BloFin Academy
BloFin Academy|Apr 24, 2025 18:38
Whales' Market Wrap: Apr 24 BTC 30D ATM IV: 49.94% | ETH 30D ATM IV: 66.75% | SOL 30D ATM IV: 81.44% SPX 30D ATM IV: 23.81% | QQQ 30D ATM IV: 32.03% | GLD 30D ATM IV: 29.09% BTC annualised 1yr implied yield: 6.92% ETH annualised 1yr implied yield: 5.55% As expected, the stock market's rebound has been mild. The tariff issue still makes institutional investors cautious, and many signs currently indicate that investors increasing their exposure to equity assets are mainly retail. At the same time, institutions continue to increase their exposure to macro assets such as gold and BTC. A typical sign can be found in the crypto market. The open interest of BTC futures (note: not perpetual swaps) has rebounded significantly since mid-April. On exchanges like CME @Interest_Rates and @DeribitOfficial , the recovery of BTC option holdings has accelerated, and even the option interest of option contracts on the CME exchange has returned to its previous high. At the same time, the implied forward yield of BTC has remained stable as the price rises. The above situation means that institutional demand is one of the main factors supporting the current BTC price. The demand for spots and long exposure has also driven the need for hedging and risk management, contributing to the overall recovery of carry trade and spot returns. In contrast, we have not found any signs of institutional interest returning in ETH and other altcoins. While ETH prices are rising, ETH's implied forward yields have declined slightly, and futures and options positions have not increased significantly following the quarterly settlement in March. At the same time, ETH has a higher funding rate than BTC. The above situation shows that the current driving force behind ETH prices comes more from retail investors than from institutions, and retail leverage is the primary driver of ETH prices, rather than the increase in institutional positions. As a result, the gold-to-SPX ratio remains at a relatively high level in both the US stock market and the crypto market. Meanwhile, BTC's market share in the crypto market has steadily increased, further squeezing the equity token market. The latest attitudes of regulators in various countries have also promoted further changes within the crypto market. Whether it is the further lifting of the ban on the banking industry's participation in BTC transactions or the discussion between the SEC and the RWA platform @OndoFinance regarding RWA, the current compliance environment is favourable primarily to BTC and traditional market exposure. In the future, regulators may only accept a limited amount of crypto-native exposure, which investors are gradually factoring into their pricing, which is not good news for the altcoin market.
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