Top macro experts discuss US tariff policies and their impact. Recently, the Capital podcast program gathered three experts who have made significant contributions in the fields of macroeconomics and asset allocation. Under the leadership of Ted Seides, the four of them conducted in-depth discussions on the changes in global markets and geopolitical patterns, as well as the direction of US assets, and analyzed how investors should respond to this profound period of change. The lineup for this conversation can be called the "strongest on the surface" macro level, with the three big shots being: 1) James Aitken, founder of independent consulting firm Aitken Advisors, is renowned for his profound understanding of the workings of the global financial system, particularly adept at analyzing the structural impact of US dollar liquidity, shadow banking system, and central bank policies on the market. As a well-known macro strategy advisor, James has worked for Swiss banks and London hedge fund Lansdowne Partners, and gained fame for accurately assessing market risks before the 2008 financial crisis. 2. Marko Papic previously served as Chief Strategist and Vice President of Macro Geopolitics at BCA Research, responsible for integrating global political developments with macro asset allocation analysis. Marko later founded the Clocktower Group macro strategy team and authored the bestselling book 'Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future'. 3. Louis Vincent Gave is a co-founder of Gavekal Research, which specializes in macro research. His father, Charles Gave, is also a renowned economic commentator. Louis's research style is simple and profound, and is especially good at mining long-term investment themes from structural trends and institutional changes, such as de dollarization, debt foam, etc. Key points of conversation: 1. The decline of the US dollar, or rather the peak of US dollar assets, truly began in January, when the bond market began to "punish" US lawmakers. The White House may not really care so much about stocks, they are more concerned about bond yields, and they may have a vision that a slight recession early in this administration would be great. 2. The large-scale fiscal spending of the United States is an important factor leading to the end of the "American exceptionalism", and the Trump administration's trade policies have accelerated this process. Global surplus/marginal capital is seeking new investment destinations. We are in a multipolar world rather than a binary world, and investors are always misled by a 'pseudo Cold War model'. 3. In policy induced recession, what really matters is not the data itself, but the "second derivative" of the policy (i.e. the marginal trend of policy change). 4. The essence of the end of 'American exceptionalism' is that the United States no longer maintains outstanding performance compared to other regions in the world. The US market may have seen a bottom, and the next five-year cycle will be when US assets underperform globally; If someone still says the market is' oversold 'now, then it may be necessary to calm down. 5. The asset performance of the United States is increasingly resembling that of an emerging market country, and we are entering a weak dollar era where capital will flow into areas that are currently severely undervalued. Even if the United States engages in large-scale tariff trade negotiations with Japan, South Korea, and other countries, it is too late to prevent the impact on confidence, capital expenditures, business spending, and soon consumer behavior. 6. Trump's actual pursuit may be a comprehensive tariff of 5% to 10%, rather than 40%. Once the market senses this, it is very dangerous to be overly bearish on risky assets. James believes that if the United States can maintain its credibility, address fiscal issues, and soften its trade policies, it may once again attract capital; Marko believes that safe haven funds will only flow back to the United States in a panicked manner in the event of a geopolitical crisis or military conflict. 7. In the past decade, private banks around the world have made a lot of money by selling structured products to private clients. If these products are triggered under unfavorable market conditions, the impact could be much larger than the scale of the Madoff fraud in 2008 ($10 billion), involving hundreds or even trillions of dollars. 8. Experts have predicted the winners and losers of the market in the coming year, including Canada, Europe, Japan, non aligned countries, and commodities; The loser is undoubtedly the United States. Full text of the Chinese version of the conversation: https://mp.weixin. (qq.com)/s/x7KayHUaOYhE4STObI72tw