Is it like this when the 6 trillion dollar daily US Treasury bond matures on June? Recently, many people said that "US $9 trillion treasury bond will mature in 2025, and more than 6 trillion will be concentrated in June", which caused market concern and many friends were asking. The actual situation is not like that, we need to talk about: 1. In recent two or three years, the U.S. Treasury Department has mainly issued short-term treasury bond, which has been continuously rolling and recycling. Taking 2023 as an example, short-term bonds with a maturity of less than one year account for 85%, while medium - and long-term bonds account for only 15%. Therefore, the maturity scale of any year will appear "inflated" due to the renewal of short-term bonds. In fact, the monthly treasury bond due in 2024 will exceed $100 billion. 2. It can be seen from Figure 1 that the largest proportion of US bonds due this year is also short-term bonds. The main reason is that after October 2023, the US Treasury Department adjusted the issuance structure of treasury bond and increased the issuance proportion of short-term treasury bond, which led to an increase in the monthly rolling maturity of short-term treasury bond, leading to a significant increase in the maturity of short-term treasury bond after October 2023. 3. According to the latest data, the maturity amounts from April to June were 2.36 trillion, 1.64 trillion, and 1.20 trillion, respectively (Figure 2). The April maturity with the highest certainty is significantly lower than that of April, October, and December 2024, and many Tbills due in May and June have not yet been issued, and their issuance is not accurately predicted in advance like long bonds, so it is not possible to strictly estimate the actual maturity of US bonds in May and June. But in any case, there will not be a monthly maturity of 6 trillion yuan. The reason is that before the bond limit expires, the issuance of US bonds cannot exceed the remaining funds of the US bond maturity+G Fund (i.e. external measure). It is expected that the actual maturity amount in June should be around 2 trillion yuan 4. In the short term, it is very flexible. In extreme cases, the Ministry of Finance can issue cash management bonds (CMBs) with a maturity of one day, which can almost be seen as a replacement for reserves and overnight repurchases - as long as its interest rate is a few basis points higher than SOFR, EFFR, IORB, ONRRPrate, etc., 6 trillion MMF+340 trillion bank reserve funds will flood the market significantly. Therefore, Tbills' interest rates are mainly influenced by the current and short-term policy interest rate expectations of the Federal Reserve, and are less affected by supply changes. So normally, US Treasury bonds with a maturity of $2 trillion per month (over 80% of which are short-term bonds) and the Treasury Department have the tools to raise funds for maturity and renewal, which will not affect market liquidity. 5. If you have an impression, in the past two years, the overall bond issuance scale of the Ministry of Finance has basically exceeded $10 trillion each year. Of course, the net increase in US bond volume is over $2 trillion (matching the deficit), and the rest has been borrowed to repay the old (which does not affect the overall debt scale change). 6. Of course, it is wrong to say that there is no risk at all. After the debt ceiling problem is solved in the next two or three quarters, the TGA account replenishment may increase the pressure on the net supply of US debt. Therefore, the high maturity scale of treasury bond may increase the pressure on the supply and demand of the treasury bond market (especially at the level of medium and long-term debt issuance). Moreover, if Trump's policies continue to fluctuate and make investors more worried about questioning the safe asset status of US Treasuries and the US dollar, US Treasuries will need to provide a higher risk premium to attract investors, which in itself will exacerbate concerns about fiscal sustainability. However, it should be noted that this risk is not the same as the widely feared risk of the June high volume of US bonds maturing (which is clearly different).