區塊先生 🐡 ⚠️ (rock #58)
區塊先生 🐡 ⚠️ (rock #58)|Apr 21, 2025 14:02
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has plummeted by over 10.4 points (-9.67%) in the past three months and is currently at 97.828, marking a rare rapid decline in the past two years. This kind of decline in speed and magnitude has only occurred in specific major crises or policy shifts in the past. ⚠️⚠️⚠️ Similar situations in history? Before and after the 2008 financial tsunami (DXY from 88 to 71) Due to the Fed's emergency interest rate cut and the launch of QE, the liquidity of the US dollar has been greatly released, and safe haven assets (gold, Japanese yen) have skyrocketed. After the 2020 COVID-19 crisis (DXY from 102 to 89) The largest fiscal stimulus and monetary easing in history, with funds flowing into risky assets. 3. Current situation (2024-2025) If there is an unexpected interest rate cut or a global acceleration of de dollarization (such as the shaking of the oil dollar system or central bank buying gold), it will also lead to such a sharp decline. ⚠️⚠️⚠️ What is the special feature of this round? Gold prices soar to historic highs above $3300 The negative correlation between gold and the US dollar is very strong. This surge in gold prices reflects a decline in global confidence in fiat currencies and the "de dollarization" of central banks around the world, especially in China, Russia, and the Middle East. Bitcoin and encrypted assets also rose simultaneously Cryptocurrency assets are increasingly seen as' digital gold ', and the weakness of the US dollar has driven an increase in demand for them as safe haven assets. Real interest rates in the United States may turn negative Inflation is slowing down, and if the Fed turns dovish early, it will cause real interest rates to fall into negative territory again, further suppressing the US dollar. ⚠️⚠️⚠️ 1. Allocate safe haven assets Gold: Long term anti inflation asset, the hard asset that the central bank buys the most. • Mainstream encrypted assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum: a new generation of safe haven assets with high liquidity and cross-border capabilities. • Emerging market assets Commodity markets, such as crude oil and copper, typically also benefit from the depreciation of the US dollar.
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