Does Pump pull unexpectedly like this? Actually, there were already signs The only correct solution for this market is to trade like Shandong people: valuation algorithms are not as good as Zhuang's view What is Zhuang's view: For the two opposing parties that can play a decisive role in market value, the Zhuang Group (team, funding MM, mouse warehouse) and the exchange, the operation method that maximizes profits To write this essay clearly, if you don't take the civil service exam to enter the MM or core department of the exchange, you need to try your best to understand the following common sense: 1. Cash is king Whether you like it or not, based on the data, it is currently a spot bear market. As a TGE project team, do you choose to buy several million USD of your own tokens to live and die with the community, or do you prefer to receive cash first? Honest project parties will choose the former, and after buying, they will silently withstand the community's insults while watching the K-line continue to decline. They have a clear conscience Smart project teams will choose the latter, leaving the green mountains behind and not afraid of running out of firewood. Key stakeholders should not be offended. If they still have funds on hand, they can switch locations and fight again. When spring warms up and flowers bloom, the three bullish candlesticks will change the fundamentals 2. Spot goods are useless Before the release of the CB announcement, Kernel's spot trading volume was only 60M. A Binance spot project party, this is almost equivalent to being unable to cash out. In fact, it has been like this since GPS went live and Whisper risked its life to spend 5 million, even earlier So the only thing we can rely on is futures. Before the CB news, the trading volume of Kernel 229M futures was announced, and after a wave of explosive growth, even I was hit with a stop loss. This is the official correct answer for this version 3. The project party and the exchange are trading against each other This can be considered an unspoken insider, as exchanges have quantitative teams involved in trading, especially small exchanges that have KPI indicators for each coin. Where does performance come from? Listing fees, listing exchange shares, and margin penalties. Failing to achieve performance or even losing money to competitors, and even resorting to shady tactics, data smashing is just the most superficial form Since there is no available spot market, the real competitors in the market are Project Bank and the exchange Based on these, fellow Shandong residents in the cryptocurrency industry can make a basic judgment: 1. Control variables The exchange is able to compete with the project party mainly because both parties have spot chips. What if the exchange doesn't have it? Pump and these Binance wallet IDOs follow this logic. Although 15 million FDV gave 5% of the wallet IDO, it was still better than giving Binance spot market share and even switching to a Perp. Not being able to attend can be considered a blessing in disguise 2. Maximizing benefits Pump almost experienced a sudden drop on the chain after IDO, making it the worst performing IDO. After BR, the IDO project party has no guarantee of spot goods, so there is no need to engage in false prosperity on the chain to maintain market value. Cash is king, while the control rate is high At the critical time point of the contract on the 12th, Huigen will be tested: the MC on the 11th is 27M, which means the valuation is 50M. If Roofdata's data is correct, PumpBTC once raised 10M, so the valuation is between 60-80M. To be listed on Binance, it needs to be locked in for at least 1 year. A BTC staking TVL project party, investors are all giving to TVL's big brother. Even a bull market of 1800BTC is going to cause trouble. Do you guess at this point in time, he needs the gentry and tycoons to repay him in full? Is it best for him to maximize his benefits by buying contracts and spot goods, or by smashing them? When will the network be closed I personally tend to think about three points: -Both on chain spot and Bybit have not seen a significant increase in volume -Bottom 3x up, funding rate still 0.005%, long short ratio 1:7 - OI 12.5M Dear friend from Shandong, if you were an exchange, would you incur significant losses on this data and have to resort to ADL instead? If you are Zhuang, is the depth at this point deep enough for you to launch a beautiful IP style drilling and then take a counterattack to raise the Dragon King of Lushan By this point, you are already half qualified to be a native of Shandong in the cryptocurrency industry