Summary of Fed Chairman Powell's speech (with full text attached): Cryptocurrency is a good thing that can serve as a truly circulating reserve; If there is a shortage of US dollars, the Federal Reserve is prepared to provide dollars to central banks worldwide. Don't expect the Federal Reserve to intervene and rescue the market! Trump's tariffs are changing every day! Compared to last time, there are several differences worth noting: 1. Inflation: Previously mentioned that there may be stagflation or short-term inflation in the future, but this time it is explicitly stated that there is a possibility of long-term inflation, which requires more attention; 2. Employment: Last time it was said that non farm employment was still strong, but this time it is said that employment may be close to its maximum, with a decrease in immigration and job opportunities, and overall employment is relatively balanced. Between long-term inflation and employment, inflation will still be preferred. 3. Upgrading the risk of this conflict: More systemic risks were mentioned, such as a decrease in trust in the US dollar and a decrease in trust in US dollar assets; The scale of US Treasury bonds is unsustainable and needs to be optimized; Some banks may have risks and need to be rescued, we are closely monitoring; There may be issues with the liquidity of the US dollar, and we will promptly replenish it 4. Decreased confidence: Previously, it was said that we would handle this issue well, but this time it is said that we do not have real experience to face the unpredictable trade conflicts like the Golden Retriever 5. Wait and see before cutting interest rates: highly uncertain, uncertain for businesses, uncertain for individual consumers, uncertain for myself Powell, the economy may slow down. I need clearer information to make a decision, and I will wait and see before anything really happens 6. Say to Jin Mao: Fuck you, Fed is independent, you can't control me, I won't be influenced by you, you can't dismiss me unless the law is amended. 7. Opinion on the industry: The risks brought by the automotive industry may continue to exist; The cryptocurrency market is a good thing that can be regulated as a truly circulating reserve; Ai is still in the early days, and the foam will not burst. Overall, I think Jinmao will explode and seek opportunities to replace people. 🟨 Summary of Powell's Speech: Thank you for your introduction. I am looking forward to today's exchange, Professor Rajan. Firstly, I will briefly discuss the prospects of the economy and monetary policy. At the Federal Reserve, we have always been focused on the "dual mission" goals assigned to us by Congress: achieving maximum employment and price stability. Despite rising uncertainty and increased downside risks, the overall US economy remains in a robust state. The labor market has reached or is approaching its maximum employment level. Although inflation has significantly decreased, it is still slightly higher than our target of 2%. Latest economic data Regarding the latest data, we will obtain preliminary readings of the first quarter GDP in a few weeks. Based on the data currently available, the economic growth rate in the first quarter has slowed down compared to last year's strong level. Although car sales have shown strong performance, overall consumer spending has only grown moderately. In addition, due to companies attempting to import ahead of potential tariffs, strong imports in the first quarter will have a drag on GDP growth. Surveys from households and businesses show a significant decline in confidence, and the high level of uncertainty about the outlook is mainly due to trade policy concerns. External forecasting agencies are lowering their expectations for full year economic growth, with an overall view leaning towards slower growth but still maintaining positive growth. We are closely tracking the evolution of this data and observing how households and businesses adapt to these new changes. In terms of the labor market, in the first three months of this year, non farm employment increased by about 150000 jobs per month. Although the growth rate has slowed down compared to last year, the low layoff rate and slower labor force growth have kept the unemployment rate in a low and stable range. Meanwhile, the ratio of job vacancies to the number of job seekers is slightly higher than 1, which is close to the pre pandemic level. Although wage growth has been moderate, it still outperforms inflation. Overall, the labor market is stable and in a state of supply-demand balance, and has not become the main source of inflation. In terms of prices, inflation has significantly fallen from the peak of the epidemic in mid-2022, and it has not been accompanied by a sharp increase in unemployment rate, which is a common phenomenon in controlling high inflation in the past. The current rate of inflation decline is moderate, with the latest data still above the 2% target. According to the data released last week, PCE rose by 2.3% in March, and if food and energy are excluded, core PCE rose by 2.6%. Looking ahead, the new government is driving significant policy changes in four major areas: trade, immigration, finance, and regulation. These policies are still in the formative stage, and their impact on the economy is highly uncertain. We will continue to update the evaluation as our understanding deepens. The currently announced tariff increase far exceeds market expectations, and its economic impact may also exceed expectations, including higher inflation and slower growth. Both surveys and market indicators have shown a significant upward trend in short-term inflation expectations, which survey respondents generally attribute to tariffs. However, long-term inflation expectations remain generally stable, and market implied inflation expectations (breakeven) are also maintained at a level close to 2%. monetary policy As we gain a deeper understanding of these policy changes, we will be able to more accurately assess their impact on the economy, thereby guiding monetary policy decisions. It can be certain that tariffs will almost certainly push up short-term inflation, and their impact may even last longer. Whether we can avoid this persistent inflationary impact depends on three factors: the scale of the impact, the length of time it takes to transmit to prices, and whether we can firmly anchor long-term inflation expectations. Our responsibility is to ensure that long-term inflation expectations remain stable and prevent a one-time price increase from escalating into a persistent inflation problem. In fulfilling this responsibility, we will weigh the two goals of maximum employment and price stability. We know that without price stability, we cannot achieve a strong long-term job market, which will eventually hurt all Americans. We may also face a challenging situation where two goals conflict. In that case, we will evaluate the economic distance to each target and consider the time differences in their respective implementations. conclusion As Chicago resident Ferris Bueller once said, "The pace of life is fast." Currently, we are in a favorable position to "wait and see" and not rush to adjust our monetary policy stance until we receive clearer signals. We will continue to analyze the constantly updated data, changes in prospects, and risk balance. We are well aware that high inflation or unemployment can cause serious harm to communities, families, and businesses. We will make every effort to achieve the mission of maximum employment and price stability. Thank you all, I am looking forward to the next questioning session.