The Strategic Reasons for Trump's Tariff Policy Adjustment and Potential Risks in the Future 1. Policy repetition ≠ strategic shift: the truth behind tactical compromise The Trump administration recently announced a 90 day suspension of tariffs on 75 countries (reducing the tax rate to 10%), but the tariffs on China have risen to 145%. This "exemption and pressure parallel" strategy exposes its core intention: to alleviate financial pressure through short-term policies, rather than giving up trade war tools. Financial pressure policy adjustment: The collapse of the US Treasury market is the direct cause. On April 7-9, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.59%, and the 30-year yield surged by 60 basis points in a single day, triggering a collapse in hedge fund basis arbitrage and forcing Trump to compromise to avoid a systemic crisis. Political performance logic: Increasing taxes on China to 145% is more of a "fig leaf" operation, with limited actual effectiveness. The economic and trade relations between China and the United States have been substantially interrupted when tariffs on both sides rose to 84%/125%, and further escalation is only to maintain bargaining chips. 2. The US dollar credit crisis and increasing economic vulnerability The market mistakenly sees policy respite as a risk relief, but in reality, deep-seated contradictions are still fermenting: Signal of collapse of US dollar hegemony: The US dollar index fell below the 100 mark, and major creditor countries such as China and Japan sold off US bonds (China's holdings dropped to $759 billion, a 15 year low). The gold/silver ratio broke through 100, reflecting the collapse of market trust in the US dollar system. The impact of economic lag is evident: even if some goods are exempt from tariffs, companies still bear rising logistics costs (such as transit trade costs+58%) and supply chain transfer pressure (Tesla reduces production by 30%). Policy uncertainty leads to delayed investment by enterprises, forming a vicious cycle of "shrinking demand - inventory backlog". 3. Potential risks in the future The current calm period carries three hidden risks: Liquidity trap: The decline of the VIX index masks the risk of liquidity depletion in the US Treasury market, and systemic risks similar to the 2022 UK "mini budget" crisis may still reoccur. Wall Street Arbitrage Carnival: Policy fluctuations provide themes for high-frequency trading, and financial institutions harvest wealth through "short reversal long", exacerbating market fragility. • Acceleration of the multipolar monetary system: German treasury bond has replaced US bonds as a benchmark for risk aversion, RMB gold pricing power has been improved, and the unipolar position of the US dollar has further collapsed. Conclusion: Breathing before the storm Trump's' tactical retreat 'is only a temporary solution, and if US bond rates spiral out of control or economic data deteriorates within the 90 day window, the tariff war may escalate again. Investors need to be wary of the resonance between policy fluctuations, sudden liquidity changes, and recession expectations, and avoid falling into the optimistic trap of "misjudgment and surrender".