
奇迹|Apr 11, 2025 09:59
Is the market calm despite a significant drop in US inflation? 5 key points to understand 🌈🌈🌈
1. Inflation data hit a new low
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose only 2.4% year-on-year in March, lower than February's 2.8% and below market forecasts of 2.6%, the lowest since early 2021.
2. The market response is flat
The market's response to the news of slowing inflation has been lackluster. One is that the decline is within expectations, only slightly lower than predicted; Secondly, basic inflation remains stubborn, and even after removing volatile products and energy, it remains above the 2% target; Thirdly, the market has already taken into account the interest rate decline in advance and is now waiting for confirmation from the Federal Reserve's action.
3. The Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Trends
The expectation of interest rate cuts has intensified but remains uncertain. The 'doves' believe that inflation will cool down and interest rates will be cut for the first time in June July 2025; But the Federal Reserve hopes to see a sustained decline in core inflation, and one report cannot represent the trend. It is expected that there may be 1-2 interest rate cuts in 2025, without large-scale easing.
4. Positive news for the cryptocurrency market
This is a positive signal for the cryptocurrency market, as a more moderate Federal Reserve policy means a decrease in bond yields and an increase in investor interest in risky assets (including cryptocurrencies). Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others typically rise due to macro news, especially when the US dollar may become cheaper.
5. Restricted growth in encryption
Cryptocurrency growth is limited, and traders not only need confirmation of inflation data, but also confirmation of Federal Reserve policies. Currently, the Federal Reserve is still "hawkish", and the cryptocurrency market is waiting.
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