I have been emphasizing the analysis of rebound or reversal in my homework for several consecutive days. Currently, the market, whether from the perspective of liquidity, macro perspective, or even data field, has not reached the standard of reversal. In fact, the simplest is the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. Since the dot matrix in March, several Federal Reserve officials have sent messages indicating that there are no plans to continue interest rate cuts in the short term. This means that the high interest rate will remain for some time, and Trump's tariff policy has made inflation and recession the sword of Damocles. The longer the delay, the greater the risk. Not only cryptocurrencies, but even the US stock market is maintaining this state. But it doesn't mean it's a bear market now. If we look at liquidity, we have indeed entered a bear market, but Bitcoin and the US stock market still haven't experienced a significant decline, and it doesn't conform to the trend of a bear market. Therefore, it is highly likely that we are still in a game period. And the weight may be the trend of inflation after the implementation of tariffs. Today's decline should be a safe haven for tomorrow's core PCE and the University of Michigan inflation index, especially for the core PCE, which is the most important data for the Federal Reserve. The previous value was 2.6%, and the market expectation was 2.7%, indicating that even without the implementation of tariffs, there is a possibility of slight fluctuations in inflation, let alone after the new tariffs are added. Moreover, the one-year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan is still 4.9%. The political factors behind this data are too significant, to the point where the Federal Reserve has already publicly stated its stance. Another important data to note is personal expenditure and monthly income data. An increase in expenditure often indicates a higher willingness of consumers to consume, but a decrease in income is likely to become unfavorable data for low-income high consumption. Therefore, it is also very normal for investors to choose safe haven. Looking back at the data of Bitcoin itself, the decline in trading volume is also reflected in the turnover rate, with investors participating in turnover continuing to decrease. This data is consistent with the conclusion of ETFs, that more investors are unwilling to buy or sell, probably waiting for a clearer entry time. We have encountered this situation in both 2023 and 2024, which were eight months of garbage time. However, the current trading volume is even lower than these two times, indicating that the liquidity is worse than before, and more investors are unwilling to invest their funds in Bitcoin, BTC is still like this, let alone anything else. The only data that can still be passed is the dense chip concentration area between $93000 and $98000, and the selling in this area continues to decrease. The emotions of loss making investors are still very stable, but this is all because there has not been a clear bearish trend yet. The variables in April will be even greater. This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex