Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Azuma (@azuma_eth)

SpaceX's trillion-level super IPO is finally coming.

You opened the exchange, wanting to pre-build a position before the IPO, but suddenly you found that... SPCX is temporarily priced at 169 USDT on Binance, 155 USDT on OKX, and 154 USDC on Hyperliquid. The pre-market contract prices on the three platforms are different, especially the huge price difference between Binance and the latter two - what is the reason for this?

In simple terms, the reason for this situation is that partly it is due to the different independent price discovery mechanisms of different platforms, but more importantly, the equity data and valuation calculation methods used by each platform are not completely the same.

First, it must be stated that whether on Binance, OKX, Bitget, or Hyperliquid, the currently listed SPCX is not the actual stock of SpaceX, but rather a derivative designed around the future IPO price. These products will ultimately be settled according to the market value and equity data after SpaceX's IPO, so their price essentially reflects the market's expectation of SpaceX's final valuation, and since SpaceX is not yet publicly listed, these expected prices do not have a definitive anchor standard. This uncertainty is the source of the current market price disparity games.

Differences in Equity Data Among Three Major Exchanges

Looking back at the historical announcements from Binance, OKX, and Hyperliquid regarding the listing of SpaceX's pre-market contracts.

OKX listed the SPACEX pre-market contract on May 7, with an initial estimated equity amount of 1 billion shares, so the contract price of SPACEX was continuously above 2000 USDT when it first launched; then on June 2, OKX adjusted the equity number to 12.52 billion shares based on SpaceX's S-1 document(Note: This adjustment process is referred to as Rebase, and this description will be used below), and renamed the SPACEX pre-market contract to SPCX pre-market contract, correspondingly, the contract price of SPCX was also "adjusted" to the range of 150 - 200 USDT.

Hyperliquid launched the SPCX pre-market contract on May 17 through the HIP-3 market Trade.xyz, regarding equity calculations, Trade.xyz initially disclosed that it used approximately 11.87 billion shares based on private market transaction data, but the community found that Trade.xyz subsequently deleted the related statements in the documentation.

Binance launched the SPCX pre-market contract trading on May 21, with the initial equity number also being 11.87 billion shares; on the evening of June 8, Binance announced it would Rebase the SPCX, adjusting the equity number directly to the latest 13.08 billion shares disclosed in the IPO plan (5.56 million shares from the IPO increase were added compared to the 12.52 billion shares in the S-1), with the Rebase set to take place at 16:30 Beijing time tomorrow.

To summarize, the current situation is already quite clear:

• OKX is currently using the equity data of 12.52 billion shares from the S-1 document, and whether it will Rebase again remains uncertain;
• Hyperliquid (Trade.xyz) previously disclosed 11.87 billion shares, but due to the deletion of the related statements, the market estimates a very low possibility of future Rebase, which may default to having tracked the actual equity;
• Binance is currently using the equity data of 11.87 billion shares, but will Rebase to 13.08 billion shares tomorrow.

Actual Price Comparison Among Three Major Platforms

With the above equity data, we can use the real-time prices to calculate the "real price" reflected by the SPCX pre-market contracts on the three major platforms.

As of 17:00 Beijing time, the real-time quotes for the SPCX pre-market contracts on Binance, OKX, and Hyperliquid are 169.62 USDT, 155.35 USDT, and 154.62 USDC, respectively.

Taking this static data and combining it with the equity data mentioned earlier, we can derive the following calculations:

• Binance is currently quoted at 169.62 USDT, and after completing the Rebase tomorrow, it will adjust to 154.2 USDT;
• OKX is currently quoted at 155.35 USDT, and if it executes Rebase again (adjusting to 13.08 billion shares), the corresponding price will be 148.7 USDT;
• Hyperliquid is currently quoted at 154.62 USDC, and if Rebase is executed, the corresponding price will be 140.3 USDC.

At first glance, isn’t the price on Hyperliquid the cheapest? Hold on! The current situation is that the market expects that OKX and Hyperliquid are very unlikely to Rebase before SpaceX completes its IPO.

The reason for OKX is that it has already undergone one Rebase, and the official documentation regarding the pre-market contract only mentioned "it will be based on the equity data in the S-1 document to Rebase,” which has now been completed.

Regarding Hyperliquid, one can refer to the analysis by the arbitrage expert "Silicon-based Bird | Ray" (X: @limxn6), noting that the possibility of future Rebase is extremely low.

So the current situation is that, while it seems that prices on OKX and Hyperliquid after Rebase are quite attractive, this price may very well not appear at all.

A more realistic price comparison should be: Binance (154.2 USDT) Hyperliquid (154.62 USDC) OKX (155.35 USDT).

From this, we can draw two conclusions. First, the price of OKX and Hyperliquid compared to Binance has almost no arbitrage space (after Binance announced Rebase last night, the arbitrage space once reached as high as 10%); Second, the premium of OKX and Hyperliquid can still be attributed to the market pricing the minuscule possibility of Rebase, and the higher premium of OKX indicates its higher likelihood of Rebase compared to Hyperliquid.

Using Different Rulers to Measure the Same Thing

As the date of SpaceX’s IPO approaches, and with the gradual clarification of market rules, the best arbitrage window may have already passed; but for ordinary investors, this price game surrounding SPCX provides an excellent sample to observe the logic of market operations in the pre-market.

Many people tend to directly interpret pre-market contract prices as "future stock prices," but through the above dissection, it is not hard to see that pre-market market transactions are not just a simple number. Behind the prices lies the market's judgment of the company's future valuation, as well as the exchanges' product design, equity standard choices, and participants' expectations of rule changes.

In other words, when you see different quotes for SPCX on Binance, OKX, and Hyperliquid, they do not necessarily indicate a huge divergence in the market's view on SpaceX, but rather, it is more likely that they are measuring the same target using different rulers.

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