Original ｜Odaily Planet Daily（@OdailyChina）

Author｜Golem（@web3_golem）

How much market credibility does Arthur Hayes have left? Recently, the "father of crypto perpetual contracts," BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has faced public criticism, and on-chain detective ZachXBT also publicly posted an inquiry questioning how much exit liquidity he has generated using his fans.

Liquidating HYPE, NEAR, WLD

Since last week, Arthur Hayes has staged several unexpected sell-offs to take profits.

Arthur Hayes had publicly stated multiple times that HYPE would rise to $150 in this cycle. On June 1st, Arthur Hayes also reacted passionately against Kyle Samani, the former co-founder of Multicoin Capital, after he slandered Hyperliquid, and set up a $100,000 betting agreement with him. However, just three days later, Arthur Hayes announced that he had completely liquidated his holdings in HYPE and NEAR, with HYPE dropping over 13.6% on the same day. His sell-off successfully captured the peak, as HYPE, after reaching a new high of $75.5 on June 4, has been on a downward trajectory, with the current price hovering around $62-64.

In addition to selling HYPE and NEAR, Arthur Hayes also liquidated ZEC and WLD. While it might be understandable for him to sell ZEC after the Orchard Pool was attacked, his sale of WLD seemed like a classic example of a “KOL cutting leeks,” where there’s a preemptive setup, a public call for action, and a final surge to offload it.

Because from the public call for WLD to the liquidation of WLD, Arthur Hayes only “played” for 3 days. On June 3, the day before selling HYPE, Arthur Hayes publicly set a target price of $10 for WLD, believing it would become an alternative choice for investors unable to directly participate in SpaceX equity trades. After the news spread, WLD surged over 35% that day. However, by June 6, Arthur Hayes flipped his stance and claimed he had liquidated WLD, citing "abnormal" pre-market price movements of SpaceX, which caused WLD to drop more than 20% that day based on this light explanation.

The difference between Arthur Hayes and “third-rate KOLs” is that he can write essays and often provides reasonable explanations for his actions from macroeconomic and top-level design perspectives.

On June 9, Arthur Hayes published a lengthy article Reality Test (full reading takes about 20 minutes) explaining his recent actions. He believes that the rising energy costs caused by limited traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the IPOs of three major AI stocks—SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI—and Trump's shift against AI for the midterm elections will burst the AI bubble.

In light of this, his family office Maelstrom holds significant positions in U.S. listed energy producers and has sold AI-related stocks and non-core crypto assets, retaining only BTC and ETH.

Arthur Hayes' words cannot be trusted, but his actions must be monitored

Arthur Hayes' articles are not only good at using vast amounts of economic data and charts to support his views, but they sometimes incorporate political and historical perspectives that can bewilder readers. However, when you take his words at face value and invest real money to follow his actions, he might announce the next day that he has liquidated and starts to bearish on the market, as if completely forgetting what he said the day before, and your account will be impacted accordingly.

This kind of operation is not uncommon. As early as 2025, Arthur Hayes repeatedly staged the act of “being bullish one moment and liquidating the next.” The most classic example remains HYPE; in August 2025, during a speech at Japan's WebX, Arthur Hayes promoted HYPE, claiming the token had a potential rise of up to 126 times (Odaily Note: the price that day was $45.9), but just one month later, he announced he had liquidated HYPE and made millions, citing the need to avoid token unlocking risks.

Arthur Hayes' recent sell-off occurred at the peak of the last HYPE market, after which HYPE began to fluctuate downward. It wasn't until mid-January 2026 that Arthur Hayes again started to buy HYPE on a large scale. From the trends, he bought HYPE just at the low point of the current market.

Similar cases include ETHFI and ENA, where he publicly expressed bullish sentiments and then suddenly sold without warning, ultimately achieving precise peak exits. (Related reading：You're the one who ran first again! A review of Arthur Hayes' peak escape records）

Long-term followers of Arthur Hayes have summed up a methodology: do not trust Arthur Hayes' words, but keep an eye on his actions, build positions cautiously, and sell decisively when liquidating.

However, if Arthur Hayes continues to stage such acts, especially as in this recent manipulation of WLD price fluctuations, regardless of how reasonable the excuses are, his market credibility will be threatened. It is like a crypto version of the "boy who cried wolf" story; in the end, Arthur Hayes will inevitably face a backlash.

He said one thing correctly in his latest published article—“I am still a bona fide gambler,” and gamblers generally do not have good endings.

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