Today is the last trading day of July, which not only welcomes the monthly close K but also it is Friday. The market often experiences fund reallocations and the battle for the weekly close, so it is expected that the volatility throughout the day will remain at a high level, with both bulls and bears more fiercely competing around key price levels.
From the perspective of the monthly line structure, this round of adjustment is more like a correction during the rising process, with a relatively low probability of a deep retreat. The July monthly line is highly likely to close with a medium bullish candle (or a stronger bullish candle) after a bottom rebound, and the overall rebound pattern has not been significantly damaged.
On the weekly line, it still maintains the bottom exploration and rebound rhythm, and whether it can continue to rebound today will directly affect the final closing shape of the weekly line this week, setting the tone for the market at the beginning of August.
From a technical perspective, the market has entered a typical pre-direction choice:
The daily Bollinger Bands are continuously narrowing, and volatility is constantly decreasing;
The moving average system is gradually merging, with bullish and bearish forces tending to balance;
The box-shaped fluctuation has entered the end area, and the market is accumulating new trend momentum.
Generally speaking, the longer the oscillation lasts, the more likely the subsequent breakout trend will be sustainable.
However, because we are close to a turning point, there has been a significant increase in false breakouts and false breakdowns in recent trading sessions, making it easier for the main forces to use liquidity to sweep losses. Therefore, it is not advisable to blindly chase highs and lows before a real volume breakout.
The current more reasonable strategy remains:
Set stop losses strictly;
Control positions reasonably;
Be patient in the middle area, and participate in the trend after waiting for clear confirmation signals at key support or resistance levels.
₿ Bitcoin (BTC)
Viewpoint: Oscillation waiting for a breakthrough, patiently waiting for direction confirmation.
BTC is still operating within a range of oscillation, and the market has not yet completed the final direction choice.
From the daily line perspective:
The moving average system is gradually flattening, and no trend signals have yet formed;
The Bollinger Bands are continuously narrowing, indicating that a large-scale turning point is approaching;
The current price is still operating below the 50-day EMA, and there is still a certain distance from the important resistance area at a higher level, so a breakout still requires volume support.
In the past two trading days, the BTC trend has improved compared to earlier, with slightly enhanced market strength.
From the cyclical structure perspective:
8-hour and 12-hour still maintain a moderately bullish rhythm, providing time and space for a continued upward attack;
Timeframes below 1 hour continue to maintain a consolidation tug-of-war, as short-term funds are still waiting for direction confirmation.
Overall, the current market is still in a state of bullish in the large cycle, and oscillating in the short cycle.
Before a real volume breakout, the operation idea still suggests maintaining:
Near support, watch for low absorption opportunities after stabilization;
Close to resistance areas, do not blindly chase highs, and can appropriately realize some profits;
A breakout must be confirmed with volume; otherwise, remain cautious of false breakout risks.
Today not only concerns the monthly close but also affects the final shape of the weekly line, so the market rhythm may be more volatile than usual. It is more important to patiently wait for signals than to guess the direction in advance.
Key Position Reference
Support:
64300-64500
63500-63800
62000-62500
Resistance:
65200
65700
67000-67500
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This article is published by 【Huaying Community】 and only represents personal views. Due to a certain delay in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make rational judgments and operate cautiously.
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