On the first day of Changxin Technology's listing, there was a wave of margin calls. Who is betting behind the long and short game?

CN
16 hours ago

On the morning of July 27, 2026, as China's leading memory chip manufacturer Changxin Technology (CXMT) began trading, a fissure in sentiment quickly opened up in both the main and derivative markets: amidst the chase for funds, prices surged rapidly then plummeted, leading to approximately $2.3623 million in related liquidations within nearly an hour, according to AiCoin data. This scale ranked first across the entire network for the same time period, immediately thrusting this new stock into the center of the bulls and bears contest. On one side, Northeast Securities provided a valuation range of 3.2 trillion to 5.7 trillion RMB, warning that the profit and loss ratio for minority shareholders was as high as 73.76%, a highly unconventional metric; meanwhile, after initiating coverage, Nomura Securities set a target price of 116 RMB, approximately 7.76 trillion in market value, and a price-to-earnings ratio of about 20 times, elevating Changxin Technology's bullish narrative well above Micron; on the other side was the reality of shorts heavily secured on-chain and in over-the-counter contracts, where high valuation controversies quickly transformed into liquidation numbers amid price volatility, forcing leveraged traders to make directional bets in just a few minutes. On the same day, NVIDIA announced it would acquire $1 billion worth of shares in the South Korean internet giant Naver, in conjunction with Naver’s plan to cancel approximately 1 trillion Korean won of treasury shares. Following the news, its stock price briefly rose about 8% at opening, and this transaction almost coincided with the listing of Changxin Technology, providing new imaginative space for global tech sector risk exposure. According to AiCoin data, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index only rose from 26 to 30 that day, remaining in the "fear" zone. Overall global capital risk appetite had not opened up significantly, and amidst this cautious atmosphere, the high valuation controversies presented on Changxin Technology's first listing and the heavy shorts' liquidation intertwined, representing a typical amplification test of the interplay between technology capital narratives and on-chain leveraged trading.

Shorts Cleared in an Instant: The Tragedy of 270,000 Contracts on the First Day

If the high valuation reports remained a paper dispute, then the liquidation of address 0x517b served as a tangible teaching aid hanging on the chain. Within the rapid price rise on the day of listing, this trader’s 272,505 short positions on the CXMT perpetual contract were instantaneously liquidated, transforming their position from "heavy shorting" to a "zero record" in a matter of minutes. According to AiCoin data, the single-loss amount was about $249,000. The 270,000 contracts, perhaps just an expression of an aggressive bearish viewpoint under stable conditions, were pushed to become a "liquidation in seconds" case in the face of the intense fluctuations on the first day.

More strikingly, this was not an isolated incident. During the same time frame, the cumulative liquidation amount related to CXMT reached approximately $2.3623 million, ranking first on the network liquidation leaderboard, with heightened risk concentrated on this newly listed entity. For the remaining bears, the liquidation of 0x517b was not merely someone else's loss screenshot but a real reference point for "how fierce the first-day market can be": high valuation controversies may persist, but underestimating the destructive power of overlapping volatility and leverage could lead to the reoccurrence of a $249,000 loss trajectory in the next round of upswings. This liquidation tragedy thus became an undeniable risk signal for all participants on Changxin Technology's first day of trading.

The Biggest Bear Goes Against the Trend: $17 Million Bet on Overvaluation

At the same time that 0x517b was being cleared from the field, according to AiCoin data, the address with the largest position on Changxin Technology's contracts did not choose to reduce its position to cut losses but rather continued to add shorts against the rising price. On-chain records show that the total short scale of this address has expanded to about $17.26 million, with an average opening price of about $6.4, meaning that every upward breakthrough almost always came with it adding more chips, making the entire "resistance wall" thicker. The concentration of premiums in a few addresses resulted in an exceptionally sharp appearance of liquidation risk on paper: as soon as the market experienced another rapid rise similar to the opening day's, this address could instantly transform from being the "gatekeeper of overvaluation" into the protagonist of the next huge loss screenshot.

More aggressive bears were not even satisfied with "slowly enduring heavy positions". On-chain materials (currently from a single source) indicate that another whale address had once built a near $18 million short position in CXMT with around 40 times leverage. In the environment of severe fluctuations on the first day, this was almost using the entire account to hedge against the hundreds of trillions in valuations and high target prices set by Northeast Securities and Nomura Securities. For these heavy-positioned bears, the high proportion of profit and loss for minority shareholders compared to Micron's doubled valuation levels was the core reason they dared to continue shorting at high levels; but they also understood well that under the trading structure of high volatility and leverage on the first day, any passive squeeze could turn this "valuation bubble judgment" directly into unbearable real losses, creating an extremely fierce gamble between a few heavily positioned bears and high valuation narratives.

Institutions Set 7 Trillion Valuation: Discrepancies Between Northeast and Nomura

On the first day of listing, the research report was like a pre-written script for this bet. While Northeast Securities carefully attached a footnote about the "73.76% ratio of profit and loss for minority shareholders" in their model—according to their calculations, the majority of profits for Changxin Technology in 2025 would not belong to the listed company shareholders, while this ratio for competitors like Samsung, Hynix, and Micron was less than 1%—it also cross-verified through various valuation methods to provide a valuation range of 3.2 trillion to 5.7 trillion RMB. Northeast's logic is this: first deduct this 73.76%, then talk about valuation, otherwise there will be a significant disparity between reported profits and actual shareholder benefits, which is also where the so-called "inconsistent metrics" cited by the bears stems from.

Almost simultaneously, Nomura Securities initiated coverage, directly providing a target price of 116 RMB, corresponding to about 7.76 trillion in market value and a price-to-earnings ratio of around 20 times, nearly double Micron's valuation level. This more aggressive bullish anchor was quickly amplified amidst the violent volatility on the first day: on one end was the "new coordinates of the global storage leader" depicted in the institutional reports, and on the other was the still-continuing short position buildup in on-chain contracts. They used actual liquidation losses and high leveraged positions to hedge against that optimistic narrative of doubling price-to-earnings ratios and the incomplete clarifications of profit and loss metrics for minority shareholders, while the discrepancies between the valuation ranges of 5.7 trillion and 7.76 trillion became the most prominent price battleground in this bulls versus bears contest.

NVIDIA Buys into Naver: Korean Tech Rises and Crypto Sentiment Warms

Outside the fierce contest on the day of Changxin Technology's listing, global tech capital also provided another footnote. NVIDIA announced it was investing about $1 billion to acquire shares in South Korea's internet giant Naver, while Naver concurrently planned to cancel about 1 trillion Korean won of treasury stock, directly reducing the circulating equity. This "external giant's layout + internal stock consolidation" combined move was interpreted as a clear repricing signal for Korean tech assets. After the announcement, Naver's stock price briefly rose about 8% at opening; this data currently comes from a single source, and the specific extent is yet to be further verified, but the boost in sentiment for the Korean tech sector during the opening phase was a visible reality, shifting the direction from "defense" to "willingness to pay for growth premiums".

According to AiCoin data, during the same period, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index rose from 26 to 30; although still in the "fear" zone, the marginal warming of risk appetite, combined with NVIDIA's cross-market purchase of Naver and the repricing of Korean tech stocks, formed a vague resonance. As the leader in memory chips, Changxin Technology is being pulled into the global semiconductor valuation system by domestic brokerages and international investment banks, while its contract market showcases extreme sentiment with leveraged shorts and liquidation losses intertwined on-chain. Together with NVIDIA's move to expand the Korean tech ecosystem, it has pushed the story of the "global tech chain" from research reports and announcements to the forefront of real capital exposure and on-chain positions. This is not only a magnification of valuation discrepancies on the first day of Changxin Technology's listing but also a synchronous probe of global tech assets and crypto market risk appetite.

From the First-Day Battles to Subsequent Observations: Changxin Technology Becomes Global Tech Chip

On its first day of trading, Changxin Technology, positioned between 3.2 trillion and 7.76 trillion RMB in institutional valuation anchor points, was treated by bullish funds as a "higher-priced growth story", rapidly driving up prices and pushing high-leverage shorts in the contract market to the brink of liquidation: the related liquidation amount of approximately $2.3623 million ranked first across the network, address 0x517b's 272,505 CXMT short positions were instantly liquidated with a loss of about $249,000, and the largest short position address conversely added shorts to about $17.26 million. The interweaving of shorts and enforced liquidations created the most extreme price curve on the first day and officially pushed this chip leader into the chip pool of global tech players. Meanwhile, the structural characteristic of a 73.76% profit and loss ratio for minority shareholders still loomed over pricing, creating a schism between "discount valuation" and "premium story" that has yet to be fully absorbed in price, allowing for the possibility of additional repricing and emotional fluctuations going forward. What truly needs to be monitored next is not merely the rise and fall itself, but whether the on-chain shorts will continue to add positions or be gradually squeezed out, whether Changxin Technology's fundamentals can be realized along the paths suggested by the research reports, whether brokerages and investment banks will continue to adjust their models regarding the profit and loss metrics for minority shareholders, and whether the global tech sector's risk appetite can be maintained following the NVIDIA-Naver transaction and the rise in Korean tech stocks. These variables will collectively determine whether Changxin Technology is merely a high leverage battlefield of the first day or a core chip incorporated into the global tech capital and crypto market sentiment pricing system.

Join our community to discuss and become stronger together!
AiCoin Exclusive Hyperliquid Benefits: https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/join/AICOIN88
AiCoin Exclusive Aster Benefits: https://www.asterdex.com/zh-CN/referral/9C50e2
On-chain Telegram Community: https://t.me/AiCoinWhaleData
On-chain Community: https://www.aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=N6OVMor5g
AiCoin On-chain Twitter: https://x.com/aicoinwhaledata

免责声明:本文章仅代表作者个人观点,不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享,不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议,与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权,请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com,本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。

Share To
APP

X

Telegram

Facebook

Reddit

CopyLink