The information flow is too fast, and in-depth analysis articles are easily drowned out by trending topics. The "Weekly Editor's Picks" column extracts these content with judgement value from the massive amount of information, helping you filter out the noise, retain insights, and bring inspiration.
Macroeconomic Situation
Unseen since 2007, the U.S. bond market is sounding alarms
Due to the ongoing escalation in the Middle East, oil prices breaking the hundred-dollar mark, and the rekindling of inflation expectations, U.S. bond yields have surged to multi-year highs, with the 30-year Treasury yield setting a record for the longest period at high levels since 2007, causing a drastic shift in market judgments regarding the Federal Reserve's policy path.
The interest rate market is pricing in other investors' expectations of the policy and expressing dissatisfaction with whether "hawkish inaction" is sufficient.
In the second half of 2026, commodities will enter the "high-frequency black swan" era
Citi's research covers tail risk scenarios including: the U.S.-Iran conflict evolving from temporary shocks to persistent disruptions over the years, a race to stockpile key minerals, the price of gold dropping by 15% to 20% before doubling, extreme El Niño weather impacting agricultural products, and the bursting of the AI bubble or sustained prosperity leading to bidirectional volatility. The magnitude of the price shocks could render traditional supply-demand analysis frameworks ineffective.
How did the recent deleveraging in Korean stocks occur?
Before June 23, the market had met all the conditions for a crash: leveraged products concentrated funds further into Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix; the two stocks were close to representing "half of the KOSPI"; and the regulator's statements on June 22 became a turning point for confidence.
Reviewing the deleveraging process, it experienced: Phase 1: June 23 - prices collapsed first, while debt did not decline; Phase 2: June 24 to 25 - forced liquidations and renewed leverage occurred simultaneously; Phase 3: June 26 to 30 - foreign capital withdrew, retail investors took over, and risk began to shift to the household sector; Phase 4: July 1 to 3 - global semiconductor transactions reversed, ETFs began systematically selling low and buying high; Phase 5: July 6 to 8 - "good news no longer drives rises," the market shifted from technical adjustments to concerns over sustainable profits; Phase 6: July 9 to 10 - forced liquidation data rose significantly, leverage risks spread to the U.S. and Hong Kong; Phase 7: July 13 to 15 - multiple types of sell orders occurred simultaneously, then mechanically rebounded; Phase 8: July 16 - regulation, interest rates, and semiconductors put simultaneous pressure, and deleveraging began to become institutionalized.
In summary, it is a negative feedback loop formed by "foreign capital rebalancing, retail financing to bottom fish, daily rebalancing of single-stock leveraged ETFs, forced liquidation, industry expectation reversal, regulatory policy shifts, and tightening monetary policy," which is essentially not a result of liquidity tightening or major fundamental issues.
Investment and Entrepreneurship
Where is the main battlefield for the next bull market? The answer lies in these two types of assets
The next round of cryptocurrency bull market will center around the integration of on-chain finance and traditional finance. Future market core highlights will revolve around stablecoins, asset tokenization, all-weather trading, instant settlement, and the growth of institutional-level decentralized finance (DeFi) to the scale of trillions of dollars.
Two major representative entities driving industry integration in different directions: Hyperliquid (token HYPE) and Robinhood (stock code HOOD).
The big short of BTC that perfectly timed the top is now going long after 64,000 flat
Market sentiment is extremely pessimistic, with retail investors uniformly waiting for the "four-year cycle bottom" between 40,000 and 50,000 dollars, while they choose to jump the gun, believing the bottom will arrive early;
Bitcoin is facing a structural transformation—tokenization pilot projects (with participants like BlackRock and Goldman Sachs), advancing the CLARITY Act, and accelerated entry of institutional capital, these factors are dismantling the conditions for a deeper crash;
The cryptocurrency bear market has lasted for nine months, while the stock market has just peaked, with crash funds potentially flowing into the undervalued crypto market.
The uniqueness of this unlock lies in SpaceX not following the usual 180-day uniform release after IPO, but designing a phased release arrangement to expand the circulation while minimizing the severe impact on market supply and demand.
Early investors face lucrative exit opportunities. Shorts are pressuring, and IPO market sentiment is depressed.
Also recommended: “Five historical-level indicators are lighting up simultaneously, signaling the bottom of the Bitcoin bear market”, “30% premium, decoding the craze and pitfalls of SK Hynix's cross-market arbitrage”, “Google's earnings are bright enough, but why doesn't Wall Street buy it?”.
AI
Kimi K3 is not open source yet, but overseas discussions are reshaping perceptions of Chinese AI
After the release of Kimi K3, overseas discussions shifted from model capability to Yang Zhilin's return to start a business and the attractiveness of talent in the U.S. Vinod Khosla pointed to U.S. immigration policy, while Russ Salakhutdinov stated that Yang Zhilin has the opportunity to stay in the U.S., actively returning to start a business.
The value of Kimi K3 does not lie in proving that Chinese AI is fully leading, nor in proving that the U.S. is losing the talent war. It brings to the forefront a more realistic issue: the open model, entrepreneurial environment, and talent choices are changing the global pricing references for AI.
TSMC's second-quarter results and annual guidance strengthen AI chip demand, raising the annual capital budget to 60 to 64 billion dollars.
The market divides focus on costs of building factories in the U.S., the scaling of 2nm, and long-term capital returns, with strong demand not necessarily equating to pressure-free profit margins.
Radical promotion of self-developed chips may erode their most important revenue source—the general DRAM module market. The ecosystem of CXL is being reshaped, with memory manufacturers focusing on manufacturing aspects while the design leadership shifts to independent chip design companies. For the capital market, this not only benefits related chip design companies but also indicates that the three major memory manufacturers will not engage in new competition around complete CXL solutions in the short term, with their core profit models remaining focused on traditional DIMM memory products.
Also recommended: “OpenAI's darkest week: lawsuits from Apple, Oracle downgrades, AI price wars”.
Prediction Market
HIP-4 supports permissionless deployment, can Hyperliquid kill Polymarket?
HIP-4 will support permissionless deployment in the future similar to HIP-3, with stakers required to stake 500,000 HYPE, which will be locked for six months. HIP-4 deployers can set up to 50% fees in deployed markets; this function will first be enabled on the testnet before going live on the mainnet.
While allowing users to independently initiate prediction market events somewhat mimics their own successful experiences with HIP-3, the high staker requirement for HIP-4 deployers may significantly reduce third-party competitors, missing the opportunity presented by the World Cup.
Also recommended: “Data review: how much profit did the prediction market gain from a World Cup?”.
Policies and Stablecoins
The Trump administration has agreed to include ethical provisions in the "Clarity Act" (Digital Asset Market Structure Bill), and related texts have been submitted to some Republican senators. This progress may clear obstacles for updating the bill text (expected to be announced in the coming days) and subsequent Senate votes.
At the same time, Patrick Witt, the executive director of the White House's Digital Asset Advisory Committee responsible for promoting the bill, has confirmed that he will continue in his role to help push the bill through the final sprint.
However, the U.S. Congress typically enters its summer recess around mid-August, leaving only a few working days for both parties to complete text coordination and usher the Senate review process.
Also recommended: “Revolving door deals exposed: who is tailoring the U.S. stablecoin bill for Tether?”.
Airdrop Opportunities and Interaction Guide
Popular interaction collection | AllScale points task; Skew waitlist application (July 22)
New Ecology
U.S. stock Meme, Robinhood chain has finally found its grand narrative
Meme coins are leading U.S. stock trading on the Robinhood chain, and this is very likely to be the next big opportunity on the Robinhood chain.
Security
How risky! An outsourcing employee nearly destroyed MetaMask
MetaMask was exposed in the media for an "security scandal" involving the accidental hiring of a North Korean hacker. Internal records show that the North Korean hacker was involved not in fringe projects but touched MetaMask's core wallet code and participated in the development of fiat deposit and withdrawal features for the wallet.
After the North Korean hacker worked at the company for a month, the internal security department of Consensys discovered anomalies. Ultimately, upon determination by Consensys' investigation that Tyler Knapp's true identity was a North Korean hacker, his internal access rights were immediately revoked, and law enforcement was contacted.
This security incident did not result in any loss of user assets or data.
Weekly Hotspot Review
Policies and Macroeconomic Markets
Trump: expects a "shutdown" in the U.S. federal government in September;
U.S. SEC agrees to pay 150,000 dollars to settle the Ethereum investigation information disclosure lawsuit, and will submit remaining documents;
Trump's crypto interest controversy drags down the CLARITY Act, cooling the outlook for passage within the year;
South Korea tightens trading thresholds for single-stock leveraged ETFs: as of July 31, individual investors must have 30 million won in cash;
South Korea plans to introduce an AI virtual asset regulatory framework, reporting over 30 crypto cases in two years to combat market manipulation;
South Korea's ETF market is witnessing a trend of "concentrated" investments, with funds accelerating flow into leading stocks;
Opinions and Voices
Serenity: SK Hynix ADR has a 25% premium compared to Korean stocks, conversion starts on July 29, which could lower U.S. stock prices;
Dovey Wan: South Korea may be one of the clearest top indicators for global risk assets;
HSBC: The direct inflation impact of AI is more likely to manifest in South Korea;
The correlation of Korean stocks with the Nasdaq is approaching a two-year high, becoming a barometer of global AI investment sentiment;
Citi: Upgraded China to overweight, tactically downgraded South Korea;
Jensen Huang: The chip industry still needs to expand 5 to 10 times, the Chinese model is beneficial for everyone;
SemiAnalysis: The KDA mechanism of Kimi K3 improves attention efficiency but will require more GPUs, HBM, DRAM, and networks;
Hyperliquid co-founder: The crypto industry struggles to attract top entrepreneurial talent;
Institutions, Big Companies, and Leading Projects
Intel's Q2 results and guidance vastly exceeded expectations, with AI demand driving the fastest growth in 15 years;
The Dark Side of the Moon Kimi is expected to list in Hong Kong within 6 months at the earliest;
BlackRock's Korean ETF has allocated about 25% of its positions to SK Hynix;
Kalshi has applied to the U.S. CFTC to launch perpetual futures linked to gold;
Polymarket was reported to have made about 200 million dollars in bets within six months that exhibit signs of insider trading;
BitMEX will officially close on September 23, 2026;
Movement Labs has filed for bankruptcy, with Movement Industrial and its foundation potentially becoming the biggest winners;
Data
Is the selling pressure on Bitcoin easing? Realized losses have dropped 56% from peaks, but demand recovery remains insufficient;
Over 66% of addresses are at a loss, with Polymarket's World Cup champion market showing significant profits concentrated among a few traders;
Security
The White House's "official" teleprompter operator has earned over 100,000 dollars predicting using insider information…
Attached is the series of “Weekly Editor's Picks” link. See you next time~
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
