BTC rebounded from 57800 all the way up, today reaching a high of 62980, directly and cleanly breaking through the key bearish defense line of 62400.

This wave of rise is not a strong pull from the bulls, but a complete collapse of the bears. The four-hour big bullish candle at 4 AM is crucial, with the bullish volume stabilizing and the bearish volume being directly crushed, showing almost no resistance. Bear stop-loss and liquidation orders kept emerging, instead becoming the biggest driving force for pushing the price up.

But here I want to emphasize: Don’t blindly chase after breaking 62400! Currently, the market has already formed abullish candle with an upper shadow, and the price has touched the Fibonacci 0.618 strong resistance level, making the upper pressure very obvious in the short term.

Let me mention a few key signals that could change the short-term pattern:

First,ETF funds have finally reversed. On July 3, there was a total net influx of 222 million US dollars, among whichFidelity alone saw an influx of 166 million, completely ending the outflow state that lasted for ten consecutive days. Although it's not a huge amount of capital, the trend has reversed, and this is the first time since mid-June, which is very significant.

Second, the bears have completely collapsed. In the past 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations of 174 million, among which bearish liquidations were 103 million, 1.4 times more than bullish liquidations. All the defensive orders placed by bears around 62200 were swept away, and the market surge relied on the liquidation of bears.

Third, and most critically, there is a hidden risk—large amounts of coins hoarded on exchanges. On June 30, BTC deposits on exchanges surged by 49,000 coins, occurring only four times this year. On-chain data clearly shows that the scale of individual deposits has directly doubled, indicating large institutions deliberately accumulating. After historical patterns with the same trend appeared, the market usually retraced from high levels. Now, these over 40,000 coins are hanging overhead, temporarily inactive, but are like a sword ready to fall at any moment, and this risk absolutely cannot be ignored.

Fourth, the whale camp has split and no longer holds a unified bullish view. Recently, medium-sized whales (100-1000 coins) have been continuously selling, with a 60-day cumulative outflow of over 55,000 coins, marking the strongest distribution wave recently. Although top-tier whales are still buying, their buying power has decreased significantly by 29%. Currently, only retail investors are continuing to hoard coins, with chips transferring from large funds to retail investors, this is definitely not a signal for a bull market to start, but rather a warning for potential top risks.

In four hours, this rebound touched the key resistance level of 63500 below 0.618, but there is a very obviousdivergence between volume and price. Prices are hitting new highs, but trading volume is becoming weaker, indicating that the follow-up funding from bulls is unable to keep up, and no one in the market is willing to chase higher prices.

So, there's no need to overthink it in the short term; fluctuations and pullbacks are inevitable trends.

I will directly outline the support range for this round of pullback: 60500—61500 personally leans towards a pullback, stopping the decline and stabilizing above 60500, not falling deeply; after the washout is over, the upward structure will continue.

The subsequent two major targets after this rebound are very clear: First target 65000, second target 67500

In summary: the short-term market is mainly focused on pullback washing, and this pullback is a good opportunity for buying low, not a stage top; once the chips are cleaned out, there is still upward potential. For positions held, it is advisable to take partial profits and reduce positions, while retaining the base position to bet on subsequent rebounds to new highs.

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Disclaimer: This is just a personal review of the market, not investment advice. The volatility of cryptocurrencies is severe, and contract trading carries high risks; please control your positions reasonably.

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