1. The Federal Reserve's June FOMC hawkish stance is established, and Waller's debut cancels forward guidance.
On June 18, the Federal Reserve announced the latest interest rate decision, maintaining the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% (unchanged for the fourth consecutive time), but the dot plot shifted significantly hawkish: among 18 officials, 9 expect at least one rate hike in 2026, with 5 supporting two hikes. At the same time, the meeting statement removed the "accommodative bias" wording, and newly appointed Chair Waller officially canceled forward guidance, emphasizing that the dot plot is merely "scenario judgment rather than a policy commitment." The market immediately repriced, moving the expectation for a rate hike in the year to October, driving up U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index, while risk assets came under pressure.
2. The crypto market retests the bottom, with over 120,000 people liquidated.
Impacted by the FOMC hawkish signal, Bitcoin quickly dropped from $64,800 to a daily low of $62,268, while Ethereum fell to $1,672. By noon, BTC was around $63,000, with a 24-hour decline narrowing to about 2%; ETH was around $1,710, with a decline of about 2.1%. Coinglass data shows that over the past 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations of $469 million, with more than 120,000 people liquidated, over 80% of which were long positions.
3. Sector differentiation: Meme selling pressure eases, mainstream coins weakly fluctuate.
• The Meme sector saw a significant reduction in declines from early morning: FARTCOIN led down about 8%, while PENGU, BONK, and PEPE saw their declines narrow to about 3%.
• Public chain track SOL fell about 3.3%, XRP fell about 1.5%.
• The U.S. stock market's Nasdaq rose 1.91% last night, reaching a new historical high, creating a brief divergence with the crypto market.
II. Event Impact Analysis
Macro Level: Liquidity expectations tighten, suppressing risk asset valuations.
• Short-term bearish: The hawkish shift of the dot plot directly pushed up the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, with the risk-free rate rising and applying pressure on the valuations of cryptocurrencies and other risk assets, with Bitcoin being the first to be affected as a "duration asset."
• Medium-term uncertainty: After Waller canceled the forward guidance, the market lost a clear policy anchor, and volatility may temporarily amplify; however, institutions generally believe that the hawkish extent of the dot plot is overvalued by the market. If inflation data recedes after August-September, rate hike expectations are likely to be adjusted.
Market Level: Sentiment is in the fear zone, with concentrated selling pressure being released.
• The crypto fear and greed index remains in the fear zone, and market sentiment recovery will take time.
• This round of decline is considered a "difference in expected impact" rather than a deterioration in fundamentals, and there has not been a massive withdrawal of ETF funds.
• Strong buying interest has emerged around $62,000, indicating a solid consensus support level at this position.
Regulatory Level: Medium to long-term positive trends are still advancing.
• The U.S. "Clarity Act" has passed the Senate Banking Committee, with Bitcoin and Ethereum explicitly under CFTC oversight, increasing regulatory certainty.
• The SEC has included digital assets in the strategic priorities for 2026-2030, shifting from "enforcement regulation" to "framework building."
• Japan is advancing legislation for yen stablecoins and crypto ETFs, accelerating the compliance process in Asia.
III. Technical Analysis of the Market
BTC/USDT
• Daily level: Price has broken below short-term moving averages and is overall in a downward channel; MACD green bars are shrinking but bearish momentum is not fully exhausted.
• Key Support: First support is $62,000-$61,500, strong support at $59,000 (previous low).
• Key Pressure: First pressure at $64,600 (four-hour Bollinger mid-track), second pressure at $65,800, strong pressure at $68,000.
• Shape Judgment: After the second bottoming out, there is a preliminary stabilization, but the rebound strength is weak; in the short term, it remains mainly weak fluctuations with no clear reversal signal.
ETH/USDT
• Daily level: The pullback low precisely lands on the opening price of the large bullish candle on June 15, with support efficacy slightly stronger than Bitcoin.
• Key Support: First support at $1,680-$1,670, strong support at $1,600.
• Key Pressure: First pressure at $1,750, second pressure at $1,780.
• Relative Performance: The ETH/BTC exchange rate remains stable, with Ethereum's fundamentals being stronger after the Cancun upgrade, showing slightly better resilience in declines.
IV. Operational Strategy Suggestions
Short-term trading (Intraday to 3 days)
1. Focus on shorting during rebounds: BTC can be lightly shorted when rebounding to the $64,500-$64,800 range, stop-loss at $65,200, target $63,500-$63,000.
2. Support buying during sharp declines: BTC can be bought long when falling to the $61,800-$61,500 range, stop-loss at $61,000, target $63,000-$63,500.
3. ETH synchronous strategy: Short at $1,740-$1,750 under pressure, stop-loss at $1,765, target $1,710-$1,700; short-long at $1,670-$1,680 support.
Medium-term Layout (1-4 weeks)
• Wait for signals while observing: Currently, we are in a macro-sensitive period; heavy bottom fishing is not recommended. Wait for a firm breakout above $65,800 or a second confirmation at $59,000.
• Staggered buildup ranges: $58,000-$61,000 is the medium to long-term layout range for BTC, can be entered in 3-4 batches.
• Position Control: Total position should not exceed 30%, retaining sufficient cash to respond to extreme fluctuations.
Risk Warning
Subsequent major attention should be given to inflation data in late June and speeches from officials before the July FOMC; hawkish expectations may fluctuate.
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