Original | Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )
Author | Asher ( @Asher_ 0210 )

The World Cup is approaching, and the prediction market has already started to heat up.
With more than a month of matches and 104 games, from group stages to knockout stages, different teams will take the field every day, along with new discussion points.
For this reason, the prediction market powerhouses Polymarket and Kalshi have already staked their claims for the World Cup. Polymarket has launched a special section for the World Cup, but has not yet set up a separate prize pool, or may still rely on LP for incentives; Kalshi has put forward a $1 million prize pool for champion predictions, but participation requires U.S. KYC.

Polymarket dedicated prediction interface for the World Cup
However, the excitement of the World Cup prediction market is not limited to Polymarket and Kalshi. As the event approaches, major exchanges are also joining the World Cup prediction frenzy. Below, Odaily Planet Daily will take you through various exchanges regarding their prediction activities during the World Cup.
Binance: predict.fun serves as the entrance for the World Cup prediction market, with a total prize pool exceeding $2.3 million
Among the currently announced World Cup prediction market activities, Binance's predict.fun has the highest reward scale.
It is worth mentioning that whether through the Binance main site or Binance wallet, users can access probability trading via the third-party on-chain prediction market platform predict.fun. Therefore, the prediction market activities during the World Cup at Binance are also centered around predict.fun.

Binance main site prediction section World Cup activity interface
Among them, the “Predict Cup” activity is more inclined towards the full schedule play of the World Cup (official link: https://predict.fun/world-cup). Users can choose up to 5 supported teams and make predictions on markets like match results, scores, and total goals, accumulating Fan Points to share the prize pool. The amount of rewards users receive depends on their ranking in points after each round ends, and rewards will be distributed after the conclusion of each round. The top-ranked player will always receive 15% of the prize pool and 20% in the finals, with the following breakdown for the prize pool available for each round:
- Group Stage: $70,000 per group;
- 32 Team Knockout Stage: $25,000 per match;
- 16 Team Knockout Stage: $30,000 per match;
- 8 Team Knockout Stage: $40,000 per match;
- Semi-Finals: $50,000 per match;
- Final: $260,000.

“Predict Cup” activity prize pool allocation
The Binance Wallet and predict.fun’s $300,000 PNL trading contest (Binance Wallet official X account has pinned this activity) is more focused on trading ability rankings. Users need to register through the activity page and trade in the World Cup category markets on the Binance main site prediction market or the predict.fun program in Binance Wallet. The final rankings are calculated based on the realized gains and losses during the activity, with the top 500 users satisfying the conditions receiving rewards, with the champion receiving $50,000.

Binance wallet web version prediction market activity interface
OKX: Free points for prediction participation, prize pool capped at 16.6 BTC
Unlike Binance, OKX's World Cup activities are not connected to third-party prediction markets but are based on a self-developed prediction market within the platform. Users do not need to invest money directly to participate in World Cup prediction events but can earn points by completing tasks and then use those points for World Cup event predictions.
In terms of participation thresholds, OKX's approach is more geared towards “free predictions + task incentives.” Users can earn points through signing up for activities, daily check-ins, predicting events, completing new user tasks, inviting friends, etc., and then use the points for predictions related to the World Cup.
Regarding the prize pool, OKX has adopted a dynamic unlocking mechanism. Currently, there are nearly 80,000 participants, and the current prize pool is 4 BTC (approximately $247,000). When the number of participating users exceeds 400,000, the prize pool will reach its cap of 16.6 BTC (approximately $1,020,000). Specifically, users can mainly earn points in five ways:
- Predict World Cup events to earn points;
- Register for activities to instantly receive points;
- New users complete tasks and register for activities to receive points;
- Invite friends to complete new user tasks to earn points;
- Daily check-ins to earn points.

OKX prediction section World Cup activity
Bybit: Trade to earn points, predict games with points, total prize pool up to $1 million
Bybit's World Cup activity is named Football Season 2026, focusing on trading tasks and football event predictions, with a total prize pool of up to $1 million.
The activity uses a “trade to earn points, points for predictions” mechanism. Users first earn Points by completing specific trading tasks, then use Points to participate in predicting football match outcomes. If predictions are correct, points will be magnified by the corresponding community multiplier; if predictions are wrong, points will be deducted.
The activity is divided into three phases: group stage, knockout stage, and final, with independent settlement for each phase. Users can participate in the prize pool division of that phase after acquiring at least 30 net points in a single phase, with final rewards distributed based on the proportion of net points of qualified users.

Bybit World Cup prediction activity interface
Gate: Launches World Cup section and introduces “Green Field Prophet” $500,000 activity
Currently, Gate has launched the limited-time “Green Field Prophet” World Cup activity. During the activity, users can sign up to participate, complete spot, contract, CFD, VIP upgrade, and multi-business line tasks to receive prediction market experience vouchers and betting vouchers, allowing them to participate in guessing tasks in the designated football event prediction market on Gate Polymarket, competing for points rankings, ultimate predictions for the champion, VIP jersey gift boxes, live draws, and various other benefits.
The total prize pool for the activity exceeds $500,000, including prediction market experience vouchers, USDT rewards, trading rebates, and limited football-themed merchandise.

Gate Green Field Prophet activity interface
Bitget: Main battleground at Bitget Wallet, launches $200,000 activity
Bitget's World Cup actions are mainly concentrated on Bitget Wallet. On the product level, Bitget Wallet has integrated Polymarket's World Cup prediction market, allowing users to directly participate in on-chain predictions and view AI analysis, smart fund tracking, and other auxiliary information within the wallet.
Based on this entrance, Bitget Wallet has launched the 2026 FIFA World Cup prediction market activity, with a total prize pool of $200,000, specific activities include:
- World Cup Champion Prediction, prize pool of $20,000, users can choose the team they believe will win the championship, and earn points by inviting friends. Ultimately, users who guess the champion will share the prize pool according to their points. This method does not require trading to participate and has a low threshold;
- 20-Day Prediction Winning Streak Activity, prize pool of $80,000, users participate daily in specified prediction market trading during the activity, meeting requirements to receive rewards, with a daily maximum of $10 and a total maximum of $200 for the entire activity;
- Social Viewing Party, prize pool of $50,000, after joining the Bitget Wallet viewing channel, users can participate in random red packets and exclusive airdrops during live matches;
- First Trade Protection, prize pool of $50,000, for users who use the prediction market for the first time, if there is a loss, they can receive compensation from Bitget Wallet, with limited availability on a first-come, first-served basis.
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