Six major bearish factors are fermenting simultaneously and amplifying each other, rather than having independent effects. This week on Monday, Bitcoin fell from $73396, and on Thursday it dipped to a low of $61351, creating a new low since February, nearly halving from the historical peak of $126210.50 in October 2025. Ethereum led the downturn in this round, plummeting 16% to around $1683 within the week. As the coin price approached $60000 (the largest put support barrier in the entire options market), the two major cryptocurrencies experienced a slight rebound over 24 hours: Bitcoin futures rose by 2.75%, and Ethereum rebounded by 5.71%. Market panic has not completely dissipated, but risks can now be hedged through proper pricing tools.
$60000 is not just a psychological integer barrier but also the core dividing line between bullish and bearish market trends going forward.
Six Combined Risks Trigger Deep Corrections
Direct Catalyst: MicroStrategy's First Bitcoin Sell-Off in Over Two Years
MicroStrategy sold Bitcoin for the first time since December 2022, offloading 32 coins (total value approximately $2.5 million, with an average transaction price of $77135), with the proceeds used to distribute preferred stock dividends; the amount sold only accounted for 0.004% of its total holdings of 843706 coins, and the selling price was above the holding cost, realizing a profit on exit.
The actual selling pressure was minimal, but the symbolic impact was significant: Michael Saylor's long-standing belief in holding Bitcoin without selling was shaken, leading to a swift spread of panic in the market - even the most steadfast institutional giants began to reduce their positions. In the following week, whales cumulatively sold about 25000 Bitcoins, exacerbating the sell-off from retail panic. When Bitcoin prices fell to $63083, MicroStrategy's overall holdings were in a floating loss, with an average holding cost of $75699, resulting in a paper loss of over $10000 per coin.
ETF Outflows Intensify Market Weakness
From May 15 to June 3, the spot Bitcoin ETF saw net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, setting a record for the longest outflow period since its launch in January 2024, with cumulative capital flight around $4.4 billion. In just three weeks, the total AUM of ETFs shrank from $104.29 billion to $82.83 billion.
BlackRock's IBIT alone accounted for 75% of the outflows, totaling $3.3 billion; Fidelity's FBTC saw outflows of $456 million, and Grayscale's GBTC saw outflows of $303 million. On June 4, the outflow trend paused with a small net inflow of $3.05 million, but this was only a temporary halt and not a reversal of the trend. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas noted that the continuous outflows turned the net capital into a net outflow for 2026, although the overall cumulative net inflow since the product's launch remains around $55 billion.
The Other Four Macro and Geopolitical Risks Amplify the Downturn
Large wallets transferring at Mt. Gox exchange once again raised market concerns over selling;
The macro environment continues to lean bearish: inflation is stickier than expected, market interest rate cut expectations have significantly cooled (Polymarket platform bets the probability of no rate cuts in 2026 is 66%), the dollar is strengthening, and US bond yields are rising; funds continue to pour into AI and tech sectors, with US stocks hitting new highs this week, diverging sharply from cryptocurrency trends;
On June 5, Hezbollah rejected Israel's ceasefire proposal, raising uncertainties in the Middle East, compounded by unresolved US-Iran tensions.
It is difficult for a single factor to significantly suppress coin prices; in an environment devoid of bullish catalysts, multiple bearish factors combine to trigger a deep correction.
Derivatives Data Signals and Core Interpretation
Implied Volatility IV Reaches a Secondary Bottom, Signaling Peak
During the secondary probing of the low point, implied volatility soared again; Bitcoin's near-term options IV rose to 47.47% on June 26 (up 4.14 percentage points), while Ethereum's near-term IV surged to 64.38% (an increase of 10.68 percentage points, with volatility elasticity approximately 2.6 times that of Bitcoin). On June 9, the short-term IV of contracts approached Bitcoin's 65.82% and Ethereum's 83.50%.
During intraday trading, Bitcoin's DVOL volatility index surged to 55, closing down to 48.06, a daily drop of 2.65%; Ethereum's DVOL closed at 66.31, with a slight intraday decline of 1.34%. Both volatility indices maintained high levels before turning downward synchronously, forming a typical IV peak signal: the market is wildly buying short-term put protection at low levels, after which some positions are unwound to release pressure.
Implied Skew Curve Shows Key Divergence Structure
This week’s clearest data indicator is the skew term structure:
The near-term market is filled with extreme bearish panic, on June 9, Bitcoin's near-term effective skew was -17.96, and Ethereum's was -19.58; 10 Delta deep out-of-the-money put skew worsened more obviously, reaching -33.35 and -40.61—when the coin prices approach the $60000 level, the market is willing to pay high premiums to purchase short-term downside protection.
The far-term curve has notably rebounded to a bullish position: Bitcoin’s September, December, and March next year forward skews turned positive (increases of +0.77 to +1.83 percentage points); Ethereum’s forward skew also turned positive post-August. The curve has shifted from deeply bearish across the board last week to a steep structure of “near-term deep panic, far-term pricing recovery.”
This represents the standard divergent market during a mid-downturn: short-term panic dominates the market, but far-term derivatives have begun to price in market stabilization in 3 to 6 months. The practical impact on structured products: the cost of far-term downside protection is decreasing, and the profitability of establishing long protection periods (Collar), bullish seagull structures significantly improves.
Institutional Large Positions Completely Reverse, Transitioning from Defensive Hedging to Bottom-Fishing
Last week, institutions were in a defensive mode, with buying puts accounting for 33.3%; this week, the wind completely reversed:
Large sales of puts surged to 42.0% (up 14.1 percentage points), and buying calls rose to 33.0% (up 24 percentage points); purchases of puts halved to 17.3%, while sales of calls dropped to 7.6%. Retail operations aligned with this, with retail selling puts at a 30.1% share leading the way.
Institutions switched from proactively buying protection to selling protection, focusing on bottom fishing near the $60000 put barrier, heavily selling puts and buying calls. Composite trading data corroborates the trend: 44.2% of institutional combined trades in Bitcoin were put spread strategies (selling near-term puts, buying deeper out-of-the-money puts to lock in maximum downside loss), essentially collecting premiums at the $60000 mark and establishing manageable risk bottom positions.
Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetual funding rates remained close to neutral throughout (BTC 0.000%, ETH -0.006%), indicating that the market is orderly de-leveraging without any chain explosions, with clear risk level distinctions.
Bullish and Bearish Logic and Neutral Comprehensive Judgment
Bullish Logic
Panic sentiment has exhibited structural boundaries: the large put open interest barrier at $60000 (approximately 19000 contracts, the highest across the board) has attracted real institutional capital to enter; institutions are selling puts and buying calls at this price level, equivalent to bottom-fishing through options — collecting premiums while committing to $60000 delivery, simultaneously buying calls to capture potential rebounds.
The fear and greed index has dropped to a cycle low, historically this value often precedes a rebound environment (not a direct cause of price increases, but foundational market conditions are in place); long-term holders have not panicked into mass sell-offs, as the selling pressure in this round stemmed from whales reducing positions short-term and ETF outflows, not long-term holders cutting losses.
ETF outflows have paused for 13 consecutive days; a key positive is MicroStrategy's announcement of holding $1 billion in cash for preferred stock dividends, completely severing the connection between dividend distributions and Bitcoin sales, with the 32-coin sell-off being a one-time confidence wobble, not a normalized selling pressure.
The far-term skew recovery indicates that the derivatives market is pricing in stability over the next 3-6 months; if the spot holds $60000, and the June 10 US CPI data does not exhibit unexpected upward pressure, all technical stabilization conditions will be met.
Bearish Downward Risks
The secondary probing of the low point has not been confirmed as complete; at the current price of $63083, there remains a 4.9% downward space to the $60000 put barrier, once breached, gamma effects and put barrier magnet effects will accelerate the decline; the next large put support levels are $55000 (10800 contracts) and $50000 (12500 contracts).
The selling pressure on Ethereum exceeds that of Bitcoin: Ethereum's far-term futures shifted from a premium of 6.52% last week to deep discount of 9.49%, with marginally negative perpetual rates; the ETH/BTC near-term volatility ratio of 1.356 reached a new cycle high, highlighting Ethereum's greater downside elasticity and weaker performance.
MicroStrategy's bi-weekly dividend distribution mechanism has officially taken effect, implying that there will still be small routine Bitcoin selling pressures in the future.
The June 10 CPI and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting will release the dot plot after Waller’s appointment, posing two major macro catalysts that could reverse the market; until the $60000 support is not confirmed as stable, premature large-scale bottom fishing will face deeper corrections.
Neutral Comprehensive Assessment
The panic market has reached identifiable structural nodes, with $60000 being the only core key price point in the current market: not merely a psychological integer level, but a core node gathering the maximum open interest in options, institutional bottom-fishing funds, and the binary division of the market between bulls and bears. Holding above this point provides the foundation for stabilization; once breached, the next gamma pressure cluster lies at $55000.
The shift of institutions from defense to bottom-fishing is the most pivotal signal within the entire data set, but the proportion of large order trades has dropped from 46.3% to 16.3%, suggesting while direction judgments are correct, overall market entry confidence is not fully realized. A phased layout approach is advised, as there are only two potential market directions: a stabilization at $60000, or a drop below $60000, which will determine all subsequent price dynamics.
BIT Platform Practical Views
Priority to Allocate Collar Strategies, the Main Hedging Tool This Week
The core purpose is not to seek high returns, but to manage asset risk control. The skew recovery has depressed the long-term downside protection cost, while short-term IV remains high, making selling calls more cost-effective, creating an optimal entry window for collars within a few weeks. The market still holds the possibility of testing or breaking below $60000; ahead of the re-pricing resulting from the CPI (on June 10) and FOMC (on June 16-17) catalysts, establishing a collar combination without additional margin is advisable to lock in the maximum downside loss in advance. No need to wait for clearer market signals, the core value of collar strategies lies in the ability to control risk steadily without the need for precise bullish or bearish judgments.
Phased Bottom-Fishing Layout, Gradually Building Positions Near $60000
With the current price at $63000 coupled with high volatility, selling puts for premium income is at a cycle high, appropriate for three types of structured products: Fixed Coupon Notes (FCN), low-priced dual-currency products (DCP), and discounted accumulators; the bullish seagull is also suitable: funding with USDT, setting the conversion price at $60000 or lower, allowing for lower coin purchases when testing the put barrier, achieving high annualized returns when the market recovers.
Institutions have been selling puts to bottom-fish around the $60000 mark, while the layered returns of the bullish seagull perfectly align with smart funding strategies: holding tickets for interest while waiting, with the products self-contained lower phased entry prices. Strictly control the size of individual positions to keep further downside buffer space, and after the price stabilizes firmly above $60000, further expand and increase the scale of positions.
Volatility Sellers Can Gradually Test the Waters, but Heavy Entrances Are Not Suitable
The IV peak signal is real and effective: the DVOL has retreated during trading, and the near-term skew extreme values historically tend to revert to the mean quickly while institutions have sold puts on mass; especially, the yield from selling Ethereum's volatility has peaked at this cycle.
However, signs of a peak do not equate to confirming a top, as actual volatility still possesses the potential for another explosive rise. Naked shorting volatility and openly exposing gamma risks when betting on the $60000 support, CPI, and interest meeting actions are pure speculative gambles. Referencing institutional prudent strategies: selling puts via spread structures (selling near-month puts, buying deep out-of-the-money puts to cap maximum losses), and testing small positions; only after the spot holds firmly above $60000 and DVOL continues to decline can positions to sell volatility be expanded.
Plan to Reduce Positions for Profit-Taking Holders: Current Levels Are Not Suitable for Large-Scale Reductions
After the deep correction, the reasonable execution price for high-price reduction structures (decreasing accumulations - DQ, short FCN, high-price selling DCP) has significantly shifted lower; at the $63000 level, panic selling only amplifies actual accounting losses. If a rebound restores the previous support turning into resistance around $72000, or near the $80000 bullish barrier, then gradually deploy reduction structures. The optimal strategy at this stage is: hold base positions + supporting hedging protection.
Summary
Six major bearish factors resonate simultaneously, impacting the market, and after digesting risks, a substantial options support barrier forms at $60000.
Prioritization of actions: first establish collar risk controls, gradually accumulate bottom positions near $60000, and after confirming bottom stabilization, then execute large-scale volatility arbitrage sales.
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