The current trend can be summarized as: a sharp drop followed by a rebound from oversold levels, but the strength of the rebound is in doubt, and the bearish trend remains unchanged.

Key Signal Interpretation

1. Trend Structure: Bearish Dominance, Moving Average Suppression

   • The price is currently operating below all EMA moving averages. The EMA(5), EMA(10), EMA(20), and EMA(40) show a clear bearish arrangement, and the moving averages are widely diverging downwards. This indicates that the medium-term trend is still firmly controlled by bears, and any rebound will face multiple layers of resistance.

   • The short-term moving average (yellow line EMA5) has crossed below the long-term moving averages, forming a clear overhead resistance.

2. MACD Indicator: Form of Bottom Divergence

   • Although the price has created a new low at 1965.28, the MACD fast and slow lines (DIF and DEA) have not made a new low, and the green bars (bearish momentum) are clearly shortening, even nearing a turnaround to red.

   • This is a potential "bottom divergence" signal, indicating that the downward momentum is weakening, and a rebound or horizontal consolidation may occur in the short term.

3. Key Support Level: 1965 Line

   • The dashed line in the chart at 1965.28 marks the previous starting point and an important support platform. The price has just retraced to this level and has left a lower shadow, indicating that there is buying pressure attempting to catch support here.

Trading Strategy Suggestions

• Short-term Approach (Bet on Rebound)

  • Observation Point: Closely monitor the support strength in the 1965-1970 range. If the price can stabilize at this level (not making a new low), and if MACD shows a golden cross, it may be an opportunity to try a light long position, aiming for a rebound towards the moving averages.

  • Target Level: The first target for the rebound is set at 2000 (moving average resistance level).

• Medium-term Approach (Short with the Trend)

  • Key Signal: If the price effectively drops below 1965 (closing below 1960), it indicates that the support has failed, opening up further downside potential.

  • Action: If it breaks below 1965 and confirms a pullback without exceeding it, this would be an excellent shorting point, targeting the 1900 integer level below.

Summary in One Sentence: The short-term downward momentum is weakening, currently testing the 1965 key support. If the support holds, a short-term long may be considered, while a break would indicate that the trendcontinues to look bearish.

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