1. Market Situation: Weak Consolidation, Bears in Control

Today is May 20, 2026, Wednesday. Bitcoin has been fluctuating narrowly between $76,000 and $77,000, continuing to face pressure for the fifth consecutive day, down more than 7% from last week's high of $82,000. Ethereum is around $2,100-$2,130, rebounding to $2,146, only to face resistance and fall back, showing clear signs of weakness.

Key Technical Levels:

BTC: Resistance above at $77,000-$77,300 (4-hour Bollinger middle band), support below at $75,800-$76,000, if lost, look for $75,000

ETH: Resistance above at $2,145-$2,165 (MA30 pressure level), support below at $2,075-$2,080, if broken, look for $2,050

The bearish structure has not changed; shorting on rebounds is more prudent than bottom-fishing.

2. Macroeconomic Factors: Tightening Rate Expectations, Pressured Liquidity

U.S. Treasury yields soar: The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 5.18%, a new high since 2007. Elevated risk-free rates directly suppress the valuation of risk assets.

Interest rate cut expectations zeroed out, rate hike expectations rising: CME FedWatch shows the market has priced in over 30% chance of a rate hike, while expectations for rate cuts in 2026-2027 have basically disappeared. Kevin Warsh officially takes over as the Federal Reserve Chair today, raising concerns about his hawkish stance in the market.

Geopolitical risks remain unresolved: Tensions between the U.S. and Iran are still within a 2-3 day negotiation window, leading to uncertainty in the situation's direction.

3. Capital Situation: Significant Outflows from ETFs, But Divergence Internally

Overall significant outflows: During the week of May 11-15, net outflows from digital asset investment products amounted to $1.07 billion, ending a six-week streak of inflows. Among this, BTC had a net outflow of $982 million, and ETH had a net outflow of $249 million.

Divergence signals appeared: During the same period, XRP saw a net inflow of $67.6 million, while Solana had a net inflow of $55.1 million. Capital is migrating from BTC/ETH to assets with regulatory certainty (XRP) or staking returns (SOL).

Institutions are still hoarding coins: Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) bought 24,869 BTC at an average price of $75,700 last week, costing about $2.01 billion, bringing total holdings to 843,738 coins.

4. Policy Factors: Long-term Positive Signals Emerging, Limited Short-term Impact

Trump signs cryptocurrency executive order: On May 19, he signed two executive orders, requiring the Federal Reserve to review obstacles to cryptocurrency companies accessing payment systems within 90 days and promoting financial innovation. Institutions like Kraken in the Wyoming SPDI may benefit.

SEC plans to promote tokenized stock exemptions: They plan to allow cryptocurrency platforms to trade tokenized securities within limits, accelerating the process of traditional finance moving on-chain.

CLARITY Act is still progressing: The Senate Banking Committee is reviewing it, with about a 65% probability of passing, but limited short-term price impact.

Three major exchanges unite for lobbying: Coinbase, Kraken, and Gemini urge the Senate to remove restrictions on token listings, reflecting a deepening compliance game.

5. Strategy Recommendations and Trading References for May 20

Overall Judgment: Macroeconomic pressures (high interest rates + strong dollar + geopolitical risks) dominate short-term trends, with a bearish technical outlook. Long-term positive policies (executive orders, RWA tokenization) need time to digest.

In summary, in the short term, Bitcoin and ETH are both dominated by bears, so in these days, we have provided ideas for short positions on rebounds in the articles and current price orders, and I mentioned several times the position layout for shorts at $82,000 last week. Yesterday, there was also a suggestion for a short position above $77,000. Although the market fluctuations weren't that large, making a small 1,000-point profit should not be a problem.

Today, I still choose to lay out short positions around $77,000-$77,300, targeting $75,000. When it approaches around $76,000, friends who are cautious can choose to take profit, and if it reaches around $77,800, it can be supplemented once, with a stop loss at $78,600.

For ETH, consider laying out short positions at $2,130-$2,150, with a stop loss at $2,200, targeting $2,070-$2,050.

There are opportunities every day, and our operations have never ceased. Friends who want to exchange operational ideas can message me for timely entry and exit reminders.

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