The war is not over yet, but the market seems to have begun pricing in anticipation.

Almost all assets are rising

Since March 27, the S&P 500 index has rebounded nearly 10%, on track to close up for the third consecutive week. The Nasdaq 100 has seen an even larger increase, up about 12%, with ten consecutive trading days closing in the green, marking the longest streak of gains since 2021.

U.S. stocks closed with the Dow up 0.66%, the S&P up 1.18%, and the Nasdaq up 1.96%. Cryptocurrency-related stocks surged across the board: Robinhood rose more than 10% in a single day, Circle gained nearly 7%, Coinbase was up 5.65%, and Riot climbed 4.32%. The Japanese and South Korean markets are also following suit. The Nikkei 225 opened up 0.71%, breaking above 58,000 points for the first time since March. The South Korean KOSPI opened up 2.98%, reporting 6,145.62 points.

In the world of Bitcoin, it hit a high of $76,120 on Tuesday, a new high since February 6, successfully recovering the key support area at $75,000. Analyst CryptoBlockto pointed out that Bitcoin has broken above the upper line of the ascending triangle at $73,000, and the daily RSI has risen to 63, with the next target aiming for $80,000, a measured target of $89,050, about 18% higher than the current price.

Bitcoin's on-chain data is also worth noting. Since 2026, the daily average number of Bitcoin transactions has increased by 62%, reaching 765,130 on April 5, a new 17-month high. Analyst CW8900 stated directly: "The current daily transaction volume for Bitcoin is already higher than levels when BTC was at $120,000, indicating the network is exhibiting bullish behavior."

Of course, not all is optimistic. The funding rates in the crypto market show that BTC and ETH on mainstream platforms like Binance have recorded negative values, with short positions continuously paying fees to maintain their positions. On the sentiment front, bearish signals have not yet dissipated.

However, the market seems to be rising due to the "expectation of the war ending."

Rich Privorotky, head of Goldman Sachs' Delta One trading desk, succinctly pointed out: "The market seems to have declared victory in the war with Iran, even though the conflict itself has not truly concluded."

Tom Lee's interpretation is more straightforward. In an interview with CNBC, he mentioned that defense spending is currently about $30 billion per month, and may rise to $60 billion, which would have a significant stimulating effect on the economy. A $20 increase in oil prices would only add about $12 billion in burden to households monthly. "Overall, the war is actually helping corporate profits at the moment."

He referenced World War II: U.S. stocks hit bottom in May 1942, just five months after the U.S. entered the war, at a time when not a single soldier had stepped onto European or Pacific battlefields. "The market is very good at pricing in outcomes ahead of time; the current stock market rise means the market is pricing in a favorable outcome."

The second round of negotiations is approaching

Facilitating all of this may be the easing of geopolitical tensions.

On April 14, Trump reiterated in an interview with Fox News: "The war with Iran is nearing its end." He added, "I believe Iran is very eager to reach an agreement right now." He also revealed to the New York Post that new negotiations between the U.S. and Iran "may take place in Pakistan within the next two days."

This is a continuation based on the "long but unproductive" talks that took place in Islamabad last Saturday. The U.S. and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire on April 8, with a deadline of April 22. According to Russian sources citing Arab diplomatic insiders, discussions about extending the ceasefire are currently underway.

Who will represent the U.S.? Trump did not specify but confirmed he would not attend. According to sources familiar with CNN, if a new round of face-to-face talks can be facilitated before the ceasefire expires, Vice President Pence is expected to lead the second round of negotiations. Pence stated that he will continue to strive for the "big deal" Trump hopes to reach with Iran.

Following the news, WTI crude oil fell as much as 4% in Asian trading on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the passage of merchant ships through the Strait of Hormuz is improving.

According to the WSJ, more than 20 cargo ships, container ships, and tankers have crossed the strait in the past 24 hours, although this is still only a small fraction of pre-war levels.

Doug Peta, chief U.S. investment strategist at BCA Research, said: "As the earnings season kicks off, company fundamentals are driving stock price movements more strongly compared to headlines regarding the situation in Iran."

The noise of war still lingers. But the market has chosen to look ahead.

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