The main reason for the rebound in the U.S. stock market and $BTC today is the market's expectation that the U.S. and Iran can reach a 45-day ceasefire agreement, and that Iran will open the Strait of Hormuz, which has led to the price of U.S. oil (Brent) dropping below $110.

However, Iran is still maintaining a strong stance, although there are indeed signs of smooth passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, the Qatari liquefied natural gas carriers "Rashida" and "Dayan" are approaching the Strait of Hormuz. If these two ships pass through successfully, it will be the first time Qatari vessels have transported liquefied natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict erupted.

At that time, Trump is likely to unilaterally declare victory, announcing that Iran has abandoned attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and then facilitate a ceasefire between the two sides. The possibility of this scenario is quite high.

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