The weekend was as expected, with no storms; even though the war situation has become more ambiguous, $BTC still only maintains a slight fluctuation. This weekend has shown many data points to friends; although data cannot determine price increases or decreases, it shows that currently there is a buying trend. Whether among small-scale investors or high-net-worth individuals, the on-chain Bitcoin supply is increasing, indicating that non-short-term investors are indeed buying BTC.
The reason we refer to non-short-term investors is that if one only engages in short-term investments, there is no need to withdraw Bitcoin from exchanges to the chain. Therefore, as long as there is a withdrawal or transfer, it generally corresponds to wanting to hold longer or to cash out quickly. Currently, more is being transferred out of exchanges, so overall, more investors may feel that even if it is not the bottom, it is not far from it.
In the current war situation, regional countries including Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan are trying to facilitate negotiations between Iran and the United States to stop the war or reach a temporary ceasefire agreement. However, these efforts have stalled, as Iran has rejected various proposals, including a ceasefire in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and refused to meet with U.S. officials. Therefore, the last-minute effort from Trump on Tuesday may be difficult to resolve peacefully, unless it's Trump TACO.
Looking at Bitcoin's data, this should be the lowest daily on-chain turnover data I have seen in recent years, with only four digits and not reaching five digits. This indicates that the current price has very low trading attractiveness for investors. Additionally, due to the U.S. holiday, most investors are enjoying their time off, which in a sense also reflects indifference towards the current price.
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