Many friends believe that we are currently in a bear market for cryptocurrencies, but from the indicators of bear markets, $BTC is still at the junction of bear and bull markets; comparatively speaking, it is indeed closer to a bear market (orange).

On the other hand, $ETH is indeed one level more bearish than Bitcoin and has now entered the bear market category, but there is still a little room before it reaches deep bear (red).

In Bitcoin's historical cycles, only the sharp decline in March 2020 did not enter a deep bear trend before turning into a bull market; other cycles always drop into a deep bear before turning bull, but we have not fully entered a bear market yet.

This might also be the reason many friends are waiting for another drop, but whether there will really be such a drop is uncertain, especially since starting in 2024, ETFs and DAT (strategic reserves) have bought a large amount of chips, and most of them are still held.

Compared to traditional risk markets, Bitcoin is still too young.

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