Original Author: Long Yue

Source: Wall Street Journal

On the morning of April 2, Beijing time, U.S. President Trump delivered a nationwide televised speech regarding the Iran conflict. The market originally bet he would release signals to cool tensions, but instead, new threats emerged.

In his speech, Trump claimed a "quick, decisive, overwhelming victory" in the Iran conflict, while explicitly stating, "In the next two to three weeks, we will launch extremely severe strikes against them," and issued an ultimatum: "If there is no agreement, we will strike fiercely at every power plant in Iran." He did not provide an answer on when the Strait of Hormuz would reopen.

The first reaction from oil prices reflected the market: Brent crude oil briefly broke through $105/barrel during trading, with a daily increase of 4%. Asia-Pacific stock markets were under pressure, with the Nikkei 225 Index's decline expanding to 1.1%, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index dropping 2.1%, and S&P 500 futures decreasing by 0.6%.

Nick Twidale, Chief Market Analyst at AT Global Markets, stated, "Investors clearly are not buying it; there may be more downside for global markets today." "Although he says the war is about to end, that key message — there will still be strikes on Iran in the coming weeks — is extremely negative for the market."

Institutional Interpretation: Pressure Strategy, Not De-escalation

Multiple institutions quickly made judgments after the speech, with core conclusions highly consistent: this is not the type of signal the market wanted. After Trump's address, the market seemed to focus more on the notion that the Iran war is not yet over.

Robert Subbaraman, Global Market Research Head at Nomura Securities, stated, "Trump's speech did not provide the clear signal for de-escalation that the market was hoping for." He pointed out that in the foreign exchange market, Asian currencies against the U.S. dollar could weaken; if the fluctuations are too rapid, central banks may intensify interventions; simultaneously, this could also create upward pressure on bond yields. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose by 0.2% after the speech.

Rodrigo Catril, a strategist at the National Australia Bank (NAB) in Sydney, believed, "The market seems to be focused on the notion that the war is not yet over." He stated, "The U.S. is seeking to escalate the situation in hopes of forcing Iran to reach an agreement, but this strategy is not without risks—close attention needs to be paid to oil prices."

Dilin Wu, a research strategist at Pepperstone Group, bluntly stated that Trump's speech "is indeed disappointing." She pointed out that Trump's earlier remarks about withdrawing from the Middle East "now seem more aimed at reassuring the market while keeping pressure options available." "He clearly still prefers a strategy of applying pressure first before easing tensions, rather than a straightforward de-escalation."

OCBC Bank also expressed a similar view, stating that Trump's speech lowered hopes for a quick end to the war, prompting the market to prepare for further escalation in the short term, rising oil prices, and a strengthening dollar.

“Long-term high oil prices shift inflation concerns to growth concerns, which may not only start to drag down currencies of risk-sensitive energy-importing countries like the New Zealand dollar, pound, and Swedish krona, but could also affect currencies of risk-sensitive energy-exporting countries like the Australian dollar and Norwegian krone,” said the bank's currency strategist Moh Siong Sim.

“If U.S. Treasury yields fall due to heightened growth concerns, the yen may shift from underperforming to outperforming currency,” he added.

Lack of Ceasefire Details, Nothing New

Concerns in the market are intensifying due to the speech's lack of substantive details addressing the core supply chain crisis.

Bloomberg senior editor Derek Wallbank commented: “If you've been listening to the president's remarks over the past week, there isn't much new tonight.”

He pointed out that Trump made no mention of the fact that Iran currently effectively controls traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. This situation, which gives Iran "de facto veto power," is unacceptable to many Gulf countries. Furthermore, U.S. officials revealed that a third American aircraft carrier strike group had left Virginia for the Middle East on Tuesday, indicating that military buildup is still continuing.

Columnist Clara Ferreira Marques stated that Trump did not provide new details or a lasting solution regarding the Strait of Hormuz, but urged other countries to find "late-arriving courage" to address the issue, a stance that "will leave the crude oil market feeling uneasy.”

From a longer-term investment perspective, the market is incorporating "energy interruptions" into long-term pricing. Analyst Abhishek Vishnoi noted that Trump's comments urging other countries to take care of the Strait of Hormuz increased the probability of a persistent risk premium in the crude oil market.

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