As of the data released in February 2026 at East 8 time, the monthly retail sales in the United States recorded 0.6%, higher than the market expectation of 0.5%, setting a new high since July 2025. At the same time, the previous value was revised from -0.2% to -0.1%. Combined with the ADP employment figure increasing by 62,000 in March, significantly above the expected 40,000, this forms a set of signals indicating that the U.S. economy still possesses resilience. However, behind the surface “consumption recovery”, the differentiation of employment growth across industries and business sizes has not disappeared, with consumption recovery occurring alongside structural imbalances in employment, making the Federal Reserve face a more complex trade-off and greater uncertainty in choosing future interest rate paths.

0.6% Surprise and Previous Value Revision: A Signal of Marginal Improvement in Consumption

The February retail sales monthly rate of 0.6% compared to the expected 0.5% shows a nominal exceedance of merely 0.1 percentage points, but combined with the revision of the previous value from -0.2% to -0.1%, indicates that prior data underestimated actual consumption performance. The current reading, along with the revision, forms a clearer trajectory of marginal improvement. Data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce and cited by several crypto media indicate that consumer spending is regaining momentum after relatively weak performance in previous months.

What is more noteworthy is that this 0.6% reading is the highest level since July 2025. In other words, over the past nearly six months, U.S. retail sales have generally been in a “mild or even weak” state, and the recent increase seems more like a phase rebound rather than a continuation of acceleration at high levels. The market needs to discern whether this represents a brief repair during a cyclical downturn or a potential new equilibrium point for consumption that hedges stress under high-rate environments.

It should be emphasized that the data discussed in this round is based on nominal retail total, sourced from the U.S. Department of Commerce and secondary reports from techflow, Rhythm, Planet Daily, and others. Currently, there are significant gaps in publicly available information regarding core retail, excluding automobiles, and control group retail, and some figures remain in a "to be verified" state. In the absence of complete structural data, analysis should focus on the aggregate and trends themselves, avoiding extrapolating conclusions to yet-to-be-disclosed core sub-items.

ADP Employment Recovery: Support from Small Enterprises and Industry Bias

Alongside retail sales, the March ADP employment figure increased by 62,000, higher than the expected 40,000, showing that the U.S. labor market retains some elasticity even under a high-interest-rate cycle. Especially as the ADP data covers small and medium enterprises more extensively, the current figure is particularly crucial against the backdrop of market worries over “tightened credit environments dragging down small businesses”: at least from the perspective of new positions, small enterprises are still providing some support.

Voices from channels such as techflow mentioned that “the ADP data has performed decently for the second consecutive time”, reinforcing the judgment that the job market has not experienced a systemic collapse, but rather maintained stability amid moderate deceleration. In this scenario, the market's interpretation of the Federal Reserve as "more inclined to maintain interest rates unchanged, and even not ruling out discussions about interest rate hikes" naturally heats up, further compressing the downside space for the interest rate path.

ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson pointed out that job growth continues to lean towards specific industries such as healthcare, indicating that new positions are not evenly distributed across industries. This bias suggests that, on one hand, the overall employment data still looks “good”, alleviating concerns about a macro-level recession to some extent; on the other hand, certain industries and mid-to-low skill positions reliant on discretionary spending have not equally benefited from this round of employment expansion, and the issue of structural imbalance continues to lurk beneath the surface of otherwise pleasing data.

Consumption Recovery Combined with Employment Differentiation: Worsening Economic “Cold and Hot Imbalance”

When placing stronger-than-expected retail sales alongside ADP employment data characterized by industry bias, a more detailed picture emerges: the consumption recovery likely comes from specific income groups and specific service sectors, rather than a synchronized prosperity across all households and industries. High-income or relatively stable employment groups, facing the dual pressures of high interest rates and inflation, show a significantly faster recovery in consumption, driving nominal retail totals upwards.

In a scenario where employment growth is primarily concentrated in defensive sectors such as healthcare, the pressures on mid-low income groups and industries reliant on discretionary consumption have not substantially eased. These groups are often more sensitive to credit costs and price fluctuations; when interest rates remain high and the cost of living remains elevated, their consumption elasticity is limited, making it difficult to constitute a long-term stable driving force. Behind the surface “retail recovery”, the potential division is quietly accumulating.

In summary, the current macro data in the United States can be characterized as: “overall decent, but internally uneven”. In total, retail and employment can still support a “soft landing” narrative; structurally, disparities between industries and income levels continue to exist. This pattern lays the groundwork for future Federal Reserve policy choices—facing surface stability and underlying inequity, the Federal Reserve’s trade-off between “anti-inflation” and “stabilizing growth” will become increasingly challenging.

Interest Rate Expectations Postponed Again: Rate Cut Concept Forced to Take a Backseat

Following the better-than-expected retail and ADP data, the mainstream market interpretation of the Federal Reserve has clearly shifted: rather than rushing to cut rates, there is a greater inclination to maintain the existing high rates or even reconsider the possibility of rate hikes. Stronger-than-expected consumption and decent employment suggest that demand-side resilience is still present, providing a sustaining soil for continued inflation, making it difficult for decision-makers to feel confident in turning toward easing prematurely.

The logic chain is relatively clear: as long as the two core data sets of consumption and employment continue to outperform expectations, the Federal Reserve has more “patience” in its anti-inflation stance, capable of enduring higher rates for a longer period, thus avoiding the lessons learned from shifting too early, which could lead to recurrent inflation. Conversely, only when demand significantly slows and employment obviously retracts would rate cuts shift from being an “option” to a “necessity”. The current data combination evidently aligns more closely with the former scenario.

For crypto and traditional risk assets, this situation means: the continuation of the high-interest-rate environment and a marginal tightening of liquidity are forced to last longer. Historical experience shows that when interest rates remain high and downward expectations are repeatedly postponed, global asset valuations often come under pressure—rising discount rates in valuation models and safer risk-free returns become more appealing, requiring risk assets to have higher growth expectations to hedge against valuation compression. For the crypto market, a slowdown in capital influx and rising risk-free rates usually suppress risk appetite and speculative leverage, leading to potentially more volatile markets and more selective directional opportunities.

Pre-war Data and Oil Price Shadow: Observational Framework for Subsequent Months

It is necessary to clarify that the current retail and ADP employment data are both statistics prior to the Iran War, more reflecting the "pre-war" economic landscape of the United States, rather than providing immediate feedback on potential oil price shocks that may arise post-conflict. Under the current information constraints, it is impossible and unwise to extrapolate specific oil price trajectories and transmission magnitudes, and can only be viewed as significant exogenous variables that may change inflation and growth trajectories in the future.

For investors, what is more critical is to compare consumption and employment data against the backdrop of oil price fluctuations in the coming months: if retail sales and employment maintain resilience under rising energy price pressures, then the current economic recovery becomes more solid; if subsequent data show a noticeable weakening, it indicates that the “bright data” may resemble a brief calm before a high-pressure storm, rather than a normal state.

From the perspective of the crypto market, the impact of this data on the industry primarily centers on three points:

● Interest rate path expectations: strong data extended the window for sustained high rates and compressed the imagination of aggressive rate cuts in the near term, necessitating a reassessment of the assumption of “easing will come very quickly” in asset pricing.

● U.S. dollar liquidity tightening: high rates combined with a relatively robust economy make the liquidity environment tighter, enhancing the attractiveness of dollar assets, with global risk-free returns rising, which exerts a crowding-out effect on incremental capital for crypto assets.

● Risk preference rotation rhythm: under the combination of high rates and reasonably good economic conditions, risk preference may lean more toward assets with cash flow, clear performance narratives, or tangible outcomes, while purely valuations-based high beta crypto assets will face more intense rotations and selections.

In such a macro environment, strategies that heavily rely on single macro data for directional decisions carry significantly higher risks. A more prudent approach would be to dynamically adjust judgments regarding interest rate paths and U.S. dollar liquidity while tracking consumption, employment, and inflation data over the coming months, in combination with one’s own risk tolerance, undertake a phased layout rather than a one-time bet.

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