The BTC Game Theory framework tracks whether coordination between market participants is intact or breaking down.

In May 2022 the model identified coordination fracturing and moved to cash at $33,988. BTC fell another ~54% over the months that followed.

In Oct 2025 it flagged the same structural shift and exited at $115,321. BTC has declined 45.5% since. In both cases the regime classifier detected the behavioral breakdown before price confirmed it.

The drawdowns started when speculative capital overwhelmed patient capital and coordination collapsed. The question for allocators is whether exposure is structurally justified right now.

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