Original title:How To Find 100X Insider Polymarket Wallets To Cop，Author: Aleiah（@AleiahLock）

Compiled by｜Odaily Planet Daily（@OdailyChina）；Translator｜Asher（@Asher_0210）

A certain address on Polymarket rolled $35,000 into $442,000, achieving a return of 12.6 times. Notably, the position at this address was established hours before a significant market upheaval, with trades essentially completed before the news spread to mainstream channels. This situation is not an isolated occurrence; before the news of the "Venezuela raid" political event became public, three addresses completed their layouts in advance, collectively profiting $630,000 from the same event.

If such trades occurred in traditional financial markets, people would easily think of information asymmetry. However, in prediction markets, all fund flows and position changes are recorded on the public blockchain, with no hidden accounts or private transactions.

Being public does not mean there are no gaps. The key is not whether the trades can be seen, but whether one can read signals with real informational value from the vast amount of data.

Every transaction on Polymarket is public data

Many participants in prediction markets still regard Polymarket as a traditional betting platform: focusing on odds, choosing directions, and betting on outcomes. However, the underlying structure of Polymarket is fundamentally different from DraftKings or ordinary sports betting. All transactions happen on-chain, and the flow of funds, position sizes, and entry/exit timings are all publicly traceable. Those addresses with the most accurate judgments and the most acute timing have their operating paths visible in real-time on-chain records.

The Polymarket API is also open. Trading records, market data, historical transactions can be accessed directly by anyone, with no permission barriers.

Thus, the gap is not in who can see the data, but in who can glean meaning from it. On-chain information is public, but what is truly valuable are the wallets worth ongoing tracking, and the ability to identify behavioral changes before prices fully reflect them.

What characteristics do genuine "insider addresses" typically have?

It is important to emphasize that not all profitable wallets imply insider information. Some traders have solid research capabilities, while others rely on quantitative models and algorithmic advantages. However, when profit overlaps with specific behavioral patterns repeatedly, one can observe structural features that differ from mere "luck."

First type: New addresses with unusually large bets

A wallet created just a few days ago, with very few transactions, suddenly invests a large amount of money in a low liquidity niche market – such behavior is uncommon. Especially in the absence of publicly catalytic factors, large concentrated positions often carry stronger informational significance.

Second type: Highly vertical trading domains

Some addresses do not operate across markets but instead focus long-term on a specific niche and maintain stable and significant win rates in that field. They do not spread across crypto prices, elections, sports, etc., but rather concentrate fire on a single topic, with more decisive position decisions.

Third type: Unusual changes in position sizes

When an address that has been betting in moderate sizes suddenly increases its position significantly in a certain market, such behavior often indicates a change in judgment intensity. The position itself is an attitude, and a sudden change in size usually reflects an upgrade of information or belief.

Fourth type: Overly precise timing choices

Occasional early layouts can be attributed to coincidence, but if an address repeatedly completes its positions hours before major news is announced, and the direction is highly consistent, such timing leads cannot easily be explained as luck. Once is random, multiple repetitions are more likely to reflect an informational advantage.

How to systematically filter potential "information advantage addresses"

Step 1: Analyze Polymarket leaderboard performance

Start by checking the leaderboard at Polymarket Analytics (link: https://polymarketanalytics.com/traders), sorting by 30-day profit and loss, using recent stable profit performance as the first filter. Focus on wallets that have had positive returns for 30 consecutive days, with a win rate above 55%, and total profits significantly higher than total losses. At the same time, ensure their transactions are concentrated in markets with real liquidity, not low-volume prediction events with no participants.

The goal at this stage is not to directly judge whether they possess an information advantage, but to establish a watchlist of wallets with sustainable profitability. A stable profit record is the foundation for subsequent behavioral analysis.

Step 2: Analyze the position structure in specific events

After completing the initial filter, further drill down into specific trading events. Enter highly active prediction markets and check the Top Holders list for the event. Polymarket will publicly display the addresses with the largest current positions, and these large positions often represent stronger judgment intensity.

The key is not whether a specific address hits a large position once, but whether its behavior shows continuity. If a wallet repeatedly appears in the top holder lists for multiple important events, and these positions are established before the market is fully priced, then this repetition itself constitutes a signal.

Hitting a large position once may only be coincidence, but repeatedly building large positions in the early stages, with consistent direction and validated outcomes, often indicates that its judgment system has a stable advantage.

Step 3: Analyze trading behavior and position timing

After filtering candidate addresses, further backtrack their on-chain trading history, focusing on position establishment timing, structure, and holding rhythm.

First, observe the timing of position establishment. If purchases occur hours before official news is announced and this happens repeatedly, the time advantage itself becomes a significant variable; whereas entering after media reports is more likely just information following.

Second, analyze how positions are built. Mature traders typically build positions in batches, gradually increasing sizes, while wallets with strong informational judgments often complete concentrated layouts quickly within a short time frame because their window is limited.

Furthermore, pay attention to holding periods. Some high-quality addresses choose to exit partway through the unfolding market rather than waiting for extreme fluctuations, indicating that their goal is to lock in the main trend rather than chase marginal profits.

Finally, observe their trading range. Addresses that are highly vertical and maintain a long-term focus on a single niche are more likely to form stable informational advantages; those frequently operating across various segments are more likely to rely on market sentiment rather than specific domain judgments.

Advanced address tracking strategies

After mastering basic filtering methods, what truly separates the gap is a further breakdown of the details of funding behaviors.

First, attention should be paid to exit behaviors, not just entry timings. Addresses with informational advantages often not only lay out early but also actively reduce positions ahead of potential bad news. When a long-stable large address suddenly significantly reduces its holdings in the absence of obvious catalytic factors, its information content is often higher than the initial buying behavior. Especially when the reduction reaches a significant proportion, this change itself becomes a signal.

Second, wallet clustering analysis can be conducted through on-chain data. The connections between addresses are not entirely untraceable. Similar funding sources, similar Gas usage patterns, and transactions occurring in very short time frames may reveal relationships between addresses. Many seemingly "new" accounts can often be traced back to a long-active old address through two or three fund transfers. Following the funding flow paths helps identify new potential high-quality accounts before the market notices.

Additionally, pay attention to unusual volume changes in obscure markets. If a market with a relatively small daily transaction volume suddenly sees a large influx of funds without public news, such structural volume often indicates that some participants in the market have acted in advance. Analyzing the specific addresses that drive volume changes can help construct a new watchlist.

Finally, on-chain behaviors can be cross-verified with external public information. The so-called "Pizza Index" once inferred potential military actions through abnormal changes in the order volume of pizza shops around the Pentagon. Similarly, flight tracking data, key individuals' social media activities, public schedule adjustments, etc., can provide corroboration or reverse validation for on-chain position behaviors. The linkage between on-chain fund flows and real-world signals often enhances the reliability of judgments.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。