I've only approved of selling Bitcoin on two occasions:

1. At $97k in Nov.'25 (2-day 200 breakdown)

2. At $97k in Jan.'26 (2-day 200 undercut retest)

That's it.

So when I post bearish data/charts/analysis, I'm not encouraging anyone (or myself) to sell.

I'm trying to make you recognize that you shouldn't rush your DCA schedule.

I'm trying to make you recognize that endurance is key.

I'm trying to make you recognize that lower prices are likely coming and that you should be prepared to take advantage of capitulation, when it comes.

I'm trying to improve your odds of survival.

This is not a "make money" environment.

This is a "brace for hard times" environment.

My baseline expectation is that I'm going to get poorer in this market environment, because I still own a lot of Bitcoin (even though I sold a big chunk of my stack in November at $97k) and I expect to buy more Bitcoin.

If my expectation is wrong and we return to a "make money" environment faster than I expect, who cares? I still own Bitcoin, I've been able to reallocate what I've sold, and my "buy back all in" price is below where I sold.

So even if my bearishness gets invalidated, which it might, then my ability to adapt and reallocate based on data will put me back into a full exposure position.

That level is the 2-day 200 moving average cloud.

I've been talking about it since February 2025.

Literally one year.

I told you that I'd get bearish if/when price broke below it.

I told you that I'd sell if/when price broke below it.

I told you we'd retest the 200W MA if/when price broke below it.

I haven't missed on any of those.

So what now?

I've begun to reallocate in this market.

I'm buying in a downtrend.

But I'm trying to buy at the right times.

Do you want to buy in the early stages of a downtrend, or in the later stages?

The answer is simple: the late stages of the downtrend.

The problem is that we don't know when that stage begins.

Thankfully, I've looked at all the data using a variety of different statistical indicators and I found a way to put the odds in my favor.

I shared an accumulation signal a few weeks ago.

I forecasted the retest of the 200-week MA cloud.

We're on some key levels literally right now.

So I've been buying.

Specifically, I bought back 20% of what I sold at $97k.

I'm going to buy a lot more in the weeks and months ahead, at strategic levels and at strategic times, based on my analysis.

Again... yes, my analysis is bearish.

That analysis has been proven correct.

I think it will continue to be proven correct.

I'm not sharing that analysis to scare you.

I'm sharing that analysis to prepare you... because prepared minds are able to navigate chaos, rather than react to chaos.

Think carefully about which type of investor you want to be.

Lock in.

Embrace nuance.

And good luck to you all.

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