🔥 Event Review

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has undergone dramatic changes. On February 28, from the market opening, the price of ETH rapidly fell amidst fluctuations. At around 14:16, Israel launched a preemptive airstrike against Iran, targeting multiple locations with missile strikes, which led to a sudden increase in global risk aversion. Following this, panic spread through the market, with institutional investors and whales accelerating their sell-offs, leading to forced liquidations of several long positions, including a $100 million crypto long position and the liquidation of well-known trader "Maji"'s ETH long (with a liquidation amount of approximately $2.28 million), causing prices to plummet.

🕒 Timeline

• 14:00: At the opening, ETH price stabilized around $1920, appearing calm but with signs of volatility beginning to emerge.
• 14:00–14:36: In just 36 minutes, the price of ETH collapsed from about $1920 to $1856, a decline of 3.31%.
• 14:16: Israel launched a preemptive attack, targeting Iran with missile strikes, immediately triggering market risk aversion.
• 14:30: Panic escalated—approximately $100 million in crypto long positions were liquidated, and "Maji"'s ETH long position was forcibly closed (liquidation amount approximately $2.28 million), leading to a sharp tightening of liquidity.
• 14:55: The overall price of ETH further declined, dropping from about $1919 to $1834, indicating a trend of capital withdrawal.
• 15:05: After severe fluctuations, the price of ETH slightly rebounded to $1853.29, but overall remained in a low fluctuation state.

🔍 Cause Analysis

The intense market fluctuations were driven by two main factors:

1. Escalation of geopolitical risks
   Israel's airstrike against Iran quickly heightened global risk aversion. The uncertainty of geopolitical situations drove capital toward safe havens, leading to a sell-off of numerous risk assets in the market, which directly caused a sharp decline in cryptocurrency prices.

2. Institutional fund flow and liquidity tightening
   Various data indicated a significant net outflow of funds from the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF, with institutions and large investors liquidating positions for profit or to cut losses, exacerbating market panic. Additionally, institutional actions such as forced liquidations tightened liquidity sharply, further driving prices down.

📈 Technical Analysis

Based on the [ETH/USDT 45-minute] candlestick data from Binance perpetual contracts, we observed the following technical signals:

• Bollinger Bands squeezing and breaking down: The Bollinger Bands experienced a brief contraction before breaking downwards, displaying clear bearish signals.
• Oversold indicators (J value, RSI): The J value is in extreme oversold territory, and the RSI is also in the oversold zone, suggesting a potential short-term rebound, but the overall bearish trend has not been reversed.
• KDJ indicator divergence: The KDJ values show significant divergence, exacerbating the risk of downward trends.
• OBV indicator trending downwards: The volume indicator has consistently broken below previous lows, indicating sustained selling pressure.
• Volume-price divergence phenomenon is evident: Although trading volume has surged by about 497.78%, the price continues to fall significantly, indicating that panic selling dominates the market.
• Moving average system in bearish arrangement: Current prices are below the MA5, MA10, MA20, and MA50, with all moving averages and EMAs (EMA5/10/20/50/120) showing a bearish arrangement, confirming the strength and breadth of the downward trend in the short term.

🌟 Market Outlook

In the complex and changing external environment, ETH still faces certain downward pressure in the short term. Future trends may be influenced by the following factors:

• Whether the geopolitical situation alleviates: If geopolitical tensions ease, market risk aversion may gradually dissipate, potentially leading to a technical rebound in prices; conversely, further escalation could cause larger adjustments.
• Institutional and large investor fund movements: The flow of market capital remains key; if institutions re-enter the market, it may provide necessary support; if liquidation continues, it could intensify selling pressure.
• Key support levels on the technical front: Currently, ETH is below several moving averages, and attention needs to be paid to support levels below. Short-term rebounds may only represent technical corrections, and the overall trend still needs to be observed regarding long-term moving averages and structural support changes.

Investors should remain cautious in this environment. It is recommended to build positions in batches, strictly control positions and risks, while monitoring international situations and institutional fund movements, waiting for clearer market signals before making decisions.

In summary, this ETH crash not only reflects the market's sensitive reaction to geopolitical risks but also exposes structural issues arising from institutional liquidations and liquidity tightening. In the face of such volatility, rational judgment and prudent operation will be the most necessary strategies at present.

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