Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Dingdong (@XiaMiPP)
OKX market data shows that in the past 24 hours, BTC has experienced a V-shaped strong rebound, almost approaching the important threshold of 70,000 US dollars, currently reported at 68,000 US dollars, with a 24H increase of 6.1%. The price performance of ETH and SOL is also very strong, significantly increasing following Bitcoin's rebound, with ETH breaking above 2,100 US dollars, a maximum 24H increase of 15%, currently reported at 2,050 US dollars; SOL breaking above 90 US dollars, currently reported at 87 US dollars, with a 24H increase of 8.1%. Market sentiment has clearly warmed up, all three have now reached key resistance levels, watch to see if they can hold and continue to advance.
In the US stock market, the Dow Jones rose 0.63%, the S&P 500 index rose 0.81%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.26%; the cryptocurrency sector collectively strengthened, with Circle up 35.47%, recovering losses that lasted a month in one day.
In terms of derivatives, in the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount was 579 million US dollars, with long positions liquidated at 115 million US dollars and short positions liquidated at 464 million US dollars, the largest single liquidation occurred in Hyperliquid - BTC-USD at a value of 10.4154 million US dollars.
In terms of capital, according to sosovalue data, yesterday Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of 250 million US dollars in one day, which may end the previous five weeks of net outflows. Lookonchain monitored that in the past 5 hours, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF IBIT had a net inflow of 1,225 BTC, valued at 83.92 million US dollars.
“Bitcoin Should be Worth at Least 150,000 US Dollars”
This morning, the cryptocurrency industry was shaken by a single statement: “It is well known that Bitcoin should now be worth at least 150,000 US dollars.”
The reason is that the lawsuit filed by the Terraform Labs liquidator against the well-known US market maker Jane Street has unveiled a storm of market suspicion lasting for months. An article that quickly spread on X (by Justin Bechler) connects three clues, pointing directly to Jane Street systematically suppressing Bitcoin prices through privileged status, causing them to be far below the “appropriate” level.
The core allegations break down into three acts: first, allegations of “insider old accounts” related to the Terra/LUNA collapse. They obtained insider information through a private group created by former intern Bryce Pratt called “Bryce's Secret,” allowing for an early exit and accelerating the collapse. The lawsuit claims these trades “could not have been realized without non-public information” and seeks damages;
Second, the “timely crash” model at 10 AM ET. Almost every trading day, Bitcoin bizarrely drops 2-3% around this time, accurately liquidating leveraged longs, only to rebound a few hours later. On-chain analyses such as by Glassnode show this algorithmic pressure is highly regularized. Coincidentally, after the Terra lawsuit was exposed, this “10 AM dive” model briefly vanished; once the storm passed, it returned;
Third, appear to be super bullish, but likely have massive net shorts. Public 13F filings show Jane Street holding over 20 million shares of IBIT (with a market value nearing 2.5 billion US dollars), and a 473% increase in MSTR holdings, superficially appearing to be extremely bullish. However, industry insiders suggest that Jane Street is using the ETF creation/redemption mechanism to accumulate significant Bitcoin spot inventories while likely issuing numerous Bitcoin options based on this, maintaining directional neutrality through derivatives, effectively releasing synthetic Bitcoin supplies into the market, thus weakening Bitcoin's scarcity narrative, creating long-term upward resistance on spot prices.
The storm sparked by this statement continues to brew, whether the accusations against Jane Street by Terraform’s liquidator will hold remains to be seen in court. However, this controversy provides the market with an emotional outlet.
More insider details can also refer to the recently published article by Odaily Planet Daily titled From the Terra Collapse to “10 AM Strike,” How Does Jane Street Manipulate Markets Across Two Continents?
However, Monad co-founder Keone Hon also stated that the conspiracy theory of Jane Street suppressing Bitcoin below 150,000 US dollars does not hold water. Hedging short IBIT positions with long futures means, on average, other parties will ultimately hold short futures positions, and they must hedge this position with long spot positions. The total sum of all positions in the market (converted to delta values) always equals the total supply of Bitcoin (about 20 million). Of course, either party can decide to short independently, increasing long positions. In short, hedging futures with ETFs means there are always corresponding positions in the market, short-term market distortions are possible but challenging to contradict supply-demand conservation in the long term.
Market Confidence from Two Financial Reports
If conspiracy theories provide the market with emotional tension, what may truly drive prices upward could be two unexpectedly good financial reports.
First, Circle has delivered a remarkable Q4 and annual report for 2025. Q4 revenue reached 770 million, a year-on-year increase of 77% and a sequential increase of 4.1%, surpassing the previous market expectation of 749 million, most importantly, EPS (earnings per share) also significantly exceeded expectations, showing a notable increase in profitability, mainly benefiting from the recovery of USDC scale and interest income brought by the high-interest environment. Additionally, USDC circulation has substantially increased year-on-year, and on-chain transaction volume continues to expand, indicating structural demand for stablecoins is still on the rise, which is the core reason the market provides positive feedback. It at least proves that the panic caused by previous whale sell-offs was mostly a portfolio rebalancing, but the capital remains within the crypto industry, and they may just be waiting for the right timing to “buy the dip.”
The second financial report comes from NVIDIA. Its Q4 revenue of 68.1 billion and data center revenue of 62.3 billion also surpassed market expectations and provided another optimistic quarterly revenue forecast, guiding around 78 billion, higher than the market estimate of 73 billion, indicating that the large-scale AI computing construction is still on track.
This is crucial for the AI narrative; the market needs NVIDIA to prove that the AI investment boom can convert into sustained profits, alleviating concerns over an AI bubble.
Institutional Allocation and Mining Company Movements
On the demand side, subtle changes have already occurred.
Multiple university endowments are adjusting their investment strategies in the context of declining returns on traditional assets, beginning to allocate cryptocurrency ETFs. Harvard University and Brown University have disclosed their holdings in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF positions in the latest 13F filings, although relatively small compared to their overall portfolio size, it indicates that digital assets have moved from the fringe of institutional finance into the mainstream toolbox.
Amid consecutive declines in Bitcoin, many small and medium-sized DATs have surrendered, choosing to sell their held Bitcoin or terminate buying plans. It seems that only Strategy remains the market's sole bullish force, but DDC Enterprise Limited announced this week the purchase of 50 more Bitcoin, bringing their total Bitcoin holdings to 2,118, making it the company's seventh consecutive week of increasing Bitcoin holdings, currently ranking 34th globally among publicly traded companies by Bitcoin holdings.
Changes in the mining sector are also worth noting. While Bitcoin prices are dropping, several mining company stocks are rising against the trend, with TeraWulf's stock price increasing by 31% this month, Cipher Mining up 8%; Hut 8 up 6%; Core Scientific basically unchanged. Analysts believe that Bitcoin mining companies are currently among the most shorted targets by hedge funds, and if the fundamentals improve, it could trigger a short covering rally. Moreover, these companies have locked in long-term and attractive power contracts, providing them with a structural advantage on the energy cost side, and their strategic value extends beyond merely Bitcoin mining; capital is flowing towards “structural winners,” while traditional mining companies may face risks of marginalization.
Conclusion
This V-shaped rebound may not be the starting point of a trend reversal, but it has accomplished something more important: providing the market with a new explanatory framework. When the market has reasons to explain the price increase again, there is a possibility of rebuilding risk appetite.
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