Whether a tax refund is known yet is still uncertain, but if there is a tax refund, it certainly is not a good thing in the short term; the money has already been mostly spent, and from the data I can see, it should be nearly $300 billion by now. If there is to be a tax refund, it means the U.S. will have to issue additional debt, which would be a liquidity drain for the short-term market.

From the perspective of the risk market, the best outcome would be to declare the tariffs invalid but not refund taxes (this is achievable); they could use other preferential conditions or tax reduction measures to compensate.

Overall, the illegality of tariffs is certainly a good thing for the risk market in the medium to long term; at most, it will cause some short-term turbulence, but it reduces many unnecessary troubles in the medium to long term, and the rest depends on the Federal Reserve and the midterm elections.

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