Eastern Standard Time this week, the U.S. policy circle and the cryptocurrency circle almost simultaneously issued two opposing signals: on one side, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett released a dovish hint that “the Federal Reserve still has significant room for interest rate cuts”; on the other side, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes warned that the weakness in Bitcoin resembles an early warning signal that dollar credit is tightening. The recent decline in Bitcoin has been interpreted by some participants as a precursor to a tightening dollar credit chain, rather than a purely technical correction. Against this backdrop, the Abu Dhabi sovereign fund Mubadala holds approximately 630.6 million dollars in positions through the BlackRock Bitcoin Trust, contrasting sharply with the results of an investigation where more than half of American cryptocurrency investors are worried about facing IRS penalties, highlighting the stark difference between sovereign funds “laying in wait” and American retail investors “pulling back.” The main line of the article is thus clear: when traditional monetary policy and cryptocurrency assets are placed on the same global balance sheet, their competition is far more than just fluctuations in price curves, but rather a direct clash of different funds, regulatory environments, and risk appetites.

The White House Calls for Easing: Rate Cut Expectations Ignite Imagination

● Policy Alignment: According to reports from Planet Daily and other media, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett publicly stated that the Federal Reserve “still has significant room for interest rate cuts.” While lacking a full speech scenario and verbatim transcript, the direction is clear—amid mixed inflationary pressures and growth concerns, the administration is reserving public opinion and policy space for future monetary easing.

● Liquidity Logic: In the inertia of market perception, once there is a clear expectation of a rate cut cycle, it is often interpreted as a prelude to a resurgence of dollar liquidity globally. Traditional equities, high-yield bonds, and even high-risk assets, including Bitcoin, are typically imagined as potential beneficiaries of a new round of “bull market,” a template that has been repeatedly applied to the cryptocurrency cycle.

● Emotional Interpretation: After the news broke, the crypto circle quickly related it to past rounds of “easing—rise in risk appetite—amplified volatility in crypto.” Many traders discussed in social media and internal groups whether the “next liquidity feast” could again elevate cryptocurrency valuations, leading to short-term sentiment leaning towards early bets on a warming currency environment.

● Narrative Stimulus: It is important to emphasize that currently there is no credible data supporting a specific path or timetable for rate cuts. What the market is trading more are directional “easing expectations” and the symbolic significance of policy statements. This expectation alone is enough to ignite imagination, becoming narrative fuel that drives capital to attempt left-side configurations, rather than established real-world variables.

Hayes Sounds the Alarm: Bitcoin's Role as a “Tightening Alarm”

● Credit Tightening Perspective: Contrary to the “rate cut is favorable” argument, Arthur Hayes stressed in reports from Deep Tide TechFlow and other media that the weakening of Bitcoin’s price may not simply be driven by negative news or technical adjustments, but rather reflects that risks of dollar credit tightening are accumulating. He believes that the crypto market is the first to sense the liquidity dehydration of the traditional financial system.

● Early Sensor Framework: Hayes consistently regards Bitcoin as an “early sensor” for pressures on the dollar system—when traditional credit markets appear to be operating smoothly on the surface, high beta assets like Bitcoin signal ahead through liquidity withdrawal and a sharp brake on risk appetite. The current weak trend is interpreted within this framework as a preemptive response to potential credit risks.

● Emotional Reversal: Under the influence of this perspective, some traders began to shift from the optimistic logic of “rate cuts will ultimately benefit all risky assets” to a defensive mode of “credit contraction phase will indiscriminately suppress all leveraged and high-volatility assets,” with position management shifting from chasing beta to reducing leverage and increasing cash and short-duration asset ratios.

● Trends and Emotions: Without referencing any specific prices or volatility ranges, it can be observed that the directional change from strong to weak for Bitcoin, combined with market discussions around keywords like “dollar shortage” and “rising financing costs,” has significantly cooled the originally optimistic sentiment expecting a loosening market, and some individuals have even begun to view Bitcoin as a tool for hedging traditional system risks rather than merely a speculative asset.

Sovereign Funds Lay in Wait for Bitcoin, Demonstration Effect of 630 Million Position

● Disclosure Information: According to reports from Golden Finance, the Abu Dhabi sovereign fund Mubadala has been disclosed to hold a position valued at approximately 630.6 million dollars in the BlackRock Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). This figure alone is not enough to change the global capital landscape but provides a symbolically significant sample in the discussion of “who is buying during the downturn of the crypto cycle.”

● Geopolitical and Allocation Significance: From the perspective of geopolitics and asset allocation, Middle Eastern sovereign capital has begun to attempt to incorporate Bitcoin into a diversified portfolio, reflecting a hedge against long-term dollar purchasing power and the correlation with traditional assets. For resource-based economies, allocating a portion of crypto assets besides oil and gas revenues and dollar assets is an exploration to diversify sovereign wealth risks in an era of high uncertainty, rather than a reckless gamble.

● Alternative Asset Hedging Approach: In a phase of high uncertainty regarding interest rate paths, traditional institutions often dynamically allocate weights among alternative assets such as gold, commodities, private equity, hedge funds, and Bitcoin, attempting to hedge against potential phase depreciation of the dollar and systemic risks in the global financial system. This position taken by Mubadala seems more like a link in this cross-asset hedging portfolio rather than an isolated event.

● Trend to be Verified: It is essential to maintain restraint; current public information cannot reveal the specific building rhythm and timing of this Bitcoin trust position, nor can it prove that the overall trend of sovereign wealth funds increasingly accumulating Bitcoin has been established. This proposition still requires more regulatory filings, annual report disclosures, and authoritative documentation for verification, and any narrative that exaggerates a case into a “wave” carries the risk of overextension.

Another Side of American Retail Investors: Afraid of IRS and Daring Not to Bet Full

● Investigation Signals: According to CoinDesk and PAnews citing survey data, more than half of American crypto investors are worried about facing IRS penalties, with tax enforcement becoming a significant uncertainty looming over retail investors. In contrast to Middle Eastern sovereign funds quietly increasing their holdings, regular U.S. investors are more concerned with whether “mistakes in tax reporting will lead to penalties.”

● New Regulations Amplifying Anxiety: Under the IRS's new regulatory framework, starting from 2025, U.S. taxpayers will need to report more comprehensive digital asset transactions, with exchanges and certain platforms bearing more reporting obligations. As the detailed provisions are still being clarified, questions about “how much to report, how to report, and what happens if there is underreporting” are continuously amplifying retail investors' compliance anxiety.

● Fragmented Picture: Thus, a scenario emerges wherein on one side, global sovereign capital with a long-term perspective tentatively begins to incorporate Bitcoin into their asset pool; while on the other side, U.S. retail investors face tax uncertainties, opting to observe, reduce leverage, and even proactively decrease on-chain activities. The cryptocurrency market displays a fragmented picture in its capital source structure, where “the top is augmenting, while the bottom is receding.”

● Concerns about Trading Activity: The uncertainty of tax compliance costs and potential penalties is invisibly raising the threshold for U.S. participation in crypto trading. Even if it is difficult to quantify its specific impact on trading scale and depth, there are widespread concerns that if the regulatory stance remains severely rigid and enforcement becomes inflexible over a long period, one of the world's most crucial capital markets, the U.S., may see a sustained decline in its activity in the crypto realm.

AI Attracting Capital while Crypto Bleeding: A Balancing Act on the Same Balance Sheet

● Capital Flow Sample: According to Golden Finance, Saudi company Humain announced an investment of approximately 3 billion dollars in xAI, becoming one of the iconic events in recent AI financing rounds. Although specific technologies and commercial terms have not been fully disclosed, this figure is sufficient to show that in the asset balance sheet of global risk capital, AI is becoming one of the most attractive capital magnets.

● Competition for Funds: In a macro backdrop of rising interest rates and tightening credit, AI and crypto often vie for the same pool of funds willing to bear high volatility and uncertainty—whether from family offices, hedge funds, or high-net-worth individuals' “high-risk quotas.” As AI presents a clearer narrative supported by industrial landing stories and policy endorsements, the crypto sphere faces a dual dilution of attention and capital.

● Asset Rotation Imagination: Some institutions have already begun to internally research and practice reallocating some funds originally meant for on-chain infrastructure, application projects, or even secondary tokens, towards AI equities, computing power data centers, and model companies. Although currently there are limited public cases, the asset rotation from “on-chain projects to AI infrastructure” is becoming a regular option in investment committee meetings, rather than a marginal discussion.

● Remaining Questions: An open question that arises from this is: if in the future, global liquidity does not significantly expand but remains in a relatively tight balance or even tight state, then under the premise that the super narrative of AI draws away substantial funding chips, to what extent can crypto assets still attract incremental capital? The answer to this question will determine whether the next crypto cycle experiences “localized prosperity” or a “comprehensive recovery.”

Bitcoin Choices Under Rate Cut Promises and Tightening Shadows

● Macro Tension: In summary, on one side is Hassett’s mention of “still having substantial room for rate cuts,” painting a potential easing picture for the market; on the other side is the shadow of dollar credit tightening warned by Hayes, which has been reflected in Bitcoin's trends and emotions. Policy alignment leans towards easing expectations, while market prices are grappling with concerns over credit contraction, creating the core tension in the current crypto narrative.

● Structural Division of Funds: Abu Dhabi's Mubadala has laid out about 630.6 million dollars in Bitcoin positions via IBIT, symbolizing the tentative entry of long-term funds like sovereign funds; in contrast, more than half of American crypto investors' worries about IRS penalties have led retail investors to reduce their risk exposure. The structural division between sovereign funds “getting in” and retail investors “getting out” will inevitably alter Bitcoin's future volatility characteristics and market-leading forces.

● Prudent Judgment: In this multifaceted environment with intertwining forces, it is challenging to use a single macro narrative—whether “rate cut bull market” or “tightening kill valuation”—to explain Bitcoin's price direction in the short term. The future will largely depend on the pace of regulatory implementation, the evolution of global institutional allocation willingness, and the sustained siphoning degree of competing narratives like AI on capital, rather than any slogan-like judgment.

● Continuous Monitoring: Whether it is the scale of holdings for institutions like Mubadala, the impact of U.S. tax investigations on retail behaviors, or the seesaw dynamics between AI and crypto, currently all remain in the early stages with limited samples. Readers should continuously track official documents and authoritative media updates when interpreting these signals, cautiously addressing the temptation to extrapolate trends from individual cases to avoid making overstated conclusions in the absence of sufficient information.

Join our community to discuss and grow stronger together!
Official Telegram community: https://t.me/aicoincn
AiCoin Chinese Twitter: https://x.com/AiCoinzh

OKX Welfare Group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=l61eM4owQ
Binance Welfare Group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=ynr7d1P6Z

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。