Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Wenser (@wenser 2010)
Yesterday, following the major announcement in January about "plans to launch a tokenized securities trading and on-chain settlement platform supporting 7*24 hour trading", the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, ICE Group (Intercontinental Exchange), made two more significant moves—first, it launched seven CoinDesk index cryptocurrency futures contracts, and plans to introduce a one-month CoinDesk Overnight Rate (CDOR) USDC futures based on CoinDesk's overnight rate (pending approval); second, it launched the Polymarket signal and sentiment tool, providing market signals such as prediction market data and analysis aimed at institutional investors. A series of actions indicate that ICE Group, as the "parent" of one of the largest stock exchanges in the U.S., is constructing its own "new ecology of nine children."
In the current era where traditional financial markets and cryptocurrency markets are deeply intertwined, ICE Group has transformed from a behind-the-scenes planner into a trend leader.
ICE Launches CoinDesk Cryptocurrency Futures Contracts: Providing More Options for the Securities Market
In a previous article "NYSE Plans to Open 7*24 Hour Tokenized Stock Trading, Competitors are Bewildered," we analyzed the ambition of the NYSE to integrate liquidity from both the TradFi and DeFi markets and listed both positive and negative viewpoints from the market at that time.
In less than a month, the parent company of the NYSE, ICE Group, stepped out from behind the scenes and directly introduced seven CoinDesk cryptocurrency futures contracts that align more closely with crypto-native indicators, including: ICE CoinDesk 20 Index Futures, ICE CoinDesk 5 Index Futures, ICE CoinDesk Bitcoin Futures, ICE CoinDesk Ether Futures, ICE CoinDesk Solana Futures, ICE CoinDesk XRP Futures, and ICE CoinDesk BNB Futures, with the contracts priced in USD and cash-settled.
It is worth mentioning that the CoinDesk index-related cryptocurrency futures contracts have the following advantages:
- 1. Historical significance—CoinDesk index indicators have been operational since 2014, with flagship indices like the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (XBX) regarded as one of the foundational indicators in the industry, and products such as BlackRock's BTC ETFs use it as a reference index, with over $40 billion in assets (like ETFs and funds) linked to this index.
- 2. Broad coverage—CoinDesk 20 index covers about 90% of mainstream cryptocurrencies, using market cap weighting and cap design to avoid dominance by a single asset, meeting institutional investment standards, with the total market cap of related products exceeding $16 billion; CoinDesk 5 index tracks the performance of the five largest constituents by market cap in the CoinDesk 20 index while balancing the need for index equilibrium and acknowledging the market position of high market cap cryptocurrencies.
- 3. First-mover advantage—ICE Group previously collaborated with CoinDesk Indices on Singapore futures products, and the transparency and data quality of CoinDesk indices meet regulatory compliance requirements, helping ICE Group to quickly expand its crypto product line and lower the understanding barriers for investment institutions.
Thus, ICE is utilizing the CoinDesk index to introduce cryptocurrency futures contracts into traditional financial trading markets, providing more trading options for professional institutional investors; this, in turn, brings more liquidity into the cryptocurrency market—through seven CoinDesk index cryptocurrency futures contracts priced in USD and settled in cash, institutional traders can flexibly hedge risk assets and diversify their asset positions.
The subsequent product that ICE Group plans to promote, "one-month CoinDesk Overnight Rate (CDOR) USDC futures based on the CoinDesk overnight rate," further expands the influence of the cryptocurrency market on the traditional financial markets.
It is no exaggeration to say that ICE's move is the first time that a traditional securities exchange has introduced derivatives based on on-chain DeFi rates, which means that the annualized overnight borrowing rate of on-chain lending protocols has been recognized by traditional financial markets, facilitating investors to hedge USDC borrowing costs or lock in yields. Regardless of how the product performs after its launch, this is a historic step. In the current down cycle of the crypto market, it is akin to injecting fresh blood into it.
If we liken the traditional financial market to a vegetable market, the launch of the CoinDesk index cryptocurrency futures contracts serves as ICE Group's "vegetable stall" providing customers with more "dishes;" while the launch of Polymarket signal and sentiment tools resembles ICE Group offering "price influence indicators" to "buyers" (Odaily Planet Daily Note: meaning professional investment institutions and investors) to facilitate effective decision-making on "which dish to buy."
ICE Group Launches Polymarket Signals and Sentiment Tools: An "Information Shovel" for Investors
In September last year, ICE Group invested $2 billion in Polymarket at a valuation of $9 billion. At that time, the prediction market was on the brink of a trading volume explosion, with the industry's monthly trading volume still around $5 billion. However, as the overall crypto market languished, prediction events occurred one after another, and capital institutions were strongly bullish, starting in the fourth quarter of last year, the entire prediction market sector experienced an explosive growth in trading volume—monthly trading volumes continuously reached new highs, swiftly surpassing $13 billion in November, marking a more than fourfold increase compared to the 2024 U.S. presidential election year.
From a certain perspective, the probability trends of various betting events on Polymarket serve as the best "risk signal indicators," and ICE Group recognized the decision-supporting value of this aspect.
We can give two simple examples to illustrate the specific role of this event.
- Betting events on Polymarket regarding "when and how the U.S. will attack Iran" can provide auxiliary information for energy asset traders and hedge funds. If the likelihood of this event suddenly increases and trading volume surges, it often indicates rising tensions in certain regions, and energy assets, such as oil, are likely to see significant price increases, enabling institutional investors to position themselves for profit in advance or to acquire safe-haven assets while selling risk assets.
- Betting events on various weather conditions on Polymarket can serve as important auxiliary information for institutional investors to assess the yields and price trends of major agricultural commodities, such as corn and soybeans, as well as related concept stocks. The real-time "event probability trends" on the prediction market platform can help investment institutions adjust their portfolios before actual weather events affect supply chains/prices, thus avoiding asset losses due to concentrated holdings in high-risk stocks.
In other words, various betting events on the prediction market can identify anomalies ahead of time, thereby materializing the potential impacts on related assets.
It is noteworthy that the data related to Polymarket is not the only information source ICE Group provides to institutional investors; previous sources also include data from Reddit and Dow Jones. Additionally, the cross-validation of multiple sources can further enhance the accuracy and sensitivity of ICE Group's market signals and sentiment tools.
With the operation of this "truth machine" powered by real money, ICE Group essentially opens a window of probability for institutional investors to "see the future in advance."
Conclusion: ICE Group is Building its Own "Cryptocurrency Map"
In September last year, the U.S. SEC's cryptocurrency special working group held talks with the NYSE and ICE Group regarding cryptocurrency regulation, covering topics such as crypto derivatives and tokenized stock trading. Prior to this, ICE Group collaborated with Circle and Chainlink on USDC integration and the on-chain processing of foreign exchange and precious metal data.
According to available information, under the crypto-friendly regulatory environment created by the Trump administration, ICE Group is making significant strides into the "crypto financial era," gathering its own "cryptocurrency map" through investments, collaborations, and expanding trading targets. In the near future, Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Wenser (@wenser 2010)
Following the major announcement in January about "plans to launch a tokenized securities trading and on-chain settlement platform supporting 7*24 hour trading," the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, ICE Group (Intercontinental Exchange), made two more significant moves yesterday—first, it launched seven CoinDesk index cryptocurrency futures contracts, and plans to introduce a one-month CoinDesk Overnight Rate (CDOR) USDC futures based on CoinDesk's overnight rate (pending approval); second, it launched the Polymarket signal and sentiment tool, providing market signals such as prediction market data and analysis aimed at institutional investors. A series of actions indicate that ICE Group, as the "parent" of one of the largest stock exchanges in the traditional world, is constructing its own "new ecology of nine children."
In the current era where traditional financial markets and cryptocurrency markets are deeply intertwined, ICE Group has transformed from a behind-the-scenes planner into a trend leader.
ICE Launches CoinDesk Cryptocurrency Futures Contracts: Providing More Options for the Securities Market
In a previous article "NYSE Plans to Open 7*24 Hour Tokenized Stock Trading, Competitors are Bewildered," we analyzed the ambition of the NYSE to integrate liquidity from both the TradFi and DeFi markets and listed both positive and negative viewpoints from the market at that time.
In less than a month, the parent company of the NYSE, ICE Group, stepped out from behind the scenes and directly introduced seven CoinDesk cryptocurrency futures contracts that align more closely with crypto-native indicators, including: ICE CoinDesk 20 Index Futures, ICE CoinDesk 5 Index Futures, ICE CoinDesk Bitcoin Futures, ICE CoinDesk Ether Futures, ICE CoinDesk Solana Futures, ICE CoinDesk XRP Futures, and ICE CoinDesk BNB Futures, with the contracts priced in USD and cash-settled.
It is worth mentioning that the CoinDesk index-related cryptocurrency futures contracts have the following advantages:
- Historical significance—CoinDesk index indicators have been operational since 2014, with flagship indices like the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (XBX) regarded as one of the foundational indicators in the industry, and products such as BlackRock's BTC ETFs use it as a reference index, with over $40 billion in assets (like ETFs and funds) linked to this index.
- Broad coverage—CoinDesk 20 index covers about 90% of mainstream cryptocurrencies, using market cap weighting and cap design to avoid dominance by a single asset, meeting institutional investment standards, with the total market cap of related products exceeding $16 billion; CoinDesk 5 index tracks the performance of the five largest constituents by market cap in the CoinDesk 20 index while balancing the need for index equilibrium and acknowledging the market position of high market cap cryptocurrencies.
- First-mover advantage—ICE Group previously collaborated with CoinDesk Indices on Singapore futures products, and the transparency and data quality of CoinDesk indices meet regulatory compliance requirements, helping ICE Group to quickly expand its crypto product line and lower the understanding barriers for investment institutions.
Thus, ICE is utilizing the CoinDesk index to introduce cryptocurrency futures contracts into traditional financial trading markets, providing more trading options for professional institutional investors; this, in turn, brings more liquidity into the cryptocurrency market—through seven CoinDesk index cryptocurrency futures contracts priced in USD and settled in cash, institutional traders can flexibly hedge risk assets and diversify their asset positions.
The subsequent product that ICE Group plans to promote, "one-month CoinDesk Overnight Rate (CDOR) USDC futures based on the CoinDesk overnight rate," further expands the influence of the cryptocurrency market on traditional financial markets.
It is no exaggeration to say that ICE's move is the first time that a traditional securities exchange has introduced derivatives based on on-chain DeFi rates, which means that the annualized overnight borrowing rate of on-chain lending protocols has been recognized by traditional financial markets, facilitating investors to hedge USDC borrowing costs or lock in yields. Regardless of how the product performs after its launch, this is a historic step. In the current down cycle of the crypto market, it is akin to injecting fresh blood into it.
If we liken the traditional financial market to a vegetable market, the launch of the CoinDesk index cryptocurrency futures contracts serves as ICE Group's "vegetable stall" providing customers with more "dishes;" while the launch of Polymarket signal and sentiment tools resembles ICE Group offering "price influence indicators" to "buyers" (Odaily Planet Daily Note: meaning professional investment institutions and investors) to facilitate effective decision-making on "which dish to buy."
ICE Group Launches Polymarket Signals and Sentiment Tools: An "Information Shovel" for Investors
In September last year, ICE Group invested $2 billion in Polymarket at a valuation of $9 billion. At that time, the prediction market was on the brink of a trading volume explosion, with the industry's monthly trading volume still around $5 billion. However, as the overall crypto market languished, prediction events occurred one after another, and capital institutions were strongly bullish, starting in the fourth quarter of last year, the entire prediction market sector experienced an explosive growth in trading volume—monthly trading volumes continuously reached new highs, swiftly surpassing $13 billion in November, marking a more than fourfold increase compared to the 2024 U.S. presidential election year.
From a certain perspective, the probability trends of various betting events on Polymarket serve as the best "risk signal indicators," and ICE Group recognized the decision-supporting value of this aspect.
We can give two simple examples to illustrate the specific role of this event.
- Betting events on Polymarket regarding "when and how the U.S. will attack Iran" can provide auxiliary information for energy asset traders and hedge funds. If the likelihood of this event suddenly increases and trading volume surges, it often indicates rising tensions in certain regions, and energy assets, such as oil, are likely to see significant price increases, enabling institutional investors to position themselves for profit in advance or to acquire safe-haven assets while selling risk assets.
- Betting events on various weather conditions on Polymarket can serve as important auxiliary information for institutional investors to assess the yields and price trends of major agricultural commodities, such as corn and soybeans, as well as related concept stocks. The real-time "event probability trends" on the prediction market platform can help investment institutions adjust their portfolios before actual weather events affect supply chains/prices, thus avoiding asset losses due to concentrated holdings in high-risk stocks.
In other words, various betting events on the prediction market can identify anomalies ahead of time, thereby materializing the potential impacts on related assets.
It is noteworthy that the data related to Polymarket is not the only information source ICE Group provides to institutional investors; previous sources also include data from Reddit and Dow Jones. Additionally, the cross-validation of multiple sources can further enhance the accuracy and sensitivity of ICE Group's market signals and sentiment tools.
With the operation of this "truth machine" powered by real money, ICE Group essentially opens a window of probability for institutional investors to "see the future in advance."
Conclusion: ICE Group is Building its Own "Cryptocurrency Map"
In September last year, the U.S. SEC's cryptocurrency special working group held talks with the NYSE and ICE Group regarding cryptocurrency regulation, covering topics such as crypto derivatives and tokenized stock trading. Prior to this, ICE Group collaborated with Circle and Chainlink on USDC integration and the on-chain processing of foreign exchange and precious metal data.
According to available information, under the crypto-friendly regulatory environment created by the Trump administration, ICE Group is making significant strides into the "crypto financial era," gathering its own "cryptocurrency map" through investments, collaborations, and expanding trading targets. In the near future,
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