U.S. Treasury traders are nervously watching the fluctuating yields on their screens, while fund managers in Hong Kong are assessing how much of their portfolios to allocate to tokenized assets, all of which is linked to the latest forecast from one of the world's largest asset management companies.
At the beginning of 2026, BlackRock clearly positioned digital assets as the infrastructure of the financial system, marking a profound evolution in the world's largest asset management company's understanding of crypto assets.
1. Report Background
● BlackRock, as the world's largest asset management company, manages over $10 trillion in assets, and its annual outlook report has long been regarded as an important investment barometer by global investors. This year's report is titled "Challenging Limits," providing a comprehensive analysis of the structural changes brought about by the development of AI technology and its profound impact on the global financial system.
● The report starts from the core perspective of "micro is macro," revealing that an era dominated by a few tech giants is coming, fundamentally changing the macroeconomic landscape.
● The report specifically points out that there is no longer a so-called "neutral position" in the current financial markets, as even simple index investments express a judgment on the future direction of the market to some extent.
2. Micro is Macro
● One of the most striking points in the BlackRock report is "micro is macro." This concept reveals the uniqueness of the current development of AI technology: the capital expenditures of a few tech giants have become large enough to influence the entire macro economy.
● BlackRock predicts that from 2025 to 2030, global AI-related investments will reach an astonishing scale of $5-8 trillion. In 2026 alone, these investments will contribute to U.S. economic growth at three times the historical average.
● This massive capital expenditure is primarily led by a few tech companies, which experience a significant time lag between their substantial upfront investments and the revenues that can only be realized later. This "investment upfront, returns delayed" model means these companies need to leverage to cross financing thresholds, bringing new risks and opportunities to the entire financial system.
3. Rising Leverage Challenges
As AI construction progresses, systemic leverage is quietly rising. AI builders require substantial upfront investments, while related revenues need to be recognized later, leading to a surge in debt financing demand.
● The recent phenomenon of large tech companies issuing bonds on a massive scale reflects this trend. The asset-liability situations of these companies are undergoing fundamental changes, shifting from a light asset model to a heavy asset model.
● At the same time, governments around the world are already in a highly indebted state, making the entire financial system more susceptible to shocks such as soaring interest rates.
● In this environment, BlackRock will tactically underweight long-term U.S. Treasuries and believes that private credit and infrastructure assets will play a key role in this wave of financing demand.
4. Illusion of Diversification
● In a market environment dominated by a few "big trends," BlackRock warns investors of facing the "illusion of diversified dispersion." Traditional notions of diversified investment may have actually become a highly concentrated bet on a few dominant trends.
● Analysis shows that after excluding traditional driving factors such as value and momentum, U.S. stock market returns increasingly reflect a single common driving source. Market concentration is intensifying, and breadth is narrowing. BlackRock believes that true diversified allocation needs to shift from broad asset classes or regional perspectives to more refined, flexible allocations and themes that can work across scenarios.
● Portfolios need to have a clear Plan B and be ready to pivot quickly. In this environment, investors should reduce blind risk dispersion and focus more on consciously taking on risks.
5. New Positioning of Digital Assets
The most groundbreaking viewpoint in the report is BlackRock's view of digital assets (especially stablecoins) as the infrastructure for payments and settlements, rather than merely speculative assets.
● Stablecoins are described as the "digital dollar rails," evolving from crypto-native tools into a bridge connecting traditional finance and digital liquidity. BlackRock clearly states that stablecoins "are no longer niche products."
● Currently, the total market capitalization of stablecoins has surpassed $298 billion, with USDT and USDC dominating. These stablecoins are expanding into areas such as cross-border payments and settlements, especially in regions where the traditional financial system is slow, expensive, and fragmented.
● In December 2025, Visa launched USDC settlement services in the U.S., with partner banks completing settlements via Solana, marking the entry of stablecoins into the core settlement segment of finance.
6. Connection Between AI Investment and Crypto Market
Although the BlackRock report does not directly elaborate on the specific connection between AI investment and the crypto market, this interactive relationship can be analyzed from several dimensions.
● First, the massive upfront investment required for AI construction may prompt investors to seek alternative asset classes with high growth potential, including crypto assets.
● Second, as AI technology develops, advancements in areas such as digital asset management, automated trading, and risk analysis may bring more mature institutional-grade tools and services to the crypto market.
● Third, the expansion of the digital economy driven by AI may accelerate global demand for more efficient and cheaper cross-border payment solutions, which is precisely where the advantages of digital assets like stablecoins lie.
7. Investment Insights
Based on the analysis of the report, several key investment insights can be drawn:
● In terms of stock allocation, BlackRock maintains a pro-risk stance, overweighting U.S. stocks (especially AI-related stocks), while believing this is a favorable environment for active stock selection.
● In fixed income, BlackRock tactically underweights long-term government bonds (such as U.S. Treasuries) because high leverage and rising capital costs are unfavorable for long bonds.
● For digital asset investors, it is essential to pay attention to the development trend of stablecoins as payment infrastructure, especially in regions where the traditional financial system is inefficient.
● In the Asian market, Hong Kong has become a pioneer in stablecoin innovation. On May 21, 2025, the Hong Kong Legislative Council passed the "Stablecoin Bill"; on June 6, the Hong Kong SAR government published a notice in the Gazette announcing that the "Stablecoin Ordinance" would officially take effect on August 1.
The report also reminds that as market concentration rises, traditional diversified allocations may actually become concentrated bets. Investors need to maintain portfolio flexibility and be prepared with a Plan B to respond to sudden changes.
As the market capitalization of stablecoins crosses the $250 billion threshold and annual trading volume exceeds $35 trillion, the global payment landscape is quietly being reshaped. In the future envisioned by the BlackRock report, stablecoins have become the "digital dollar rails," and the pipelines of the financial system are being re-laid.
Crypto assets are no longer just marginal speculative tools but are becoming the infrastructure that supports global liquidity flows, increasingly overlapping with traditional finance.
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