As 2025 comes to a close, traditional financial institutions and opinion leaders (KOLs) in the crypto space are releasing their outlooks for 2026. A market consensus is forming: a "structural bull market" phase driven by institutional capital, clear regulation, and real utility may begin, while the power structure and value logic of the market are undergoing profound reconstruction.
1. Institutional Perspective: Betting on the "Year of Ethereum" and a Structural Slow Bull Market
Traditional financial institutions, represented by Standard Chartered, are evaluating crypto assets with a more refined framework, and their adjustments in predictions are signals of market maturity.
1. Standard Chartered: Lowering Price Targets but Strengthening Ethereum's Leading Expectations
● Standard Chartered's head of digital asset research, Geoffrey Kendrick, recently stated that although the absolute price forecast for Ethereum (ETH) has been lowered, they still expect 2026 to be the "Year of Ethereum."
● The bank has reduced its target price for ETH at the end of 2026 from $12,000 to $7,500, but is more optimistic about long-term targets for 2028 and beyond, adding a new prediction of $40,000 for 2030. This adjustment is mainly based on Bitcoin's overall performance falling short of expectations, which has dragged down the outlook for dollar-denominated digital asset portfolios.
● However, Standard Chartered believes that Ethereum's fundamentals relative to Bitcoin are improving, expecting the ETH/BTC exchange rate to gradually rise.
Their core argument lies in Ethereum's structural advantages:
Dominance in stablecoins, real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, and decentralized finance (DeFi);
Network transaction volume hitting new highs due to stablecoin transfers;
Continuous enhancement of base layer capacity through upgrades like Fusaka.
Standard Chartered expects that by 2028, the market size for stablecoins and RWAs could expand to $2 trillion, with most activities processed on the Ethereum network.
2. Consensus Among Leading Institutions: Saying Goodbye to the Frenzy Cycle and Welcoming Value Integration
Reports from several top investment institutions regarding their outlook for 2026 show a high degree of consistency, shifting focus from short-term speculation to insights on fundamental industry changes.
● Grayscale defines 2026 as the "Dawn of the Institutional Era," believing the market is transitioning from a "retail cycle" to one dominated by "institutional capital," driven by macro demand for scarce digital assets and increased regulatory clarity.
● a16z steps away from price discussions, focusing on how next-generation crypto products will be genuinely adopted, proposing 17 actionable directions including AI agents on-chain (KYA), staking media, and RWA crypto-native integration.
● Bitwise is the most optimistic, believing that the "dual drive" of ETF funds (Wall Street) and trading platform holdings (retail) lays the foundation for a bull market, predicting Bitcoin will reach new highs, with its volatility potentially lower than Nvidia's stock.
● Galaxy and VanEck are relatively cautious in their predictions. Galaxy points out high market uncertainty, with Bitcoin options pricing indicating potential future divergence. VanEck believes 2026 is more likely to be a "year of turbulence," with market volatility having decreased, recommending a dollar-cost averaging approach for Bitcoin.
The table below summarizes the core trends identified by major institutions for 2026:
2. KOL Insights: Survival Strategies Amid Trend Divergence
Compared to the grand narratives of institutions, KOLs on the front lines of the market provide more specific and diverse trend judgments and survival guides.
1. Core Tracks: AI, Prediction Markets, and the Return to Fundamentals
Several KOLs point out that opportunities in 2026 will arise in areas that can generate real cash flow or address actual needs.
● The integration of AI and blockchain has been mentioned multiple times. XHunt & Biteye founder @DeFiTeddy2020 believes that the combination of AI agents and blockchain is one of the certain opportunities. Theory Ventures' Tomasz Tunguz predicts that corporate investment in AI agents will first exceed human labor costs.
● Prediction markets are highly anticipated. Wu Shuo editor Colin Wu and KOL Crypto Monkey @monkeyjiang both believe that with major events like the 2026 World Cup approaching, prediction markets (such as Polymarket) may see an explosion.
● Return to fundamentals has become a consensus. Investor @0xJeff points out that as crypto narratives recede, whether projects are sustainable and truly create value has become the new standard for judgment. DeFi OG Chen Mo @cmdefi believes the industry will enter an "era of token interest binding," where only projects that can strongly bind token value to protocol revenue and network effects will have a future.
2. Beware of Risks and Embrace Change
KOLs also generally highlight potential risks. @DeFiTeddy2020 warns to pay attention to the possible emergence of seven black swan events. Real Vision founder Raoul Pal advises investors to extend their time horizons, hold quality assets, and avoid investing based on "borrowed conviction." These viewpoints collectively point to a more complex and specialized market environment, requiring participants to shift from "casting a wide net for trends" to "precise in-depth research."
3. Power Shift: KOLs, Liquidity, and New Value Frameworks
The market in 2025 experienced a silent power shift, profoundly affecting the rules of the game in 2026.
1. KOLs: From Disseminators to "Market Judgment Nodes"
The influence of top crypto KOLs has surpassed traditional financial media in speed, trust, and action orientation. They are no longer simple information carriers but serve as key judgment nodes providing users with filtered and processed "opinions" and "conclusions" in an age of information overload. Market pricing increasingly responds quickly to KOL interpretations, forming a new logic where "whoever tells the story clearly first influences pricing." However, this influence is undergoing a brutal internal selection, with "shouting-type" KOLs relying on emotional provocation seeing their lifespans shorten, while "research-type" KOLs providing verifiable, methodologically supported insights are building long-term trust compounding.
2. Liquidity Paradox and Restructuring of Value Assessment Frameworks
The market presents a contradictory liquidity picture: Bitcoin ETFs and other factors bring in massive institutional funds, but most altcoins, aside from Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a few assets, are facing liquidity exhaustion. This is driven by four forces:
● Institutional funds are restricted by compliance, forming a "closed loop" that only flows into top assets.
● Tokens from overvalued projects in 2021 are entering their unlocking period, creating sustained selling pressure (high FDV trap).
● Retail behavior is "polarized," either hoarding Bitcoin/Ethereum or speculating on highly volatile meme coins, while mid-tier altcoins are abandoned.
● Global capital competes among different risk assets, with the crypto market not being the only destination.
In this context, old narrative logics (such as DeFi, GameFi) may fail, and a new value assessment framework must return to essentials:
● Fundamentals: Focus on a project's real income and actual utility, rather than just market capitalization.
● Mechanics: Examine the ability to capture value, specifically whether the income generated by the protocol has a clear path to benefit token holders.
● Trends: Seek opportunities that are "sufficiently new" and "bottom-up," rather than narratives pre-set by institutions.
4. Summary Outlook
Combining the outlooks of institutions and KOLs, the contours of the crypto market in 2026 are gradually becoming clear: it is neither a simple resurgence of a frenzied bull market nor a stagnant pool.
This year, Ethereum, with its ecological foundation in stablecoins, RWAs, and DeFi, is expected to lead in relative performance. The integration of AI and blockchain, prediction markets, and RWAs are tracks that will gain more attention, requiring real utility support. At the same time, market participants must confront the deep structural changes of highly differentiated liquidity, power shifting towards professional KOLs, and the restructuring of value assessment systems.
Ultimately, as the regulatory framework improves (such as the U.S. Clarity Act) and institutional capital deepens, the crypto market is bidding farewell to the wild era and entering a new stage characterized by value discovery and long-term capital. For investors, in-depth industry research, rigorous scrutiny of project fundamentals, and adapting to the new power structure will be more important than chasing short-term trends.
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