Welcome to the Qinglan Crypto Classroom. Today, we will analyze ETH's three cycles, including the news aspect:
- Data Integration and Technical Analysis
Let's take a look at ETH's trends from short to long cycles and connect them.
15-Minute K-Line (Ultra-Short-Term Trend: Weak Fluctuation)
From the last 47 K-lines, ETH surged to $2956 and then quickly dropped, reaching a low of around $2912. Although there was a rebound towards the end, it remains in a low-level fluctuation overall.
MA Moving Averages: MA5 (2930), MA10 (2929), MA20 (2926) are currently starting to converge and gradually flatten, but they are still above the K-line, forming resistance. This indicates a balance of bullish and bearish forces in the short-term market, but there is significant selling pressure above.
MACD Indicator: The MACD's DIF line and DEA line are still below the zero axis, with the DIF line attempting to cross above the DEA line. The MACD histogram has also started to shrink from negative values, even showing green bars. This suggests a potential small rebound in the short term, but the strength needs to be observed.
RSI Indicator: After being oversold near the bottom at 26, the RSI has now risen to around 53, moving out of the oversold zone, providing some space for a short-term rebound.
Key Levels: Short-term resistance is in the $2935-$2938 area, with support at $2912.
1-Hour K-Line (Short-Term Trend: Downward)
The last 47 K-lines show that ETH has retreated from a high of around $2999, experiencing a significant drop, reaching a low of $2888, and then rebounding to around $2932.
MA Moving Averages: MA5 (2929), MA10 (2931), MA20 (2939) are in a bearish arrangement, with short-term moving averages running below long-term moving averages, and the distance is gradually widening. This is a clear signal of a downward trend, with short-term moving averages exerting pressure on the price.
MACD Indicator: The DIF and DEA lines are continuously diverging downwards below the zero axis, with the MACD histogram remaining green and momentum weakening, indicating that bearish forces are waning, and the DIF line shows signs of turning upwards. This is similar to the 15-minute cycle, suggesting a potential rebound in the short term.
RSI Indicator: The RSI has risen from a low of 39 to around 46. Although it is still in a weak zone, it has moved out of the oversold area, indicating signs of market stabilization.
Key Levels: Short-term resistance is at $2938-$2940, with support at $2920 and the previous low of $2888.
4-Hour K-Line (Medium-Term Trend: Downward)
The last 24 K-lines show a clear downward trend for ETH at the medium-term level, dropping from a high of $3077 to a low of $2912, currently fluctuating around $2932.
MA Moving Averages: MA5 (2938), MA10 (2936), MA20 (2961) are in a bearish arrangement, with a downward opening, indicating a typical downward trend.
MACD Indicator: The DIF and DEA lines have continued to decline after a death cross below the zero axis, with the MACD histogram remaining green. Although the recent negative values of the MACD histogram are converging, the overall situation is still under bearish control.
RSI Indicator: The RSI is fluctuating around 43, in a neutral to weak area, with no clear overbought or oversold signals, but the trend is downward.
Key Levels: Medium-term resistance is at $2947, $2960, with strong resistance at the $3000 round number. Support is at $2912 and the more important $2880-$2820 range.
1-Day K-Line (Long-Term Trend: Downward/Consolidation)
The last 47 K-lines show that ETH is currently in a bottom consolidation and pullback phase after experiencing a significant drop, falling from a high of $4253 to a low of $2765, and now rebounding to around $2932.
MA Moving Averages: MA5 (2971), MA10 (2943), MA20 (3038) are also in a bearish arrangement, with mid-term moving averages below long-term moving averages, indicating a downward trend at the daily level. Although MA10 and MA5 show signs of convergence, it will take time to form a golden cross.
MACD Indicator: The DIF and DEA lines are slowly moving upwards after a death cross below the zero axis, with the MACD histogram changing from green to red below the zero axis, and momentum bars continuously shrinking. This is usually a signal of bottom formation or a rebound, but the strength is still not strong enough.
RSI Indicator: The RSI is around 43, having moved out of the previous oversold area, but it has not yet returned to a strong area, indicating insufficient market confidence and difficulty in forming a strong upward trend in the short term.
Key Levels: Resistance above is at $2970, $3000, and a stronger area at $3050-$3080. Support below is at $2880, $2820, and the previous low of $2765.
- News Aspect Combined Analysis
Overall, the news aspect presents a complex situation of "short-term bearish, long-term to be observed," especially for mainstream coins like ETH and BTC.
Bearish Factors:
Macroeconomic Concerns: [News 11] If the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision remains unchanged, BTC is predicted to potentially drop to $70,000, and ETH to $2400. This is undoubtedly a sword of Damocles hanging over the market, as a high-interest environment is unfavorable for risk assets.
Market Capital Outflow: [News 40] There has been a net outflow of funds from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, totaling about $200 million, indicating that institutional investors are taking a wait-and-see or withdrawal attitude before the Christmas holiday, putting short-term pressure on capital.
Bitcoin Weakness Transmission: [News 12, 42, 45] Bitcoin has weak support in the $70,000-$80,000 range, with the RSI breaking below long-term moving averages indicating increased risk of a pullback, and the approaching options expiration date putting pressure on prices from Fibonacci resistance. As the leader of the cryptocurrency market, BTC's weakness will inevitably transmit to ETH.
Market Vulnerability: [News 39, 44] The Binance BTC/USD1 trading pair experienced a flash crash, which, although a liquidity issue for a specific trading pair, also exposed the market's vulnerability during the holiday period.
Whale Cashing Out/Losses: [News 33] Some whales are cashing out ETH at high levels, while [News 29] indicates that some whales are currently holding positions at a loss, both of which increase market panic and suggest potential selling pressure in the short term.
Bullish/Long-Term Potential Factors:
Ethereum's Own Development: [News 32] Ethereum plans to undergo a hard fork upgrade in 2026, doubling gas limits and achieving a leap in performance, which is undoubtedly a significant long-term positive that will significantly enhance its ecosystem's scalability and user experience.
Institutional Interest Shift: [News 21] Bitcoin derivatives trading is cooling down, but Ethereum futures continue to attract capital inflows, indicating that institutional interest in ETH is growing, and the market structure may be changing.
Ecological Diversification: [News 15] Solana and Ethereum are not in a zero-sum game in the tokenization market, and the trend of multi-chain coexistence indicates that ETH's position in areas like RWA (real-world assets) remains solid.
Contrarian Indicator: [News 41] Jim Cramer is bearish on Bitcoin, and combined with his title as a "contrarian indicator," this may be interpreted as bullish by some market participants.
- Comprehensive Judgment and Trading Suggestions
In summary, the current market situation for ETHUSDT is: in the short term, both technical and news aspects show a trend of weak fluctuation to downward, but there is a certain demand for rebound. In the medium to long term, although there are positive long-term catalysts in the fundamentals, macroeconomic pressures and cautious market sentiment remain the main constraints.
Short-Term (15-Minute, 1-Hour) Trend:
Currently in a weak rebound attempt after a decline, with MACD and RSI showing signs of short-term strengthening, but moving averages are still in a bearish arrangement. The rebound space is expected to be limited and may easily fall back after hitting resistance.
Key Support: $2912; if broken, it may test $2888.
Key Resistance: $2938-$2940; a breakout requires increased volume.
Medium-Term (4-Hour) Trend:
A clear downward trend, with all moving averages in a bearish arrangement, and MACD below the zero axis, indicating that bearish forces still dominate. Any rebound may be seen as an opportunity to short.
Key Support: $2880-$2820 range, which is a relatively important support area.
Key Resistance: $2960 and the $3000 round number.
Long-Term (1-Day) Trend:
Currently in a bottom consolidation/pullback phase after a decline. Although the MACD shows red bars, the daily level moving averages are still bearish, and it will take longer and stronger buying to reverse the trend. Long-term positives need time to digest and ferment.
Key Support: $2820, $2765 (previous low).
Key Resistance: $3050-$3080; a breakout here is needed to stabilize and attempt a reversal.
Trading Ideas:
Given the short-term demand for a slight rebound, but the overall trend is weak, our trading strategy should be flexible and cautious.
- Aggressive Traders:
- Short-Term Long Position (Rebound): Can enter lightly when the 15-minute K-line touches support near $2912, and MACD and RSI show a golden cross or bottom divergence, targeting the resistance level of $2938-$2940. Strict stop-loss set below $2900.
- Short-Term Short Position: If it rebounds to $2938-$2940, or even near $2960 (if possible), and momentum weakens with a top divergence signal, consider trying a light short position, targeting $2912-$2888.
- Conservative Traders:
- Mainly Wait and See: The current market is in a weak fluctuation with high uncertainty, especially as the overall pullback risk for BTC is still present. Wait for a clear bottom structure or a breakout of important resistance at the daily level before considering entry.
- Layout Short Position: If ETH rebounds to around $2960 or $3000, and the daily and 4-hour trends remain downward, consider gradually building short positions near resistance, with stop-loss set above $3050, targeting $2880 or even $2765.
- Long-Term Investors:
- Although long-term positives exist, recent market sentiment and macro pressures are significant. If ETH really drops to $2400 or even lower, it would be a good opportunity for long-term positioning. However, now may not be the best time; it is advisable to wait for clearer bottom signals.
Possible Reversal Patterns:
- Short-Term: The 15-minute and 1-hour charts may show W-bottom or head-and-shoulders bottom patterns, but given the heavy pressure above, even if they appear, the rebound height may be limited.
- Medium to Long-Term: If the 4-hour and daily charts can form an effective bottom structure (such as double bottom, triple bottom) in the $2820-$2765 range, accompanied by MACD bottom divergence and strong RSI recovery, a true reversal may occur. However, it still needs time.
Overall, market liquidity is generally low during the Christmas holiday, and with macro uncertainties, we should remain cautious, observe more, act less, and wait for clear signals before taking action. Don't rush!
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