Recently, the global market has shown a subtle balance amid high-level fluctuations. On one hand, expectations of interest rate cuts and marginal weakening of macro data provide some support for risk assets; on the other hand, geopolitical uncertainties have led to a distinct market risk appetite characterized by "upward resistance and heightened sensitivity to pullbacks." Against this backdrop, capital allocation strategies are shifting from a focus on growth to an emphasis on defense and certainty.

The strong performance of gold (up 6.15% in December) confirms this logic, with traditional defensive assets receiving increased capital allocation. Meanwhile, although the stock market has shown index resilience, profound changes are occurring within its internal structure: capital is quietly flowing from high-valuation, highly crowded sectors to value and cyclical sectors with more visible cash flows, forming a rebalancing pattern of "stable index, changing structure."

The cryptocurrency market is inevitably amplified by macro sentiment and capital fluctuations. Currently, the market is undergoing a typical high-level correction and repricing process.

Crypto Spot: Entering the "Rebalancing Phase," Lacking Trend Drivers

Bitcoin experienced a correction after approaching approximately $126,000, currently operating mainly in a high-volatility range of $85,000 to $95,000. This pattern can be seen as a "repricing" and "rebalancing" after the market's upward momentum has weakened. On-chain data shows that selling pressure from long-term holders has marginally eased, but overall incremental buying remains cautious, more characterized by buying on dips rather than actively chasing prices.

The capital situation is a key observation window for short-term sentiment. The capital flow of spot Bitcoin ETFs is increasingly significant for the market: if there is a continued net outflow, it will suppress marginal buying power; only when outflows converge and turn into sustained inflows is it more likely to inject momentum for a trend revival.

Futures and Options: Leverage Cleared, Market Returns to "Healthy Game"

Excessive leverage in the futures market has been significantly cleared. Open interest (OI) has fallen to safer levels, greatly reducing the risk of cascading liquidations. A noteworthy signal is that the basis of BTC forward contracts once turned negative, and driven by hedging positions, the spot-futures price spread has converged to a one-year low, reflecting a cooling of market optimism and an increase in risk management awareness.

The options market reveals signs of gradually repairing sentiment. The implied volatility (IV) center for BTC and ETH options has fallen from high levels, indicating that the market is moving from panic pricing of "sudden shocks" back to a more normalized pricing model. Although the implied volatility skew shows that the short-term market still has some concerns about pullbacks, overall sentiment is improving. Currently, the position structure still favors call options, and a large number of options are set to expire on December 26, making key strike prices important short-term pressure and support points.

Crypto Stocks: Premium Eases, Value Reassessment Underway

The stock performance of crypto-related listed companies also reflects the market's return from frenzy to rationality.

• Digital Asset Trusts (DAT): Their market value to net asset value ratio has fallen to nearly 1x, with the significant premium generated earlier due to "equity packaging" being greatly compressed. Their stock price volatility is amplified by "coin price pullbacks" and "potential dilution expectations."

• Mining and Computing Power Sector: Valuations have shown significant differentiation. Companies relying solely on computing power operations see their valuations more dependent on cost control and capacity expansion efficiency; while companies with quality power and data center resources partially benefit from the market's "repricing" of their infrastructure's potential cash flows in the AI computing power sector.

• Exchanges and Compliance Platforms: As a bridge connecting the traditional and crypto worlds, the scarcity premium of their licenses and compliance channels still exists, but future valuation increases will rely more on the penetration rate of institutional business and the realization of recurring revenue.

Summary and Strategic Outlook

The current crypto market is in a "rebalancing after a high-level correction" phase. Macroeconomic uncertainties suppress risk appetite, and the market lacks clear unilateral trend drivers. The futures market is becoming healthier in terms of leverage, and the options market's volatility is declining, bringing the overall pattern closer to a "healthy stock game."

In this environment, trend traders may need more patience, waiting for clearer signals from the macro or capital fronts. For investors focusing on current market characteristics, the following strategic ideas can be considered:

• Neutral in Fluctuations: Consider products like FCN (Fixed Income Notes) or dual-currency investments aimed at obtaining potential coupon income through selling volatility.

• Bullish on Dips: Consider using discounted Accumulators to gradually build positions during market fluctuations and utilize their Knock-Out (KO) mechanism to control chasing risks.

• Bearish or Seeking Hedging/Reduction: Decumulators or Covered Call strategies can help reduce holdings in batches during volatility or provide downside protection for spot positions.

• Need for Liquidity and Avoiding Liquidation Risks: For investors with financing needs but unwilling to bear the risk of margin calls, non-margin guarantee financing products offer a low-interest and controllable risk option.

The market's return to calm after the noise in the "repricing" process often marks the beginning of a new cycle. Maintaining sharpness in defense and seeking structure in balance may be a better response strategy for the current phase.

The above content is from Daniel Yu, Head of Asset Management, and represents the author's personal views.

Disclaimer: The market has risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may carry significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided herein.

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