The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit to go! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to the vast number of coin friends. Welcome to all coin friends' attention and likes, and reject any market smokescreens!

A couple of days ago, I mentioned support and resistance, which made many friends feel that Lao Cui's judgment method is quite accurate. Many are asking how Lao Cui determined the strong resistance at 90,000 for Bitcoin and 3,100 for Ethereum. To judge these two points, we can look at the distribution of chips. You can find websites that publish some data; many blockchain sites will provide real-time monitoring, where you can see the buying points for spot trading and the long-short distribution of contracts. Secondly, we need to analyze the intentions of the market makers; the inflow and outflow of these large funds are very obvious. The fluctuations of big data cannot escape on-chain data monitoring, unless using the logic of cold wallets. The selling pressure around 90,000 for Bitcoin and 3,100 for Ethereum is very evident. Previously, we could only confirm the pressure position; after identifying the pressure position, everyone just needs to observe whether it can break through. Once it breaks through and stabilizes, it enters the next stage of operational logic, while failure to break through will inevitably lead to a decline. In fact, if you can grasp the pressure and support, you can do well in contracts.

From a personal perspective, pressure and support are the easiest indicators to judge. However, when all indicators are mixed together, it can cause interference between trends. A chaotic punch can kill a master, which is why beginners often profit more by looking at a single indicator. Summarizing recent news, one point worth noting is that Trump stated he would maintain our semiconductor tariffs until 2027. As long as the tariffs remain stable, subsequent measures should not pose too many problems. Of course, we can just listen to what Trump says; we never know when he might change his mind. Tariffs are crucial in influencing the trends in the coin circle; instability in tariffs will create market fluctuations, and it is highly likely to be in the bearish category. The second piece of news is that gold continues to maintain a growth state. The surge in gold is not due to positive news. The underlying factors are more about challenges in the current financial sector; it’s not just us continuously buying gold; almost all countries are starting to lay out their gold purchases.

Looking at the clues, first, sell US dollars and US Treasury bonds, buy gold and bring it back to the country, followed by expanding oil energy reserves, then moving to RMB settlement for Australian iron ore, and further ensuring the cultivation of farmland. All these measures are reflecting some signals, and these signals may not only affect the coin circle. Everyone should prepare themselves mentally; don’t talk about strategic reserves or speculate too much. The future pattern will form a confrontation until a winner emerges. Therefore, returning to our theory, consume in deflationary areas and invest in inflationary areas; this is what will happen in the future. Both inflation and deflation are not normal financial performances, and there is no historical reference for such situations, so we can only view the coin market from a speculative perspective. The ongoing confrontation will promote the use of the coin circle, which is the role of the coin circle, but it will suppress the unit price of coins, as there is a lack of sustainable market investment.

There are many things that cannot be elaborated on, which is very torturous for Lao Cui. I can only say everyone should take a look at the distribution of miners and mining farms; some people have returned to the coin circle. We can only distinguish by ideology; the domestic data is not easy to estimate. Overall, everyone should not worry too much. However, regarding the recent data flow, since two days ago, Lao Cui has been paying close attention. Many cold wallet coins have been flowing into first-tier platforms. Excluding users who are regularly staking, most users may be primarily focused on exiting, which could likely form a high-pressure downward state in the short term. Therefore, in the short term, unless there is significant positive news, it will continue to decline. As for the estimation of new lows, in Lao Cui's understanding, there are no new lows expected. If everyone only looks at the technical aspects, it can currently be identified that we have entered a short-term bear market.

Where does the view that Bitcoin is currently in a bull market come from? Comparing with previous data, since 2023, Bitcoin has experienced three major waves of spot demand. However, since early October 2025, demand growth has fallen below long-term trend levels. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the holdings of US spot Bitcoin ETFs decreased by about 24,000 BTC, and the addresses holding 100-1,000 BTC have grown below trend levels. The price of Bitcoin has fallen below the 365-day moving average, which is often seen as the dividing line for a bull market. These few sentences represent the most straightforward real data, so a strong stimulus is needed for a potential reversal in the short-term downward range. This decline is not just a matter for a single coin; all coins have entered a downward channel. If we only use Bitcoin as a reference indicator, Bitcoin's trend is still in a high pullback phase. Since Bitcoin hit the 126,000 mark, only BNB has made a new high, while other coins may have long entered a state of fatigue.

Then there is what everyone is worried about: the decline at the beginning of the year. Many friends looking at the coin market will always bring in cyclical views. Comparing with last year's trend, it was a decline at the beginning of the year, sideways in the middle of the year, and a surge at the end of the year. In the past two years, Lao Cui did not realize this issue, or rather, Lao Cui is not good at finding patterns, but I often guessed the market correctly. This cyclical phenomenon is most commonly applied in the Bitcoin halving cycle, but everyone needs to remember that the halving cycle belongs to positive news on the news front. This halving increases the underlying cost, and currently, the average cost of Bitcoin mining still maintains around 20,000, with data having upward potential. However, at the current position, compared to the cost price, there is indeed a lot of bubble, which is also the theoretical basis given by most analysts for a drop to 60,000. But at the beginning of the year, there was the biggest positive news for the entire coin circle, which is interest rate cuts. There is a high possibility of a wave of interest rate cuts at the beginning of 2026, and at the same time, the first half of 2026 will be in a period of expanding the balance sheet. While injecting liquidity, will the coin circle still decline?

Lao Cui summarizes: To put it bluntly, this decline has somewhat exceeded Lao Cui's previous expectations. As of now, Lao Cui only regards this decline as a phenomenon of clearing bubbles. Before the December dot plot, Lao Cui believed there would be a decline at the beginning of the year, especially with the final dot plot showing that there might not be a chance for a downward movement in the first half of next year, which is why this decline has continued. The opening of the downward channel at the end of this year may be to accumulate capital for next year's rally, which also responds to why Lao Cui always feels that new lows are hard to appear. Lao Cui believes that while Trump is in office, it is difficult for the coin circle to experience a bear market phase, regardless of Trump's personal layout, his indirect holdings in coin circle platforms, and his son’s direct involvement in the coin circle. With such a significant risk, Lao Cui does not believe it is merely for benefits during his term. At the same time, the coin circle can alleviate the core issue of inflation in the US. During his term, what Lao Cui saw was the return of dollars, especially from Japan, South Korea, Europe, and between Russia and Ukraine, where their profits are substantial. It is precisely because of the global accumulation that there will be a cycle of money printing and liquidity in 2026. As long as these two are achieved in 2026, the channel function of the coin circle will definitely show its value, and what follows will be another round of increases in coin prices. Overall, Lao Cui is bullish on 2026 and believes it is a good time to position oneself. If anyone has questions about entry points or other issues, feel free to ask Lao Cui directly via private message, rather than leaving comments. Due to article limitations, many things cannot be elaborated on.

Original creation by WeChat public account: Lao Cui Talks About Coins. For assistance, please contact directly.

Lao Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess; a master can see five, seven, or even ten moves ahead, while a novice can only see two or three moves. The master considers the overall situation and strategizes for the big picture, not focusing on individual pieces or territories, aiming for the ultimate victory. The novice, on the other hand, fights for every inch, frequently switching between long and short positions, only seeking short-term gains, and often finds themselves trapped.

This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this carries risks!

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