In the prediction market, the probability of Bitcoin dropping below $80,000 in the remaining days of December is only 16%. Traders are placing their bets with real money, anchoring Bitcoin's year-end price in the $90,000 range.
On Christmas Eve, data from the prediction market platform Polymarket shows that traders believe the probability of Bitcoin dropping below $80,000 in December is just 16%, while the probability of it falling below $75,000 is even lower at 5%.
At the same time, the probability of Bitcoin breaking the $100,000 mark before the end of the year is also only 5%. These numbers paint a clear picture of the market: in the few remaining days of 2025, Bitcoin is most likely to fluctuate within the current price range.
1. Market Expectations
● The latest data from Polymarket reflects traders' collective judgment on Bitcoin's year-end price. According to data from December 24, the market probability of "Bitcoin dropping below $80,000 in December" is 16%, and the probability of "dropping below $75,000" is 5%.
● Meanwhile, the probability of "Bitcoin rising back to $100,000 before the end of 2025" is also only 5%. On December 23, this probability was 8%, while the probability of "rising back to $95,000" was 25%.
● Currently, Bitcoin's price hovers around $90,000, having retreated about 15%-20% from the historical high of $108,000 reached in early December.
2. Shift in Sentiment
● Market sentiment has undergone a significant change from extreme optimism to cautious observation. In November, when Bitcoin first broke $100,000, the probability of "returning to $100,000 before the end of the year" on Polymarket peaked at over 70%.
● As prices corrected and time elapsed, this probability continued to decline to single digits. By December 11, investors on the Kalshi platform estimated the probability of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 before December 31 to be about 34%, while Polymarket's corresponding probability was 29%.
In just two weeks, market expectations for breaking $100,000 plummeted from nearly one-third to 5%, reflecting a significant cooling of traders' expectations for short-term sharp increases.
3. Key Support
● Despite the cautious market sentiment, most traders still believe that the $80,000 level will be strongly defended. The 16% probability of a drop means that over 80% of the funds are betting that Bitcoin can hold this key price level.
● Analysts point out that Bitcoin currently faces resistance at $94,000, with the potential to break through to the $98,000 liquidity area through an ascending triangle pattern. A breakthrough and stabilization above $94,000 should push the price towards the triangle's measured target of about $108,000.
● Factors supporting the current price center include ongoing institutional participation. Polymarket traders believe that MicroStrategy's regular purchases this week are highly probable, with a 65% chance of buying over 1,000 Bitcoins.
4. Risk Factors
● The cautious market sentiment is under multiple pressures. The time window is extremely narrow, with only one week left until the end of the year, and Bitcoin needs to rise over 11% to reach $100,000, while historical data shows that the probability of a year-end surge is low.
● Macroeconomic uncertainty is also increasing. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path is unclear, and expectations for rate cuts in 2026 have been revised downwards, weakening the appeal of interest-free assets like Bitcoin. Institutional investor behavior also affects the market.
● The daily average rate of corporate Bitcoin purchases continues to decline, indicating that institutional investors may be entering a state of fatigue. Geopolitical and regulatory risks remain, which also suppresses speculative funds' willingness to chase higher prices.
5. Short-term Outlook
● Analysts believe that Bitcoin is likely to maintain a fluctuating pattern in the short term, with $90,000 becoming a key center. An upward breakthrough requires strong catalysts, such as dovish signals from the Federal Reserve or large institutional purchases; downward risks come from year-end selling pressure and amplified volatility due to thin liquidity.
● Cryptocurrency trader Daan Crypto Trades points out that Bitcoin's price may only rise to "retest the previous support area of about $98,000," adding, "This is also a location where a lot of liquidity is concentrated."
● Most institutions believe that the probability of Bitcoin returning to $100,000 in the first half of 2026 is higher, making it difficult to sprint to this level in the last week of the year.
6. Long-term Perspective
● Despite the unclear short-term outlook, analysts maintain a constructive view on Bitcoin's long-term trajectory. Jurrien Timmer, head of global macro at Fidelity, points out that over the 145-week period from 2022 to 2025, Bitcoin has achieved a 105% annual compound growth rate, closely aligning with long-term regression models.
● Timmer believes that while Bitcoin may still experience a deeper correction in 2026, with prices potentially dropping to the $65,000 to $75,000 range, he emphasizes that these areas have historically represented strong buying opportunity zones.
● Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, believes that the traditional four-year halving cycle is no longer the dominant factor in Bitcoin's price behavior. The extended debt refinancing cycle and evolving liquidity dynamics suggest that the current market structure may persist until 2026.
Bitcoin reaching a price level of $300,000 in 2029.
As the market shifts its focus from the frenzied pursuit of the $100,000 historical high to cautiously defending the $80,000 key line of defense, the picture painted by traders on Polymarket with their funds is particularly clear. The current 16% probability of a drop is less about absolute confidence in Bitcoin's strength and more about the market's resistance to extreme volatility during the thin liquidity period at year-end.
With only a few trading days left in 2025, Bitcoin hangs like a coin suspended at $90,000, having lost the momentum to sprint while failing to find reasons to drop. Analyst Jurrien Timmer points out that Bitcoin has achieved a 105% annual compound growth rate, closely aligning with long-term regression models.
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