In the same time window, a publicly listed company was exposed for approving a proposal to raise funds to purchase Bitcoin through a temporary shareholders' meeting, a leading exchange disclosed a year-long change in its reserve structure, and the Bitcoin derivatives market faced options expiration amounting to as much as $23.6 billion according to a single source. These three seemingly disparate events point to the same question: who is reshaping the supply structure and pricing power of Bitcoin, with different paths and costs.
As of the current moment, the market is engaged in a game around Metaplanet's increased holding plan, Huobi HTX's reserve data, and the $23.6 billion options expiration scale. The core change is not the price itself, but the structural reorganization of the asset side, infrastructure side, and derivatives side.
Recently, according to information disclosed from a single source, the Japanese listed company Metaplanet approved the proposal to "raise funds to purchase Bitcoin" at its temporary shareholders' meeting. Strategic Director Dylan LeClair stated that the company plans to include Bitcoin as one of its core assets on the balance sheet and aims to hold 210,000 Bitcoins by the end of 2027 (this target also comes from a single source and requires further verification through official company documents). Meanwhile, in the reserve data released by Huobi HTX for 2025, the USDT asset scale grew from approximately 695 million at the beginning of the year to about 1.765 billion by the end of the year, an increase of about 150%, resulting in a 2.06% market share increase among mainstream CEXs; the official also emphasized that its proof of reserves (PoR) based on the Merkle tree has shown an overall reserve rate of over 100% for 38 consecutive months. On the derivatives side, according to a single source statistic, the nominal scale of Bitcoin options expiration in this cycle reached approximately $23.6 billion, with the maximum pain point calculated to be around $96,000.
Within this data framework, Metaplanet's corporate-level hoarding target, Huobi HTX's USDT reserves and PoR records, as well as the open interest and maximum pain structure of options, form a three-layer analytical model of "asset side - infrastructure side - derivatives side" to examine the current supply structure and risk transmission path of the Bitcoin market.
Core of the Events
According to a single source, around December 24, East 8 Time, Metaplanet approved the proposal to "raise funds to purchase Bitcoin" at its temporary shareholders' meeting. Strategic Director Dylan LeClair publicly stated that the company views Bitcoin as a long-term strategic asset and has set a target to hold 210,000 Bitcoins by the end of 2027. This information is currently still mainly based on a single source's public statement and requires further cross-verification through company announcements or regulatory documents.
This means that at least on a narrative level, Metaplanet is attempting to send a long-term hoarding signal to the market along the path of "making Bitcoin a core asset on the balance sheet," challenging the traditional corporate asset allocation paradigm.
A parallel clue comes from the infrastructure side of the exchange. In the latest reserve data disclosed by Huobi HTX, the USDT asset increased from approximately 695 million at the beginning of the year to about 1.765 billion by the end of the year, an increase of about 150%; according to the same data metric, its market share increased by 2.06% throughout the year, ranking among the top in mainstream centralized exchanges. The official also emphasized that the platform's proof of reserves (PoR) has shown an overall reserve rate of over 100% for 38 consecutive months, and the Bitcoin user holding scale has remained relatively stable throughout the year, without experiencing violent fluctuations that would synchronize with the increase in USDT reserves. This comparison provides us with an observation dimension: more "offshore funds" are flowing into the exchange after being tokenized, but have not been proportionally converted into new Bitcoin spot positions.
On the derivatives side, according to a single source options data provider's calculations, the nominal scale of Bitcoin options expiration in this cycle is approximately $23.6 billion, constituting one of the largest single expiration events in history; the same source gives the maximum pain price level at around $96,000, reflecting that near this price level, the time value loss of both long and short open contracts is most concentrated. The distance between this price and the spot market, combined with corporate-level hoarding and changes in exchange reserve structures, complicates the game of short-term volatility and medium to long-term pricing power.
In the data framework, the misalignment of corporate hoarding targets, exchange USDT reserve expansion, and the maximum pain price level of options forms a triangular tension between spot chips, on-exchange margin, and forward expectations.
Incentive Analysis
From the news perspective, Metaplanet's increased holding plan disclosed by a single source is another case of a company positioning Bitcoin as a "long-term core asset" following some U.S. listed companies incorporating Bitcoin into their financial reports. The difference is that this time the market's focus is more on the "fundraising for coin purchase" financial engineering design of the company, rather than simply using its own cash flow to allocate assets. This approach amplifies the penetration effect of Bitcoin price fluctuations on the company's capital structure and significantly increases shareholders' and creditors' sensitivity to risk-reward distribution.
If a company raises funds to purchase a high-volatility asset like Bitcoin through debt or equity financing, the price changes of Bitcoin will no longer just be a change in the asset side's market value, but will be magnified into a composite issue of capital costs, equity dilution, and financial leverage.
The key changes on the Huobi HTX side are more reflected in the funding aspect. The USDT reserves increased from 695 million to 1.765 billion, with an increase of about 150% corresponding to a significant expansion of "dollar-denominated liquidity" available for trading and margin use. As a result, this growth is highly correlated with its 2.06% increase in market share throughout the year, indicating that more funds are choosing to complete transactions and custody on this platform; on the other hand, since the BTC user holding scale remained relatively stable throughout the year, it indicates that the new USDT is more used for arbitrage, contract margins, and trading of other currencies, rather than solely for absorbing Bitcoin spot.
On the sentiment side, maintaining a PoR reserve rate of over 100% for 38 consecutive months provides a long-term traceable quantitative indicator for the exchange's own credit. After experiencing multiple rounds of platform risk events, being able to continuously demonstrate "on-chain verifiable + over 100% coverage" reserve records has itself become a "safety preference signal" that attracts fund migration, even if this signal cannot cover all credit and operational risks.
The $23.6 billion expiration scale in the options market structurally amplifies short-term volatility expectations. A large number of contracts expire on concentrated dates, combined with the maximum pain point being near $96,000, raises higher requirements for market makers' and institutions' Delta and Gamma hedging strategies; through buying and selling futures and spot to hedge positions between spot and perpetual contracts, this will further affect funding rates, depth, and market resilience.
Deep Logic
Placing the above incentives in a larger macro and cyclical context reveals three structural changes worth noting.
First, on the asset side, the "targeted hoarding" of Bitcoin by corporate entities like Metaplanet is reinforcing the narrative of Bitcoin as a "strategic reserve asset." The target of 210,000 Bitcoins (from a single source) is approximately a visibly significant proportion of the current total circulating supply (this is only a magnitude comparison); if more companies adopt a similar model, it will further increase the proportion of long-term locked chips. As more chips are held by entities that do not base their decisions on short-term prices, the proportion of "floating chips" in the spot market will passively decrease, making the marginal pricing of the market more inclined towards derivatives and short-term high-leverage funds.
Second, on the infrastructure side, the combination of Huobi HTX's USDT reserve growth and stable BTC user holdings reveals a typical phenomenon: funds prefer to retain "dollar-denominated flexibility" rather than immediately converting into long-term positions in a single asset. For exchanges, attracting USDT means strengthening their position in liquidity competition, but it also means continuous investment in compliance, asset isolation, risk management, and transparency; otherwise, the speed of "reflexive withdrawal" of these funds during risk events will be faster.
Third, on the derivatives side, the $23.6 billion options expiration and the structure of the maximum pain price at $96,000 indicate that on-exchange funds' expectations for Bitcoin prices are more gamed through volatility and time value rather than simple directional bets. This structure is likely to form a feedback loop: corporate hoarding reduces floating chips in the spot market → derivatives have a greater impact on price discovery → market makers and institutions hedge through options and futures → inversely affect the depth and volatility of the spot and perpetual markets.
In this feedback chain, corporate hoarding, CEX reserve expansion, and options structure are listed as three major variables affecting price elasticity; any drastic change at one end may transmit through liquidity and hedging demand to the other two ends.
Long and Short Game
From the long perspective, Metaplanet's corporate holding plan is seen as another signal of long-term supply contraction for Bitcoin. Supporters believe that if the target scale of 210,000 Bitcoins continues to advance, it will further reduce the tradable chips in the secondary market, equivalent to adding a layer of "corporate halving effect" outside of the halving cycle. Coupled with Huobi HTX's 150% growth in USDT reserves and a 2.06% increase in market share, the bulls interpret this as "offshore funds continuously entering the market in the form of USDT, while the PoR maintaining over 100% for 38 consecutive months provides a confidence basis for these funds," thus constructing a medium to long-term bullish narrative of "funds entering + chips locking."
The core argument of the bulls is: corporate hoarding reduces the circulating supply, the exchange's verifiable reserves enhance trust in fund custody, and the high-scale expiration in the options market provides counterparties willing to pay for volatility, allowing for an upward repricing of long-term risk premiums.
The short perspective, however, focuses more on leverage and concentration risks. First, Metaplanet's holding plan introduces uncertainty in financing supported by high-volatility assets; if prices undergo a significant correction, it may amplify effects on its balance sheet and shareholder equity. Second, although Huobi HTX provides a long-term PoR record, PoR itself can only prove the correspondence between on-chain assets and user liabilities, and cannot fully cover off-exchange exposures, legal risks, and operational risks; thus, funds may still concentrate outflow during risk preference shifts, creating short-term liquidity pressure. Finally, the $23.6 billion options expiration scale means that a large number of short-term leveraged positions need to be repriced or rolled over as they approach expiration; if spot and derivatives prices deviate significantly in critical ranges, it may trigger a chain reaction of forced liquidations and hedging sell pressure.
From a radiation effect perspective, if corporate hoarding behavior gains recognition in the capital market, it may attract more listed companies, mining enterprises, and even some traditional institutions to explore similar paths, enhancing the entire market's recognition of Bitcoin's "asset role"; conversely, if a large entity experiences financial pressure during a price correction, it may exacerbate regulatory and market scrutiny of the "corporate holding of high-volatility assets" model. Similarly, if the PoR practices of exchanges form a competition within the industry, it will pressure platforms that do not provide or cannot sustainably provide transparent reserve proofs, leading to further concentration of funds towards the leading players.
The real focus of the long and short game is not on "how high Bitcoin will rise," but on: who can maintain the sustainability of financing, reserves, and risk management for a longer time, thus gaining the power of discourse in the next round of volatility.
Outlook and Structural Observation Framework
In the short term, market participants need to pay close attention to marginal changes in three dimensions: first, whether Metaplanet will further clarify its holding arrangements and financing structure through regulatory disclosure channels; second, the continuity of Huobi HTX's USDT reserves and BTC holdings in PoR data, especially whether the reserve rate and asset structure remain stable during significant market fluctuations; third, the interlinked changes in implied volatility of options, funding rates of perpetual contracts, and spot depth around the expiration of the $23.6 billion options.
Under the premise of high uncertainty in the pricing path, a more actionable approach is to establish a "structural monitoring checklist": focus on the impact of corporate fundraising hoarding on the floating supply in the spot market, monitor changes in the reserve structure of exchanges' USDT and BTC, and pay attention to the migration of open interest and maximum pain points in options with market fluctuations.
In the medium to long term, if corporate hoarding of Bitcoin becomes an asset allocation option for more listed companies and large institutions, the "liquidity layering" characteristic of Bitcoin will become more pronounced: one layer consists of "strategic reserve chips" that hardly participate in short-term trading, the second layer consists of "trading chips" that circulate frequently between CEXs and institutions, and the third layer consists of leveraged exposures expressed through options, futures, and structured products. Under this structure, the research focus will shift from "where will the price go" to "which layer of liquidity is dominating marginal transactions," which requires a more nuanced reading of corporate financial reports, exchange PoR data, and derivatives position structures, rather than merely fixating on a single price curve.
For investors and researchers, a more robust usage approach is to view Metaplanet and similar companies as samples for observing the "corporate demand curve," consider platforms like Huobi HTX with long-term online PoR as a barometer of "funding risk appetite," and regard data such as open interest and maximum pain points in options as a quantitative scale for short-term "volatility expectations." Within this framework, the three types of data collectively form a multidimensional coordinate system, where individual or institutional position decisions seek to find a matching position according to their own risk tolerance within this coordinate system.
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