Judgment on bull and bear markets has shown that there is not much divergence in the current market; more and more people are starting to believe that we have entered a bear market. However, from the perspective of long-term holders' sentiment and panic indicators, we are still in the green zone (belief – doubt), and "doubt" itself corresponds to the mainstream attitude of the current market.

From more detailed data, there has indeed been a brief entry into the yellow zone (optimism – anxiety) recently. If prices continue to decline, it is expected that sentiment will further weaken. But at least from the behavior of long-term holders, they have not shown the typical systemic withdrawal or panic selling seen in bear markets.

At the same time, we also see that the exchange's $BTC inventory is still decreasing, indicating that the chips willing to be sold are diminishing, and more BTC is being transferred to long-term holding status, with high-net-worth funds continuing to accumulate. Many people may ask, since buying behavior continues, why is the price still falling? The reason is that the current buying is more passive and allocation-based; it changes the supply structure rather than the short-term price.

The decline in exchange reserves itself is a long-term, structural signal, indicating that future supply shocks are weakening. However, short-term prices are still mainly dominated by the macro environment, leveraged funds, liquidity, and sentiment. In simple terms, the decrease in exchange inventory means that the willingness to sell is lowering, while more and more investors are choosing to exit short-term speculation, but this does not mean that intraday trading's impact on prices is weakening.

From the turnover rate data, there is still a significant amount of intraday trading behavior in the market, and prices are mainly determined by this portion of short-term funds repeatedly speculating, while long-term funds have gradually exited the pricing power. This is also an important reason why the market liquidity seems to exist at this stage, but actual effective liquidity continues to decline.

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