Recently, a significant warning in the crypto market has struck a chord with many investors. Jocy Lin, founding partner of IOSG Ventures, voiced on social media that 2025 could become the "worst year" for the crypto industry. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin (BTC) may reach a turning point of $120,000 to $150,000 in the second quarter of 2026. This prediction not only brings a new shock to market confidence but also sparks widespread discussion and reflection.
LTH Selling Pressure
Jocy Lin noted a clear tension between the historical and current selling of long-term holders (LTH). From March 2024 to November 2025, LTH sold a total of approximately 1.4 million BTC, equivalent to $12.117 billion, a scale that is uncommon in the history of the crypto market.
● Three Waves of Selling: The selling phenomenon presents a compressive characteristic, divided into three waves:
- The first wave began at the end of 2023 to early 2024, during the ETF approval period, when BTC price surged from $25,000 to $73,000.
- The second wave struck at the end of 2024, coinciding with the hot topic of Trump's election, as BTC quickly soared to $100,000.
- The third wave occurred in 2025, as BTC lingered above $100,000 for an extended period, creating an unprecedented market pattern.
● Sideways Movement: It is noteworthy that over the past year, BTC prices have long been stagnant at high points, a phenomenon without historical precedent, leading to a blurred market outlook for future trends.
CEX Net Outflow Warning
On the other hand, the recent net outflow data from CEX (centralized exchanges) cannot be ignored, indicating that market liquidity is under pressure.
● Net Outflow Data: In the past 24 hours, the net outflow from CEX reached 2,949.67 BTC, reflecting the unease of retail and institutional investors regarding market prospects. This trend may exacerbate market adjustments in the short term, distancing risk-averse investors.
● Self-Custody and DeFi Trends: The net outflow from CEX further reflects a potential shift of funds towards self-custody or DeFi (decentralized finance), as investors increasingly prefer to control their assets and seek better returns through decentralized means.
Potential Impact of Indiana Bill
Meanwhile, Indiana State Representative Kyle Pierce recently proposed a crypto bill aimed at promoting the inclusion of Bitcoin in pension plans while protecting crypto payment rights. This bill seeks to foster a fairer market environment, not limited to mainstream assets, allowing institutional investors and miners to gain stronger protections.
● Core of the Bill: The bill does not set a market cap threshold, intending to benefit more crypto assets, which may, to some extent, encourage the return of institutional investors and promote healthy market development.
Community Sentiment and Market Response
The community's reaction to Jocy's prediction shows polarized emotions, with many retail investors still chasing the optimistic side of the market under the influence of KOLs.
● Optimistic BTC Price Prediction: Although most express concerns about short-term selling, there is also a surge of hope within the community that BTC could reach $120,000 to $150,000 by 2026, undoubtedly bringing expectations and hope to retail and long-term holders.
● Market Dynamics Clash: Discussions about Bitcoin within the community are fervent, with FOMO (fear of missing out) emotions escalating, leading to intense competition and sharing of market strategies among retail investors. Amidst the grand situation, hidden concerns persist. Despite the overall positive sentiment, the fund movements in CEX and the selling pressure from LTH warn that the market may face deeper adjustments.
Future Outlook and Opportunities
In the turbulent year of 2025, the future of the crypto market remains uncertain. Market participants need to approach the upcoming challenges and opportunities with greater caution.
● Focus on Key Levels: In the short term, the market needs to closely monitor the gains and losses of key support and resistance zones, and retail investors should remain rational and cautious in their participation during this volatility.
● Seizing Opportunities: Perhaps the current panic provides a rare opportunity for forward-looking investors to position themselves. Just as the market's dynamics change, the future of the industry will be shaped by those who are adept at seizing opportunities.
Currently, the crypto market faces countless challenges, but within each fluctuation, opportunities and risks coexist, waiting for insightful and patient investors to explore.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
