Author: Deng Tong, Golden Finance
As 2025 draws to a close, Golden Finance launches the "Looking Back at 2025" series of articles to review the progress of the cryptocurrency industry throughout the year, hoping that the industry will emerge from the winter and shine brightly in the new year.
In 2025, the cryptocurrency market once experienced a glorious peak, reaching an all-time high, before returning to a more subdued state, entering a phase of volatility and consolidation. This article reviews the performance of the cryptocurrency market this year.
BTC Price Trend in 2025
ETH Price Trend in 2025
I. January-February: Easing Signals + Trump's Return to the White House Boost BTC to $100,000
On January 1, 2025, the price of BTC was reported at $93,507.88, and subsequently, the price gradually increased, hovering above $100,000 by early February. The year began with a promising market, and the entire industry was in high spirits, with investors generally holding a bullish outlook for the cryptocurrency market throughout the year.
The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in its meetings in January and February but signaled a "cautious wait-and-see, easing is expected" approach, prompting the market to position itself for liquidity benefits. From late January to early February, both meetings kept the federal funds rate target range stable at 4.25% to 4.5%. From a policy perspective, the January meeting statement removed the previous wording about "progress in bringing inflation back to the 2% target" and added a focus on "re-inflation risks." Fed Chairman Powell clearly stated that they would consider lowering interest rates only when "inflation shows real progress or the labor market shows signs of weakness," but emphasized that "the threshold for reversing rate hikes is extremely high," ruling out the possibility of resuming rate hikes. The minutes from the February meeting further revealed that officials unanimously believed the current restrictive monetary policy allows time to assess the economy, while also expressing concerns that Trump's tariff policies could raise inflation. However, there was a general consensus that "rate cuts in 2025 remain a major direction," with institutions like Goldman Sachs and Barclays predicting two 25 basis point cuts within the year.
Additionally, former President Trump returned to the White House on January 20, becoming the first "crypto president" in U.S. history, resonating with the Fed's easing expectations and acting as a catalyst for the rise in the cryptocurrency market.
II. March-April: Tariff Threats + Slowing Fed Easing Rhythm Lead to BTC Correction
Since Trump's return to the White House, the market has been digesting the expectation of his aggressive tariff policies.
At the end of February, Trump announced that the tariffs originally planned for Canada and Mexico would take effect as scheduled next month after a delay—giving the two countries additional time to address border security issues, with tariffs officially set to take effect after March 4.
The U.S. formally advanced the expectation of imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico, prompting the market to reassess the global trade environment. The anticipation of tariffs taking effect on March 4 raised concerns about global trade friction, leading to a flight to safety as funds moved away from risk assets, favoring the dollar and cash-like assets in the short term.
On March 23, after the Fed's meeting, the Fed maintained interest rates but raised inflation expectations, signaling that "the pace of easing may slow," breaking the market's previous optimistic expectations for rapid rate cuts. Under the weight of multiple negative factors, the cryptocurrency market experienced a short-term sell-off.
III. May-October: Favorable Policies + Resumption of Rate Cuts Propel BTC to New Double Peaks
The U.S. regulatory policies on cryptocurrency and the rate cuts indeed ushered in a "crypto summer" for the market. As a result, BTC prices surged, reaching an all-time high of $123,561 on August 14, and again hitting a new high of $124,774 on October 7.
From July 14-18, the U.S. "Crypto Week" kicked off, with three major cryptocurrency regulatory bills being enacted.
On June 17, the U.S. Senate passed the "Guidance and Establishment of a National Stablecoin Innovation Act" (the "GENIUS Act"), advancing the federal government's regulatory efforts on stablecoins and pressuring the House of Representatives to plan the next phase of national digital asset regulatory efforts. The bill was signed into law by Trump on July 18, marking the first formal establishment of a regulatory framework for digital stablecoins in the U.S.
On July 17, the House passed the "Anti-CBDC Surveillance National Act" with a vote of 219 to 210.
On June 23, the House Financial Services Committee and Agriculture Committee submitted the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" (the "CLARITY Act"), which defined digital commodities as digital assets "intrinsically linked" to the use of blockchain. This was also passed by the House on July 17.
On September 18, the Fed announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate to 4%-4.25%, with expectations of liquidity easing returning; simultaneously, several central banks around the world began to include small amounts of BTC in their foreign exchange reserve diversification, with the Dutch central bank disclosing holdings of BTC assets worth $1.5 billion, boosting market confidence.
On October 1, the U.S. federal government entered a 43-day "shutdown" due to depleted funds, raising concerns among investors about economic uncertainty and increasing demand for safe-haven assets. BTC became a favored asset among large institutions and retail investors, leading to another surge to an all-time high on October 7. Although the momentum weakened afterward, BTC prices generally remained above $110,000 in October.
Additionally, the Circle IPO on June 5, the Hong Kong "Stablecoin Regulation Draft" effective August 1, the Trump family's WLFI transaction on September 1, and various companies announcing crypto reserves also served as catalysts for the market's upward movement.
While the market was on the rise, underlying crises were also present. After reaching over $120,000 in October, BTC began to slowly decline, sparking widespread discussions about whether the market had entered a bear phase in the last two months of the year.
IV. November-December: Concerns About Future Economy Weaken BTC's Upward Momentum
On November 1, BTC was priced at $109,574, and then entered a downward trend. On November 23, BTC recorded a low of $84,682, down 22.71% from the beginning of the month. Although it oscillated above $90,000 for most of the time afterward, the upward trend was weak, leading to various speculations within the industry.
The U.S. government shutdown resulted in the absence of key economic data, raising concerns about the economic fundamentals and future interest rate trends, negatively impacting the performance of risk assets.
Moreover, despite prior expectations that the Fed would continue to cut rates, the Fed issued cautious signals before the rate cuts took effect, leading to divergent market expectations for future liquidity. On December 10, the Fed conducted its third rate cut of the year, but the market interpreted it as a "recessionary rate cut" in response to economic weakness, exacerbating pessimistic expectations. Investors began to reassess macro variables such as global interest rate paths and fiscal health, leaning towards more conservative asset allocations amid uncertainty.
As the cryptocurrency market continued to struggle, many DAT companies faced difficulties, and the increase in liquidations due to drastic market changes further pushed the market down.
Currently, the market is anticipating a "Christmas rally," which may be the "hope of the entire village" this year.
Conclusion
The curtain on 2025 opened with an almost "certain" optimistic sentiment, and Trump's ascension filled the industry with expectations. After experiencing tariff threats and a slowdown in the Fed's easing rhythm, the market erupted again after a period of dormancy: favorable policies, resumption of rate cuts, IPOs of crypto companies like Circle, hype around Trump family projects, and a surge of DAT companies all acted as boosters for BTC's two breakthroughs above $120,000. However, influenced by macroeconomic expectations, BTC struggled to escape a phase of volatility and consolidation by the end of the year.
Looking at the overall trend of the cryptocurrency market throughout the year, the correlation between BTC and traditional financial markets significantly increased, and the improvement of the regulatory framework along with the Fed's policy rhythm may continue to be key variables affecting BTC price trends in 2026.
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