Master Discusses Hot Topics:

Still thinking about whether interest rate cuts are good news, folks? If it were really good news, MSTR wouldn't have collapsed directly at the opening on Monday. A low opening bearish candle, no struggle throughout the day, closing at -8.14%.

This is clearly telling you that the story is hard to sell now. What's even more disgusting is that the structure MicroStrategy is currently following is almost identical to the top before the last big bull market, making it impossible for you to deny it.

While Bitcoin can still rely on liquidity to push for a new high, MSTR cannot; it will only give you lower highs. Each high is lower than the last, and the trend is getting weaker.

Retracing more than 70% from the historical peak is no longer a normal correction; it is a denial at the trend level. If you still treat it as a leverage bull market amplifier, that’s not faith; that’s just being delusional.

So now MicroStrategy is desperately buying coins, is it really because they are extremely optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects? Don’t be too naive. If they don’t buy, the stock has no narrative. If they stop, the market's first reaction will definitely be whether this guy is preparing to sell coins.

The logic is that simple; when QT stops, everyone immediately fantasizes about QE. The current crazy buying looks more like a life extension for the stock price rather than a layout for the next bull market.

Back to the market, as for breaking the four-year bull-bear cycle, I just want to say to watch less mindless KOL analysis. The cycle is not a slogan; it is an objective result at the monthly level. Since mid-October, the trend has clearly entered a bear market.

The entire round of the Bitcoin rally from the 15.6K rebound in 2022 has ended; it is not a halftime break. A bear market does not mean daily crashes; rather, each rebound lowers your cognitive ceiling. Once this big trend is formed, it cannot be reversed by interest rate cuts or not.

Entering a bear market does not mean it can't rise; on the contrary, rebounds in a bear market are the fiercest and most likely to deceive people into getting on board. Interest rate cuts and liquidity expectations only serve to create a few decent rebounds in a bear market, making you mistakenly believe the bull has returned, and then they hit you hard again.

So before next weekend, the probability of hitting this month's lowest point is very high. It may even be a new low after the peak at 126.2K, whether it’s 78.8K or 74.6K.

The nature of this round of bottom fishing is no different from the 88.8K and 80.6K in November; both are phase bottoms in a bear market, not the ultimate answer. But if you know how to play, this segment can last a month. Whether that’s enough depends on your skills.

For me, the preferred scenario is: first, a thorough hunt down to the previous low of 80.6K on November 21, clearing out the remaining liquidity below all at once, washing out all the players still dreaming.

This kind of clearing combined with a rebound is the healthy bottoming structure. If it breaks below 80.6K without clearing and without volume, it indicates that there are even more disgusting things waiting below.

Master Looks at Trends:

From a technical perspective, the key upward trend line was effectively broken yesterday. This step is crucial, indicating that the previous rebound logic has basically failed.

Moreover, the moving averages have turned into a bearish reverse arrangement, with prices being pressed below the moving averages, forming a clear converging pressure zone above. In simple terms, every time there’s a rebound, someone sells, and every time you look up, you get pushed back down.

Now that this large bearish candle has come down, the market has not provided a decent rebound; it’s just grinding sideways at a low level. If this state continues, it can basically be determined as a step-down decline, rather than an end to the adjustment.

Is there a rebound? Yes, but I only see it as a purely technical rebound, and it can only be short-term. Once a rebound occurs, 86K–87K is a clear pressure zone; this is not a place for you to fantasize about a V-shaped reversal, but rather a place to raise your alertness.

The RSI is already near the oversold area, which means there will be a breather, but oversold does not mean a bottom. At this position, it is completely inappropriate to talk about a bottom. The reason is simple: there is no decent buying volume, no decent counterattack, and after such a drop, there hasn’t even been a rebound.

84.6K is the first support, and today can only be considered a short-term reference point. If it cannot hold here, don’t stubbornly resist; the next target is directly 82.3K, with no good buffer zone in between.

86.8K is the first pressure point; even if a short-term rebound is successful, it is very likely to start losing momentum here. 88.1K is a stronger resistance zone, and reaching that point requires both sentiment and volume to cooperate. But even so, it still leans towards a further drop.

Overall, don’t expect a V-shaped reversal. What’s more to guard against is the N-shaped structure of rebound—drop—rebound—drop, which gradually wears down both patience and positions.

12.16 Master’s Segment Pre-Planning:

Long Entry Reference: Not currently referenced

Short Entry Reference: Short in the 88100-88500 range, Target: 86800-86000

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "catch every top and bottom," but in reality, it’s all hindsight. The bloggers worth paying attention to have trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (WeChat public account: Coin God Master Chen). For more real-time investment strategies, solutions, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading techniques, operational skills, and knowledge about candlesticks, you can join Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans has been opened, along with community live broadcasts and other quality experience projects!

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