Master Discusses Hot Topics:
This week is a standard hell week, with no need for much explanation. News is coming in one after another: non-farm payrolls, inflation, speeches from Federal Reserve officials, and Japan's interest rate decisions, all coming together to clearly indicate a desire to hit the market hard.
To give you the conclusion first, the only keyword this week is: short. No bottom fishing, no catching falling knives, and no going long when there are big wicks. I mentioned last week that with Japan's interest rate hike, every time the Bank of Japan raises rates, Bitcoin starts dropping from twenty points down.
In March, it dropped more than 20%, in July it dropped more than 20%, and in January this year, it dropped directly by 30%. At this point, some may insist that the market has already priced this in. If it were truly fully anticipated, how could it still drop so sharply every time the rate hike is confirmed?
So-called expectations are merely a placebo for retail investors. The real sell-off always happens after the shoe drops, not before the news comes out. Bitcoin has already dropped below 88K this morning, indicating that funds are fleeing in advance. When non-farm payrolls, inflation, and the U.S. stock market resonate together, you'll understand.
Looking back at the slight fluctuations over the weekend, I didn't take them seriously; liquidity is poor, and the spikes are just illusions. What truly determines life and death is this week's data. The crypto circle still lacks its own narrative; to put it bluntly, it’s just a shadow of tech stocks. With the U.S. stock market looking bad, Bitcoin has to be the first to kneel.
Back to the market, the weekly chart looks like a pile of crap, and there's no need to wash it. This morning it first plundered 87.6K, then closed below the balance zone at 88.3K. This kind of closing is weak. Don’t tell me it’s still in a consolidation range; that just means it hasn’t died completely, not a healthy trend.
As long as the price stays below 88.3K, the bears are absolutely dominant. The two key levels below are 85K and 78K. If it doesn’t hit these two levels later, it means the main force hasn’t washed out enough.
Since the rebound from November 21, the daily chart has been in a wedge for 23 days. Anyone who tells you that a wedge must reverse is just trying to trick you into taking the bait. A wedge is more of a breather before a drop. 80.6K is not a mid to long-term bottom, so seeing Bitcoin starting with a 7 later on wouldn’t be surprising at all.
The hourly level has already given a very standard bearish signal; 87.6K was plundered and then closed with an upward wick. But the real pressure lies in the four-hour level's bearish order block around 90.4K. This area is the most cost-effective position, but if it stabilizes above 90.6K, that’s a different script.
89.5K is also a hurdle; if it can’t get past it, it’s weak. The monthly line death cross at the beginning of October directly plunged to 80.6K in November. Over the weekend, the 45-day line also crossed down. In this structure, the real support is at 77.4K and 70.1K. If 77.4K rebounds, that will be after a drop.
Ethereum's performance is clearly off; logically, it should have broken 3K and dropped hard, but it only poked to 3023 and then pulled back. This is not strong; it’s still weak. Once it breaks below the 30-day line, the drop will be very fast. Today's pressure can be referenced from 3100 to 3130.
Master Looks at Trends:
86.1K to 87.6K is currently the only key defense line to watch. This is a dense trading area and also the short-term upward trend line below. As long as this level cannot be held, the market will directly weaken.
The moving averages are already in a standard reverse arrangement, with long-term moving averages pressing down from above, creating solid resistance. The price still cannot stand back above the moving averages, so the logic of decline has not been disproven. Don’t make excuses for yourself to chase longs.
From the CME gap perspective, it needs to rebound to around 91K to fill the gaps. Whether it fills or not is another matter, but being stuck in this position is inherently awkward.
Today's core reference is the 200MA; this line is the dividing line between bulls and bears. If it can’t stand above it, any rebound can only be seen as a pullback.
First Support: 87,600
Second Support: 86,100
These two levels are for calculating risk-reward ratios, not for you to mindlessly hold on. If the trend line below is broken, we can only hope that the 86K line holds firm.
Resistance Levels:
First Resistance: 92,000
Second Resistance: 94,100
Before the 200MA is effectively broken and stabilized above, treat the short-term as bearish. If the psychological level of 90K cannot stabilize, those resistance levels above are basically just decorations, no need to look at them too closely.
12.15 Master’s Wave Strategy:
Long Entry Reference: Not currently applicable
Short Entry Reference: Short in the 90400-91000 range, Target: 89500-89000
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than jumping to conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "catch every top and bottom," but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
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