This should be the most divided Federal Reserve in internal opinions—

If it weren't for the pressure and push from the "understanding king," the Federal Reserve might not even be able to reach a consensus on whether to cut interest rates.

What is the source of such a significant divergence?

Generally speaking, adjustments are primarily based on inflation data at 2%—raising rates if it exceeds that, and cutting rates if employment data is severe.

However, the current situation in the United States is that, on one hand, inflation has consistently exceeded 2%, and on the other hand, employment growth data is declining, which contradicts the underlying logic.

Thus, the meeting in the early morning was at times hawkish and at times dovish, and all of Powell's speeches we've seen this year have been almost ambiguous and quite strange, also because they themselves are in a fog.

Additionally, don't forget that the "understanding king" has another card to play; for the midterm elections, he mentioned considering using tariff revenues to distribute money to the public next year.

On the surface, it appears to be fiscal stimulus, but in reality, it would serve as a secondary ignition for the inflation engine.

If you were Powell, would you dare to raise rates in opposition? No, you wouldn't. So, you can only be forced to expand the balance sheet to provide support, turning monetary policy into a subordinate of fiscal tools.

Therefore, speculating on "how many times to cut rates" is meaningless; the Federal Reserve's operations next year can be summed up in four words: perplexing and elusive!

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