Odaily Exclusive Interview with "The First Person in the Chinese Region of Polymarket": A 225-fold Profit Journey in 25 Days

Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser (@wenser2010)

With the confirmation from Polymarket regarding the token airdrop and the return to the US market, the prediction market has become one of the few segments in the crypto space where data is still surging. In this emerging market, a trader with the ID fengdubiying (逢赌必赢) has achieved an impressive record of over 225 times asset growth in just 25 days, starting with $13,000 and rolling up to $2.93 million in profit. How did he achieve such results in a sluggish market? How did he choose the events to bet on? What unique personal strategies does he have?

With these questions in mind, Odaily Planet Daily reporter Wenser conducted a brief interview with the trader behind this ID, Lone Wolf Capital (@AnselFang), and organized the Q&A as follows.

The Path of a Crypto Whale: From $50,000 at the Lowest Point to a Turnaround Where Only BTC Contracts Can Accommodate Me

Q1: First, let’s ask the question that readers may be most concerned about: what prompted you to start your betting journey on Polymarket?

A: I personally entered the space through NFTs and have experienced various industry trends such as inscriptions, runes, and meme coins. I achieved significant results in the industry before, but during the lowest point, my assets shrank to $50,000 due to the setbacks with ORDI. However, I gradually worked my way back up to achieving substantial results through my efforts and the trends in the industry. By this year, the size of my capital meant that only BTC contracts could meet my trading depth. However, the hellish market still led to a significant drawdown for me.

So, after confirming that Polymarket would issue tokens, it was like a psychological move to start my betting journey on Polymarket. Additionally, I am a long-time follower of the League of Legends World Championship, and coincidentally, this year’s world championship was happening. Based on my previous knowledge, I chose to primarily bet on events related to the League of Legends World Championship. Most importantly, the attention on esports events is relatively high, and the liquidity depth for betting events is also quite good, allowing for a certain amount of capital to be accommodated.

There was also a sense of shifting my thinking from the contract market, which I mentioned in my previous post, “(betting in the prediction market) is just a change of battlefield for the margin of contracts.”

Odaily Planet Daily Note: The post also mentioned that his Hyperliquid address peaked at around $9 million in profit, avoided the major drop on October 11, and made about $2.8 million through automatic liquidation on short positions. However, after the October 11 crash, liquidity collapsed, and subsequent trades were unsuccessful.

Polymarket Homepage Information

Q2: What is your trading strategy for betting on the League of Legends World Championship? What do you think is the biggest reason for your substantial profits?

A: It mainly stems from my past knowledge and experience with the game League of Legends. Before the world championship started, I only invested $13,000, and then quickly rolled it to $30,000 by predicting a drop in BTC. After that, once the Swiss round of the world championship began, I rolled from $30,000 to $420,000.

The main trading strategy is still based on understanding the strengths of each team and player. Most of my bets are only placed before the match, as the pre-match capital capacity is relatively large, reaching hundreds of thousands of dollars; the liquidity after the match starts is very poor, making it difficult to buy or sell orders exceeding tens of thousands of dollars.

Most importantly, this year, League of Legends adopted a global BP (Odaily Planet Daily Note: meaning the number of times a champion can be played is limited to once in a best-of-five match) mechanism, which essentially determines the course of the match. If a team chooses tank champions, it guarantees their lineup and increases their chances of winning.

Additionally, Polymarket's trading mechanism is more flexible, allowing for the execution of stop-loss and take-profit orders within contract trades. During the BO5 match between Gen.G and KT, I adjusted my positions, ultimately reducing my losses to around $20,000, which is relatively negligible compared to the $600,000 profit I made in the previous match between Gen.G and HLE.

Of course, there are some differences between League of Legends and football events; the chances of upsets are relatively lower. After all, if a team can achieve an economic lead of around 10,000, it is indeed quite difficult to lose, unlike football where a team can turn the game around in just a few minutes with a goal or two.

Overview of Polymarket Betting Performance

Q3: What do you think are the differences between event betting in prediction markets and binary options or contract trading?

A: First of all, I think the prediction market track opened by Polymarket is a very innovative product because it is different from traditional betting platforms and offline venues. Here, users are not competing against a “house” with inherent advantages, but against other users and the truth of the events. In this process, Polymarket merely provides the trading platform and does not interfere.

Secondly, Polymarket can be seen as the shortest path to monetizing knowledge. If you have sufficient knowledge and research on a matter or field, you can make money through your judgment on events, which is quite different from the more singular long and short trades.

Furthermore, as mentioned earlier, Polymarket's trading method is more flexible; you can place limit orders and sell in advance to take profits or cut losses. Moreover, the direction of events can have different possibilities; it is not a simple “Yes or No” event (though most betting events still fall into a binary category).

Finally, Polymarket's return to the US market is already a settled matter, so the attitude of US regulatory agencies towards it is very friendly, which lays the groundwork for the growth of prediction markets in the future.

Most importantly, regarding betting on the League of Legends World Championship, to some extent, based on my observations, it has not yet entered the mainstream market's vision, and there are still certain asymmetrical opportunities. Whether it’s the developer of League of Legends, Riot Games, or those traditional capital giants and houses with significant funds, they have not yet extended their reach here. After all, the depth of Polymarket is still difficult to attract these players, and the cost-benefit ratio is not favorable. However, as the market develops and prediction markets mature, there may be players who come here to take control, manipulate matches, or engage in insider trading, etc. This is another form of “time arbitrage.” Of course, as I mentioned in my previous post, there is also a certain element of luck involved. Additionally, it is essential to consider which direction will attract more attention and generate more topics for the event organizers, which is a common thought process for seasoned contract players.

Single Profit Exceeds $800,000

Q4: What advice do you have for users with small capital entering Polymarket to start betting?

A: In simple terms, you must engage in things you have knowledge about; don’t touch what you don’t understand. Betting on events tests a person's understanding, especially with the potential for insider trading. Therefore, the events I choose are those I have researched, like the League of Legends World Championship, and my strategy from the beginning was to focus on BP, along with some comparisons of team strengths and the mystical aspects of the game (like T1's historical dominance over Chinese teams, Gen.G losing to KT, etc.).

Secondly, you can choose a broader range; you don’t have to limit yourself to esports events. Political events, macroeconomic events, etc., can also be participated in, and sports events like the NFL and NBA tend to have better liquidity.

Finally, do not trust others' judgments to place bets. This is similar to playing meme coins; if you follow someone else's lead, it’s like buying just because someone else calls a trade. The differences in capital size and trading strategies may lead to someone losing money here while making money elsewhere, but for users with small capital, they could be wiped out in one go.

Q5: Have you used other prediction market platforms, such as Kalshi or the BSC ecosystem's Opinion, etc.?

A: No. Although Polymarket's depth is average, the product experience is indeed leading the way. Kalshi requires KYC, which I can't use; Opinion previously required a corresponding access code, and like other BSC ecosystem products, many things are “copies” of leading platforms, resulting in a poor user experience. For instance, Aster's trading functions are significantly inferior to Hyperliquid, which is why many crypto whales, including myself, choose Hyperliquid, even during the major crash on October 11, where trading remained smooth. This is the difference.

Q6: Are all trades manually operated? Do you use technical means or AI products for late-stage betting?

A: Yes, all trades are manually operated; I do not use technical means. Even when I was trading meme contracts, it was all manual. As for late-stage betting, I hardly engage in it, for the same reasons mentioned earlier; it’s challenging to guarantee that something has a high degree of certainty, and the small profits you might gain from late-stage betting could ultimately lead to losses of your principal, which is certainly not worth it.