Last week, we focused on the closing situation of Bitcoin's weekly chart.
The results showed that Bitcoin's weekly close was above the 50-week moving average, closing at 104,500, while the current 50-week average is around 100,300.
This moving average serves as the dividing line between bullish and bearish trends on the weekly chart.
If the price falls below 100,300, the trend may shift from bullish to bearish;
however, the current price is stabilizing above 106,000, indicating some rebound strength.
If this week's weekly chart can continue to close positively,
then the mid-term decline adjustment that started from 122,000
is likely to come to an end.
Short-term Structure Observation
On the short-term, the daily chart has closed positively for two consecutive days,
and a reversal structure with a higher bottom and neckline breakout has appeared on the 4-hour chart.
This indicates that short-term funds are making tentative rebound moves.
However, both the weekly and daily charts still lean bearish,
and the structure has not fully reversed,
so it is recommended to remain cautious and not rush to enter the market at this stage.
Key Price Range
Support below: 104,500-105,000
Resistance above: 106,500-107,000
This range is a key pressure zone and also the 0.618 retracement level.
If the price encounters resistance and falls back here, then stabilizes and rebounds after retesting the neckline,
the next target may look towards around 111,000,
which is a concentrated liquidation area for bears.
Once broken, there may be a possibility of accelerated upward movement in the short term.
However, before the structure is confirmed,
it is not advisable to chase shorts or longs at high levels.
The most rational strategy is to wait for confirmation after a support retest before participating.
Ethereum Trend
Ethereum's rebound structure is similar,
with resistance above around 3,700.
If it can break through and confirm with a retest,
the short-term target is expected to look towards the 3,900-4,000 range.
Conversely, if 3,700 encounters resistance and falls back,
one should continue to maintain a cautious outlook.
Mid-term Trend and Sentiment
From the daily Vegas channel perspective,
Bitcoin has gained support and rebounded in the second channel,
with the upper first channel around 110,000,
which is also an important area where previous support turns into resistance.
If this week can close above the 50-day moving average and close positively,
it would indicate that the mid-term adjustment phase may be coming to an end.
Additionally, the current fear and greed index is below 40,
Market sentiment is leaning bearish, with fear dominating.
Historically, such phases are often accompanied by short-term rebounds.
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