Buy! Right Now! Bitcoin's "Last Dip" and the Liquidity Turning Point Has Arrived
In times of market panic, whales are bottom-fishing. When the tide of liquidity turns, the window of opportunity will not remain open for long.
“Buy Now” — On November 8, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor sent a clear signal to the market with these two concise and powerful words. This tweet quickly garnered 5.6M views and 43K likes, subtly shifting market sentiment. On the same day, a SoSoValue research report indicated that Bitcoin might be in the "last dip" phase.
By November 9, AiCoin data showed that BTC had surpassed $106,000, with a daily market cap increase of 4.42%. Signs of market recovery have emerged, yet most people are still hesitating.
01 Market Signals: From Whales' Calls to Actual Breakthroughs
Michael Saylor is not only a long-time evangelist for Bitcoin but also a practitioner. When he tweeted “Buy Now,” his company's Bitcoin investment portfolio was valued at $65.45 billion, holding 641,205 BTC at an average cost of $74,058, with an unrealized gain of 37.82%.
This is not an ordinary call; it is backed by real holdings that support market confidence. Saylor's other tweet, “Best Continue,” was posted when the portfolio showed strong returns, conveying a determination to continue accumulating.
The market responded quickly: on November 9, BTC broke through the $106,000 mark, ETH surpassed $3,600, and BNB exceeded $1,000. The total market cap of cryptocurrencies increased by 4.42% in one day, reaching $3.75 trillion. Mid and small-cap tokens like ZEC saw daily increases of over 12%, indicating a clear rebound in market risk appetite. These data confirm that Saylor's call is not baseless but supported by actual capital inflows.
02 Liquidity Analysis: The U.S. Treasury's "Pump" is About to Close
The core driving force behind the current volatility in Bitcoin prices does not stem from within the cryptocurrency itself but from changes in dollar liquidity in the traditional financial system. The U.S. Treasury's TGA account balance is nearing $1 trillion, acting like a giant "pump" sucking liquidity out of the market. The direct cause of this anomaly is the U.S. government shutdown crisis: the Treasury is preemptively issuing large amounts of debt to prepare cash reserves in anticipation of a potential government shutdown. The specific manifestations of liquidity tightening have already appeared:
- The SOFR and FDTR spread has widened to +30bp, indicating increased interbank financing costs.
- The Federal Reserve has been forced to restart overnight repurchase operations, injecting nearly $30 billion in liquidity into the market.
- This is the first occurrence of such operations since the 2019 repo crisis.
Dollar liquidity = bank reserves + circulating cash = total size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet - ON RRP - Treasury's TGA account. In this balance equation, the abnormally high TGA account directly leads to a reduction in dollars available for investment in risk assets.
03 Turning Point Prediction: Liquidity Turning Point in Mid-November
Liquidity tightening is temporary, and policy easing along with a resumption of fiscal spending is expected to act as a catalyst for Bitcoin's rebound. The number of days the U.S. government has been shut down has reached a historical peak, with fiscal, economic, and livelihood pressures sharply accumulating. Signs of easing have emerged in the bipartisan standoff, and the market generally expects the Senate to push for a compromise plan before the Thanksgiving recess on November 15.
Institutions like Goldman Sachs predict that the government will reopen between November 10 and 15. Once the government restarts, the Treasury will resume spending, and the TGA account balance will fall from its high, releasing locked liquidity back into the market. Historical data shows that a decline in the TGA account usually accompanies liquidity release and an increase in risk assets.
After a similar situation in 2019, the Federal Reserve not only conducted regular repurchases but also initiated a new round of quantitative easing. This script may repeat: the Federal Reserve has injected liquidity into the market through repurchase operations, and if the TGA account funds are released after the government reopens, it will create a dual liquidity benefit.
04 Bitcoin's Sensitivity and Historical Opportunities
Bitcoin is highly sensitive to liquidity, which is particularly evident in the divergence where the Nasdaq hits new highs while BTC remains under pressure. As a non-yielding asset, Bitcoin's price largely depends on the abundance of dollar liquidity. The current weakness in BTC is a direct response to the tightening of dollar liquidity.
However, this sensitivity is a double-edged sword: when liquidity recovers, Bitcoin's rebound will also exceed that of traditional assets. Historical data shows a high positive correlation between Bitcoin and dollar liquidity. The current phase is likely what the market refers to as the "last dip" — at the intersection of fiscal spending recovery and the onset of future interest rate cuts, a new liquidity cycle is about to restart. Data as of November 9 indicates that warming signals have already arrived.
Tokens like ZEC have surged, BTC has surpassed $106,000, and market opportunities are clearly visible. But clear recognition requires sufficient capital to realize. Institutional investors have already positioned themselves, while retail investors are still on the sidelines. When the government reopens and a solution is implemented, the liquidity floodgates will reopen, and the market will not give a second chance to those who hesitate.
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